Al Riyadh 1-1 Al-Fayha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Fayha at 39% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Riyadh vs Al-Fayha encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al Riyadh host Al-Fayha at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 10 January 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Al Riyadh — All Games: 1W 2D 7L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 0.50 points per game. Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al Riyadh, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al Riyadh have posted 2W 2D 6L at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium — 0.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Fayha have recorded 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fayha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Fayha away from home this season: 2W 1D 7L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Al Riyadh 0.50 PPG, Al-Fayha 0.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Al Riyadh, 2 for Al-Fayha and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Feb 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Al Riyadh in-play tendencies (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Al-Fayha in-play tendencies (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); they fail to score in 48% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Riyadh 56% versus Al-Fayha 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Riyadh 56% | Al-Fayha 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Riyadh 1.27 xG and Al-Fayha 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Riyadh attack 0.773 / defence 1.084 | Al-Fayha attack 0.845 / defence 1.103. League average goals — home 1.489 / away 1.473. Al Riyadh's attack strength of 0.773 is below the league average — the 1.27 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 46 Al Riyadh games / 46 Al-Fayha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Riyadh 35% | Draw 26% | Al-Fayha 39%. Fair-value odds: Al Riyadh 2.86 | Draw 3.85 | Al-Fayha 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Fayha are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Fayha offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.62 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.2 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al Riyadh 70% | Al-Fayha 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Riyadh vs Al-Fayha | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Jan 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Riyadh 35% | Draw 26% | Al-Fayha 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 53% | xG Al Riyadh 1.27 / Al-Fayha 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Al Riyadh attack 0.773 / def 1.084 | Al-Fayha attack 0.845 / def 1.103 | league avg home 1.489 / away 1.473 • Poisson stance: Al-Fayha (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Al Riyadh xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Al-Fayha xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Riyadh vs Al-Fayha kick off?
Al Riyadh vs Al-Fayha kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 10 January 2026 at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Riyadh vs Al-Fayha?
Al Riyadh 1 - 1 Al-Fayha.
Where is Al Riyadh vs Al-Fayha being played?
The match is being played at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium.
What competition is Al Riyadh vs Al-Fayha part of?
Al Riyadh vs Al-Fayha is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Riyadh vs Al-Fayha?
Our statistical model gives Al Riyadh a 35% chance of winning, Al-Fayha a 39% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Al-Fayha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Riyadh vs Al-Fayha?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Al Riyadh and Al-Fayha will score (BTTS).
Will Al Riyadh vs Al-Fayha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Riyadh and Al-Fayha?
Record (4 meetings): Al Riyadh 0W | Draws 2 | Al-Fayha 2W.
What form are Al Riyadh and Al-Fayha in?
Al Riyadh (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.40 | L5 D-L-L-L-L. Al-Fayha (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Al Riyadh's attacking strength (0.77x league average) is weighed against Al-Fayha's defensive record (1.10x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.27. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Fayha's attack versus Al Riyadh's defence, projects 1.35 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.9%), 1-2 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Fayha Win
35%
2.86
26%
3.81
39%
2.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Al Riyadh xG
Total xG
2.62
1.35
Al-Fayha xG
2.86
35%
Home win
3.81
26%
Draw
2.58
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
26%
3.85
28%
3.56
Win to Nil
9%
11.01
11%
9.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 9.8 | 6.6 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.5 | 8.4 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 7.9 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.4 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Riyadh vs Al-Fayha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Al Riyadh and Al-Fayha expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Al Riyadh and 1.35 for Al-Fayha, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Riyadh vs Al-Fayha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al Riyadh come into this having played 46 games, going 12W 10D 24L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-L-L. The sample for Al Riyadh is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al-Fayha sit at 1.04 PPG from 46 outings (11W 15D 20L), a run that reads W-L-D-L-L across their last five. The sample for Al-Fayha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al Riyadh on 1.00 PPG, Al-Fayha on 1.04. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Al Riyadh's home form reads 7W 6D 10L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.17 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Fayha have taken 0.91 points per game from 23 outings (5W 6D 12L).
The Goals Picture
Al Riyadh are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.72 conceded per game recently; Al-Fayha are on 0.83 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Last 46 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Riyadh
Blended
Al-Fayha
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Riyadh and Al-Fayha in coming into this match?
Al Riyadh have gone 12W 10D 24L in their last 46 games (1.00 PPG), while Al-Fayha have gone 11W 15D 20L in their last 46 (1.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Riyadh at home or Al-Fayha away?
Al Riyadh's home record (1.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Riyadh at home: 1.17 PPG; Al-Fayha away: 0.91 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al Riyadh and Al-Fayha runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 4 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Al Riyadh's record when hosting Al-Fayha specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Al Riyadh
3
Draws
3
Al-Fayha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Riyadh and Al-Fayha?
From 6 meetings on record, Al Riyadh have won 0, Al-Fayha have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Al Riyadh and Al-Fayha last play each other?
They last met on 4 May 2026, when Al-Fayha 4-2 Al Riyadh.
Who has won more matches between Al Riyadh and Al-Fayha?
Al-Fayha have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al Riyadh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Al-Fayha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Riyadh 48%, Al-Fayha 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Al Riyadh) and 61% (Al-Fayha).
On the defensive side: Al Riyadh keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; Al Riyadh have failed to score in 35% of games; Al-Fayha in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Riyadh home games / Al-Fayha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Riyadh play Al-Fayha?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Al Riyadh's recent matches and 44% of Al-Fayha's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Riyadh vs Al-Fayha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Al Riyadh's recent games and 61% of Al-Fayha's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Riyadh and Al-Fayha tend to score early?
Al Riyadh have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Al-Fayha in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al Riyadh and Al-Fayha share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 14, as Al Riyadh and Al-Fayha drew 1-1 in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Riyadh 1.27 xG and Al-Fayha 1.35 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Riyadh attack 0.77 / defence 1.08 against Al-Fayha attack 0.84 / defence 1.10, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Riyadh 35% | Draw 26% | Al-Fayha 39%, with Al-Fayha to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Riyadh 56%, Al-Fayha 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Riyadh's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Fayha's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al Riyadh 1.00 PPG, Al-Fayha 1.04 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.