Al Riyadh 1-3 Al Taawon – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al Taawon at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Riyadh vs Al Taawon encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 16 sees Al Taawon travel to Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium to take on Al Riyadh. The game is scheduled for Sunday 18 January 2026, 17:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Al Riyadh — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 0.60 points per game. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al Riyadh, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al Riyadh have posted 2W 2D 6L at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium — 0.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al Taawon have recorded 7W 1D 2L from 10 outings — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W L W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Al Taawon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Taawon's form when playing away from home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Al Taawon — 1.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.20 vs 0.60). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Al Riyadh register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Al Taawon in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Al Riyadh, 1 for Al Taawon and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 May 2025, ended 2–3 with Al Taawon winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Al Riyadh in-play and half-time data (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Al Taawon in-play and half-time data (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Riyadh 58% versus Al Taawon 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Riyadh 56% | Al Taawon 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Riyadh 0.99 xG and Al Taawon 1.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Riyadh attack 0.738 / defence 1.076 | Al Taawon attack 1.093 / defence 0.865. League average goals — home 1.550 / away 1.448. Al Riyadh's attack strength of 0.738 is below the league average — the 0.99 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 48 Al Riyadh games / 48 Al Taawon games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Riyadh 22% | Draw 24% | Al Taawon 54%. Fair-value odds: Al Riyadh 4.55 | Draw 4.17 | Al Taawon 1.85. Al Taawon hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al Taawon are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Taawon offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.69 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 50% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: Al Riyadh 70% | Al Taawon 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Riyadh vs Al Taawon | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Jan 2026, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Riyadh 22% | Draw 24% | Al Taawon 54% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 51% | xG Al Riyadh 0.99 / Al Taawon 1.70 • Poisson strength factors: Al Riyadh attack 0.738 / def 1.076 | Al Taawon attack 1.093 / def 0.865 | league avg home 1.550 / away 1.448 • Poisson stance: Al Taawon (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.99
Al Riyadh xG
Expected Goals
1.70
Al Taawon xG
51%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Riyadh vs Al Taawon kick off?
Al Riyadh vs Al Taawon kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 18 January 2026 at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Riyadh vs Al Taawon?
Al Riyadh 1 - 3 Al Taawon.
Where is Al Riyadh vs Al Taawon being played?
The match is being played at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium.
What competition is Al Riyadh vs Al Taawon part of?
Al Riyadh vs Al Taawon is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Riyadh vs Al Taawon?
Our statistical model gives Al Riyadh a 22% chance of winning, Al Taawon a 54% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Al Taawon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Riyadh vs Al Taawon?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Al Riyadh and Al Taawon will score (BTTS).
Will Al Riyadh vs Al Taawon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Riyadh and Al Taawon?
Record (4 meetings): Al Riyadh 2W | Draws 1 | Al Taawon 1W.
What form are Al Riyadh and Al Taawon in?
Al Riyadh (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. Al Taawon (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Al Riyadh's attacking strength (0.74x league average) is weighed against Al Taawon's defensive record (0.86x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.99. The same calculation in reverse, Al Taawon's attack versus Al Riyadh's defence, projects 1.70 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.9%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.1%), 0-2 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Taawon Win
22%
4.57
24%
4.17
54%
1.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
11.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
0 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.99
Al Riyadh xG
Total xG
2.69
1.70
Al Taawon xG
4.57
22%
Home win
4.17
24%
Draw
1.85
54%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
18%
5.49
37%
2.69
Win to Nil
4%
25.09
20%
4.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 11.5 | 9.8 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 11.4 | 9.7 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.3 | 5.6 | 4.8 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Riyadh vs Al Taawon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Al Riyadh and Al Taawon expected to score?
The model projects 0.99 expected goals for Al Riyadh and 1.70 for Al Taawon, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Riyadh vs Al Taawon?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 48 outings, Al Riyadh have picked up 0.98 PPG on a 12W 11D 25L record — L-L-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Al Riyadh is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Taawon's form line: 22W 10D 16L from 48 games, 1.58 PPG, last five W-W-L-W-L. The sample for Al Taawon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Al Taawon are the form team by 0.60 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al Riyadh.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Al Riyadh have posted 1.17 PPG from 24 outings (7W 7D 10L).
On the road, Al Taawon have gone 10W 4D 10L from 24 away games — 1.42 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Al Riyadh are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.73 conceded per game recently; Al Taawon are on 1.46 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Last 48 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Riyadh
Blended
Al Taawon
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Riyadh and Al Taawon in coming into this match?
Al Riyadh have gone 12W 11D 25L in their last 48 games (0.98 PPG), while Al Taawon have gone 22W 10D 16L in their last 48 (1.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Riyadh at home or Al Taawon away?
Al Taawon's away record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Riyadh at home: 1.17 PPG; Al Taawon away: 1.42 PPG.
Have Al Riyadh or Al Taawon been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Riyadh have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Al Taawon in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al Riyadh and Al Taawon runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 15 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Al Riyadh's record when hosting Al Taawon specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Al Riyadh
2
Draws
2
Al Taawon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Riyadh and Al Taawon?
From 6 meetings on record, Al Riyadh have won 2, Al Taawon have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al Riyadh and Al Taawon last play each other?
They last met on 15 May 2026, when Al Taawon 1-1 Al Riyadh.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al Riyadh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Al Taawon see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Riyadh 50%, Al Taawon 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Al Riyadh) and 38% (Al Taawon).
On the defensive side: Al Riyadh have failed to score in 33% of games; Al Taawon in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Riyadh home games / Al Taawon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Riyadh play Al Taawon?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Al Riyadh's recent matches and 42% of Al Taawon's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Riyadh vs Al Taawon usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Al Riyadh's recent games and 38% of Al Taawon's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Riyadh and Al Taawon tend to score early?
Al Riyadh have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Al Taawon in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al Taawon cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Al Riyadh.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Taawon beat Al Riyadh 1-3 at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 16, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Riyadh 0.99 xG and Al Taawon 1.70 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Al Taawon outscored their 1.70 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Riyadh attack 0.74 / defence 1.08 against Al Taawon attack 1.09 / defence 0.86, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Riyadh 22% | Draw 24% | Al Taawon 54%, with Al Taawon to win its most likely call at 54%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Riyadh 56%, Al Taawon 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Riyadh's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Al Taawon's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Taawon arrived the stronger side — 1.58 PPG against 0.98. Form held, and they took the win. Al Riyadh (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al Taawon (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.25 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.