Al-Raed 0-2 Damac – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Raed at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Raed vs Damac fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al-Raed host Damac at King Abdullah bin Abdulaziz City in Pro League, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off is scheduled for Thursday 30 September 2021 at 16:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Al-Raed — All Games: 3W 2D 1L from 6 Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.83 points per game. Last five: L W D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.83 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 6 outings provides some defensive foundation. Al-Raed have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al-Raed have posted 2W 1D 0L at King Abdullah bin Abdulaziz City — 2.33 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 0.33 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 3 home games (67%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at King Abdullah bin Abdulaziz City. Their home PPG of 2.33 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.83 — Al-Raed are significantly better at King Abdullah bin Abdulaziz City than their overall form suggests.
Across all Pro League games this season, Damac have recorded 3W 2D 1L from 6 outings — 1.83 PPG. Last five: W D W D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.17. 2 clean sheets from 6 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Damac have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Damac have posted 1W 1D 1L from 3 away outings — 1.33 PPG. Away from home they average 1.67 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.33 is notably below their overall 1.83 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Al-Raed at 1.83 PPG versus Damac's 1.83. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Profile
Al-Raed in-play tendencies (6 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games.
Damac in-play tendencies (6 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Raed 50% versus Damac 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Raed 50% | Damac 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Raed 1.52 xG and Damac 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Raed attack 0.938 / defence 0.956 | Damac attack 1.015 / defence 1.289. League average goals — home 1.258 / away 1.209. Damac bring a strong defensive rating of 1.289 — this is suppressing Al-Raed's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 6 Al-Raed games / 6 Damac games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Raed 42% | Draw 33% | Damac 26%. Fair-value odds: Al-Raed 2.38 | Draw 3.03 | Damac 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Raed as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Raed offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.70 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al-Raed 33% | Damac 100% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Raed vs Damac | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: King Abdullah bin Abdulaziz City • Kick-off: Thursday 30 Sep 2021, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Raed 42% | Draw 33% | Damac 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 58% | xG Al-Raed 1.52 / Damac 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Raed attack 0.938 / def 0.956 | Damac attack 1.015 / def 1.289 | league avg home 1.258 / away 1.209 • Poisson stance: Al-Raed (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Al-Raed xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Damac xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Raed vs Damac kick off?
Al-Raed vs Damac kicked off at 16:30 on Thursday 30 September 2021 at King Abdullah bin Abdulaziz City.
What was the final score in Al-Raed vs Damac?
Al-Raed 0 - 2 Damac.
Where is Al-Raed vs Damac being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah bin Abdulaziz City.
What competition is Al-Raed vs Damac part of?
Al-Raed vs Damac is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Raed vs Damac?
Our statistical model gives Al-Raed a 42% chance of winning, Damac a 26% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Al-Raed the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Raed vs Damac?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Al-Raed and Damac will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Raed vs Damac have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Raed and Damac?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al-Raed and Damac in?
Al-Raed (all comps): 3W-2D-1L in 6 | 1.83 PPG | GF 1.83 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-D-W-D. Damac (all comps): 3W-2D-1L in 6 | 1.83 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.17 | L5 W-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Al-Raed's attack at 0.94x the league average against Damac's defence at 1.29x — combine the two and it projects 1.52 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Damac's attack versus Al-Raed's defence, projects 1.17 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 6/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Raed Win
42%
2.40
33%
3.07
26%
3.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Al-Raed xG
Total xG
2.70
1.17
Damac xG
2.40
42%
Home win
3.07
33%
Draw
3.89
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.74
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
31%
3.23
22%
4.58
Win to Nil
13%
7.75
6%
17.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 7.9 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 12.1 | 7.1 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.2 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.7 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Raed vs Damac?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Al-Raed and Damac expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Al-Raed and 1.17 for Damac, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Raed vs Damac?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al-Raed's recent record stands at 3W 2D 1L from 6 games, a 1.83 PPG return, with L-W-D-W-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Raed, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Damac, meanwhile, have gone 3W 2D 1L across 6 games — 1.83 PPG, with W-D-W-D-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Damac, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al-Raed on 1.83 PPG, Damac on 1.83. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Al-Raed have managed 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — 2.33 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.83 PPG overall — Al-Raed are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Damac's away record stands at 1W 1D 1L across 3 trips, a 1.33 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.83 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Damac's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Raed come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al-Raed are averaging 1.83 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Damac are on 1.50 scored and 1.17 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Damac in 67%.
Last 6 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Raed
Early Season
Damac
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Raed and Damac in coming into this match?
Al-Raed have gone 3W 2D 1L in their last 6 games (1.83 PPG), while Damac have gone 3W 2D 1L in their last 6 (1.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Raed at home or Damac away?
Al-Raed's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Raed at home: 2.33 PPG; Damac away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Al-Raed or Damac been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Raed have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Damac in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Raed and Damac runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Damac go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 May 2023, when Al-Raed won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Raed's record when hosting Damac specifically: 1W 0D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Al-Raed
1
Draws
5
Damac
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Raed and Damac?
From 8 meetings on record, Al-Raed have won 2, Damac have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Raed and Damac last play each other?
They last met on 11 May 2025, when Damac 1-0 Al-Raed.
Who has won more matches between Al-Raed and Damac?
Damac have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Raed are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Damac are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Al-Raed at 33%, Damac at 100%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 0% for Al-Raed and 67% for Damac.
On the defensive side: Al-Raed keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Raed home games / Damac away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Raed play Damac?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 33% of Al-Raed's games and 100% of Damac's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Raed vs Damac usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Al-Raed's recent games and 67% of Damac's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Raed and Damac tend to score early?
Al-Raed have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Damac in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Damac cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Al-Raed.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Damac beat Al-Raed 0-2 at King Abdullah bin Abdulaziz City, Regular Season - 7, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Raed 1.52 xG and Damac 1.17 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Al-Raed fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Damac outscored their 1.17 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Raed attack 0.94 / defence 0.96 against Damac attack 1.01 / defence 1.29, drawn from 6/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Raed 42% | Draw 33% | Damac 26%, with Al-Raed to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Damac win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Raed 50%, Damac 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Raed's trading profile (6 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Damac's trading profile (6 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Raed 1.83 PPG, Damac 1.83 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Damac win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Raed (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Damac (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.