Al Shabab 3-3 Al-Ettifaq – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Shabab at 49%, yet in-form Al-Ettifaq provide a compelling counter-argument — this Al Shabab vs Al-Ettifaq fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
King Fahd International Stadium plays host to Al Shabab versus Al-Ettifaq in Pro League, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off: Saturday 21 August 2021 at 18:50 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al Shabab have collected 0.00 PPG across 1 Pro League outings this season: 0W 0D 1L. Last five: L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Al Shabab have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Ettifaq's overall Pro League record this term: 1W 0D 0L from 1 games (3.00 PPG). Last five: W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Al-Ettifaq have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Ettifaq arrive in superior form — a 3.00 PPG advantage (3.00 vs 0.00) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using overall form) — Al Shabab register both teams scoring in 100% of relevant games, Al-Ettifaq in 100%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Shabab 1.44 xG and Al-Ettifaq 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Shabab attack 0.959 / defence 1.150 | Al-Ettifaq attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.308 / away 0.937. Data: 1 Al Shabab games / 1 Al-Ettifaq games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Al Shabab 49% | Draw 27% | Al-Ettifaq 24%. Fair-value odds: Al Shabab 2.04 | Draw 3.70 | Al-Ettifaq 4.17. Al Shabab hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Al Shabab as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Al-Ettifaq (3.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al Shabab if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.36 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Shabab vs Al-Ettifaq | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: King Fahd International Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Aug 2021, 18:50 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Shabab 49% | Draw 27% | Al-Ettifaq 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 46% | xG Al Shabab 1.44 / Al-Ettifaq 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Al Shabab attack 0.959 / def 1.150 | Al-Ettifaq attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.308 / away 0.937 • Poisson stance: Al Shabab (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Al Shabab xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Al-Ettifaq xG
46%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Shabab vs Al-Ettifaq kick off?
Al Shabab vs Al-Ettifaq kicked off at 18:50 on Saturday 21 August 2021 at King Fahd International Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Shabab vs Al-Ettifaq?
Al Shabab 3 - 3 Al-Ettifaq.
Where is Al Shabab vs Al-Ettifaq being played?
The match is being played at King Fahd International Stadium.
What competition is Al Shabab vs Al-Ettifaq part of?
Al Shabab vs Al-Ettifaq is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Shabab vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our statistical model gives Al Shabab a 49% chance of winning, Al-Ettifaq a 24% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Al Shabab the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Shabab vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Al Shabab and Al-Ettifaq will score (BTTS).
Will Al Shabab vs Al-Ettifaq have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Shabab and Al-Ettifaq?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al Shabab and Al-Ettifaq in?
Al Shabab (all comps): 0W-0D-1L in 1 | 0.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 L. Al-Ettifaq (all comps): 1W-0D-0L in 1 | 3.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Al Shabab's attack at 0.96x the league average against Al-Ettifaq's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.44 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al-Ettifaq's attack (0.85x) against Al Shabab's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 0.92.
The sample (1/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.0%), 0-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Shabab Win
49%
2.03
27%
3.74
24%
4.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
2 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Al Shabab xG
Total xG
2.36
0.92
Al-Ettifaq xG
2.03
49%
Home win
3.74
27%
Draw
4.18
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
40%
2.50
24%
4.23
Win to Nil
20%
5.07
6%
17.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 8.7 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.6 | 12.5 | 5.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.0 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Shabab vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Al Shabab and Al-Ettifaq expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Al Shabab and 0.92 for Al-Ettifaq, a combined total of 2.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Shabab vs Al-Ettifaq?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Al Shabab come into this having played 1 games, going 0W 0D 1L for 0.00 points per game. Their last five reads L. It's still early in the season for Al Shabab, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Al-Ettifaq sit at 3.00 PPG from 1 outings (1W 0D 0L), a run that reads W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Ettifaq, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Ettifaq carry the stronger recent form of the two, 3.00 PPG clear of Al Shabab — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al Shabab are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Al-Ettifaq are on 2.00 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Shabab have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; Al-Ettifaq in 100%.
Last 1 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Shabab
Early Season
Al-Ettifaq
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Shabab and Al-Ettifaq in coming into this match?
Al Shabab have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 games (0.00 PPG), while Al-Ettifaq have gone 1W 0D 0L in their last 1 (3.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al Shabab won 3-0 on 30 Dec 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Shabab have gone 1W 3D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Al-Ettifaq — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Al Shabab
5
Draws
4
Al-Ettifaq
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Shabab and Al-Ettifaq?
From 10 meetings on record, Al Shabab have won 1, Al-Ettifaq have won 4, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Al Shabab and Al-Ettifaq last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when Al-Ettifaq 1-1 Al Shabab.
Who has won more matches between Al Shabab and Al-Ettifaq?
Al-Ettifaq have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Shabab home games / Al-Ettifaq away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Shabab play Al-Ettifaq?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Al Shabab's games and 100% of Al-Ettifaq's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Shabab vs Al-Ettifaq usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Al Shabab's matches and 100% of Al-Ettifaq's.
Do Al Shabab and Al-Ettifaq tend to score early?
Al Shabab have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Al-Ettifaq in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al Shabab and Al-Ettifaq share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at King Fahd International Stadium, Regular Season - 2, as Al Shabab and Al-Ettifaq drew 3-3 in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Shabab 1.44 xG and Al-Ettifaq 0.92 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Al Shabab beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Al-Ettifaq outscored their 0.92 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Shabab attack 0.96 / defence 1.15 against Al-Ettifaq attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 1/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Al Shabab 49% | Draw 27% | Al-Ettifaq 24%, with Al Shabab to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 100% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Shabab 100%, Al-Ettifaq 100%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 100%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Ettifaq arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 0.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Al Shabab scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Ettifaq scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.