Al Taawon vs Al-Ettifaq – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Al-Ettifaq at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Taawon vs Al-Ettifaq fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al Taawon and Al-Ettifaq meet at Al Taawon Arena in Pro League, Regular Season - 12. This fixture gets under way on Thursday 29 October 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
Al Taawon (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W L D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Al Taawon haven't played a Pro League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Al Taawon's home record at Al Taawon Arena: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Pro League appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Al-Ettifaq have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: W D W L D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Al-Ettifaq haven't played a Pro League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Al-Ettifaq away from home this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 10 meetings: Al Taawon 5W, Al-Ettifaq 3W, 2D.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Feb 2026, ended 0–1 with Al-Ettifaq winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Al Taawon — key trading statistics (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Al-Ettifaq — key trading statistics (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al Taawon 65% and Al-Ettifaq 56% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Taawon 53% | Al-Ettifaq 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Taawon 1.43 xG and Al-Ettifaq 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Taawon attack 0.936 / defence 1.026 | Al-Ettifaq attack 1.052 / defence 0.963. League average goals — home 1.589 / away 1.389. Data: 34 Al Taawon games / 34 Al-Ettifaq games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Al Taawon 36% | Draw 26% | Al-Ettifaq 39%. Fair-value odds: Al Taawon 2.78 | Draw 3.85 | Al-Ettifaq 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.93. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.93 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.43 / 1.50) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Ettifaq are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Ettifaq if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.93 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al Taawon 80% | Al-Ettifaq 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Taawon vs Al-Ettifaq | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Al Taawon Arena • Kick-off: Thursday 29 Oct 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Taawon 36% | Draw 26% | Al-Ettifaq 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 60% | xG Al Taawon 1.43 / Al-Ettifaq 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: Al Taawon attack 0.936 / def 1.026 | Al-Ettifaq attack 1.052 / def 0.963 | league avg home 1.589 / away 1.389 • Poisson stance: Al-Ettifaq (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Al Taawon xG
Expected Goals
1.50
Al-Ettifaq xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Taawon vs Al-Ettifaq kick off?
Al Taawon vs Al-Ettifaq is scheduled to kick off at 17:00 on Thursday 29 October 2026 at Al Taawon Arena.
Where is Al Taawon vs Al-Ettifaq being played?
The match is being played at Al Taawon Arena.
What competition is Al Taawon vs Al-Ettifaq part of?
Al Taawon vs Al-Ettifaq is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Taawon vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our statistical model gives Al Taawon a 36% chance of winning, Al-Ettifaq a 39% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Al-Ettifaq the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Taawon vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Al Taawon and Al-Ettifaq will score (BTTS).
Will Al Taawon vs Al-Ettifaq have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Taawon and Al-Ettifaq?
Record (10 meetings): Al Taawon 5W | Draws 2 | Al-Ettifaq 3W.
What form are Al Taawon and Al-Ettifaq in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Al Taawon (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Al Taawon's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against Al-Ettifaq's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.43. Flip it around — Al-Ettifaq's attack (1.05x) against Al Taawon's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.50.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ettifaq Win
36%
2.82
26%
3.87
39%
2.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
2 – 1
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Al Taawon xG
Total xG
2.93
1.50
Al-Ettifaq xG
2.82
36%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
2.59
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.49
Clean Sheet
22%
4.49
24%
4.18
Win to Nil
8%
12.63
9%
10.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 8.0 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 11.4 | 8.6 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 8.2 | 6.1 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.9 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Taawon vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Al Taawon and Al-Ettifaq expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Al Taawon and 1.50 for Al-Ettifaq, a combined total of 2.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Taawon vs Al-Ettifaq?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Al Taawon's recent record stands at 15W 8D 11L from 34 games, a 1.56 PPG return, with L-W-L-D-L in the last five. Al Taawon haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Al-Ettifaq, meanwhile, have gone 14W 8D 12L across 34 games — 1.47 PPG, with W-D-W-L-D in their last five. Al-Ettifaq haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.56 PPG for Al Taawon against 1.47 for Al-Ettifaq. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Al Taawon have managed 7W 5D 5L from 17 games — 1.53 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Ettifaq's away record stands at 7W 2D 8L across 17 trips, a 1.35 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al Taawon are averaging 1.74 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Al-Ettifaq are on 1.50 scored and 1.62 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Taawon have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 34 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Taawon
Pre-Season
Al-Ettifaq
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Taawon and Al-Ettifaq in coming into this match?
Al Taawon have gone 15W 8D 11L in their last 34 games (1.56 PPG), while Al-Ettifaq have gone 14W 8D 12L in their last 34 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Taawon at home or Al-Ettifaq away?
Al Taawon's home record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Taawon at home: 1.53 PPG; Al-Ettifaq away: 1.35 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 3 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Ettifaq won 0-4 on 5 May 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Taawon have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Al-Ettifaq — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Al Taawon
2
Draws
3
Al-Ettifaq
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Taawon and Al-Ettifaq?
From 10 meetings on record, Al Taawon have won 5, Al-Ettifaq have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al Taawon and Al-Ettifaq last play each other?
They last met on 3 February 2026, when Al-Ettifaq 1-0 Al Taawon.
Who has won more matches between Al Taawon and Al-Ettifaq?
Al Taawon have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al Taawon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Al-Ettifaq are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Taawon 65%, Al-Ettifaq 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Al Taawon) and 59% (Al-Ettifaq).
On the defensive side: Al-Ettifaq in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Taawon home games / Al-Ettifaq away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Taawon play Al-Ettifaq?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Al Taawon's games and 53% of Al-Ettifaq's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Taawon vs Al-Ettifaq usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Al Taawon's recent games and 59% of Al-Ettifaq's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Taawon and Al-Ettifaq tend to score early?
Al Taawon have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Al-Ettifaq in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.