Al Shabab 0-3 Al Taawon – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Shabab at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Shabab vs Al Taawon fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al Shabab and Al Taawon meet at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 29. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 27 May 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Al Shabab (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al Shabab have posted 6W 2D 2L at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Al Shabab are significantly better at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Al Taawon's overall Pro League record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: L W W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Al Taawon's away record: 5W 2D 3L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Al Taawon arrive in superior form — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 1.30) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Al Shabab, 0 for Al Taawon and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Jan 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Al Shabab — key trading statistics (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games).
Al Taawon — key trading statistics (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al Shabab 53% and Al Taawon 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Shabab 60% | Al Taawon 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Shabab 1.32 xG and Al Taawon 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Shabab attack 1.045 / defence 0.746 | Al Taawon attack 1.024 / defence 0.873. League average goals — home 1.449 / away 1.264. Al Shabab's defence rating of 0.746 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 58 Al Shabab games / 58 Al Taawon games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Shabab 45% | Draw 28% | Al Taawon 27%. Fair-value odds: Al Shabab 2.22 | Draw 3.57 | Al Taawon 3.70. Al Shabab hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Al Shabab as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Al Taawon (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al Shabab if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.29 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates are neutral: Al Shabab 40% | Al Taawon 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Shabab vs Al Taawon | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 27 May 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Shabab 45% | Draw 28% | Al Taawon 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 45% | xG Al Shabab 1.32 / Al Taawon 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Al Shabab attack 1.045 / def 0.746 | Al Taawon attack 1.024 / def 0.873 | league avg home 1.449 / away 1.264 • Poisson stance: Al Shabab (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Al Shabab xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Al Taawon xG
45%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Shabab vs Al Taawon kick off?
Al Shabab vs Al Taawon kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 27 May 2023 at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Shabab vs Al Taawon?
Al Shabab 0 - 3 Al Taawon.
Where is Al Shabab vs Al Taawon being played?
The match is being played at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium.
What competition is Al Shabab vs Al Taawon part of?
Al Shabab vs Al Taawon is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Shabab vs Al Taawon?
Our statistical model gives Al Shabab a 45% chance of winning, Al Taawon a 27% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Al Shabab the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Shabab vs Al Taawon?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Al Shabab and Al Taawon will score (BTTS).
Will Al Shabab vs Al Taawon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Shabab and Al Taawon?
Record (3 meetings): Al Shabab 1W | Draws 2 | Al Taawon 0W.
What form are Al Shabab and Al Taawon in?
Al Shabab (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. Al Taawon (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Al Shabab's attacking strength (1.04x league average) is weighed against Al Taawon's defensive record (0.87x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.32. Flip it around — Al Taawon's attack (1.02x) against Al Shabab's defence (0.75x) — and the away total comes out at 0.97.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.8%), 1-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Shabab Win
45%
2.23
28%
3.59
27%
3.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
10.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Al Shabab xG
Total xG
2.29
0.97
Al Taawon xG
2.23
45%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
3.67
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.20
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
38%
2.63
27%
3.75
Win to Nil
17%
5.86
7%
13.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 9.8 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.4 | 13.0 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 8.6 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Shabab vs Al Taawon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Al Shabab and Al Taawon expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Al Shabab and 0.97 for Al Taawon, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Shabab vs Al Taawon?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 58 outings, Al Shabab have picked up 1.86 PPG on a 31W 15D 12L record — L-W-L-L-L across the most recent five.
Al Taawon's form line: 21W 20D 17L from 58 games, 1.43 PPG, last five L-W-W-W-W.
Put side by side, Al Shabab are the form team by 0.43 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al Taawon.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Al Shabab have posted 2.21 PPG from 29 outings (19W 7D 3L).
On the road, Al Taawon have gone 11W 10D 8L from 29 away games — 1.48 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Shabab come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Al Shabab are averaging 1.81 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Al Taawon are on 1.43 scored and 1.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Taawon in 71%.
Defensively: Al Shabab have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 58 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Shabab
Current Season
Al Taawon
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Shabab and Al Taawon in coming into this match?
Al Shabab have gone 31W 15D 12L in their last 58 games (1.86 PPG), while Al Taawon have gone 21W 20D 17L in their last 58 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Shabab at home or Al Taawon away?
Al Shabab's home record (2.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Shabab at home: 2.21 PPG; Al Taawon away: 1.48 PPG.
Have Al Shabab or Al Taawon been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Shabab have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Al Taawon in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Al Taawon have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al Taawon won 1-5 on 3 May 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Shabab have gone 2W 0D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Al Taawon — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Al Shabab
3
Draws
5
Al Taawon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Shabab and Al Taawon?
From 10 meetings on record, Al Shabab have won 2, Al Taawon have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Al Shabab and Al Taawon last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when Al Shabab 1-5 Al Taawon.
Who has won more matches between Al Shabab and Al Taawon?
Al Taawon have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al Shabab are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 59% of the time.
Al Taawon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Shabab 38%, Al Taawon 72% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Al Shabab) and 55% (Al Taawon). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 24% and 31% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al Shabab keep a clean sheet in 55% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Shabab home games / Al Taawon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Shabab play Al Taawon?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 38% of Al Shabab's games and 72% of Al Taawon's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Shabab vs Al Taawon usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 55% of Al Shabab's matches and 55% of Al Taawon's.
Do Al Shabab and Al Taawon tend to score early?
Al Shabab have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Al Taawon in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al Taawon run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Al Shabab.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Taawon beat Al Shabab 0-3 at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 29, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Shabab 1.32 xG and Al Taawon 0.97 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Al Shabab fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Al Taawon outscored their 0.97 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Shabab attack 1.04 / defence 0.75 against Al Taawon attack 1.02 / defence 0.87, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Shabab 45% | Draw 28% | Al Taawon 27%, with Al Shabab to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Al Taawon win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Shabab 60%, Al Taawon 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Shabab's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Al Taawon's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Shabab arrived the stronger side — 1.86 PPG against 1.43. Form was overturned, with Al Taawon winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Al Shabab (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.93 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.66 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al Taawon (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.52 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.41 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.