Al-Raed 0-2 Al Shabab – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al Shabab at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Raed vs Al Shabab encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 28 as Al-Raed welcome Al Shabab to King Abdullah Sport City Stadium. Kick-off is set for Friday 27 May 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Al-Raed — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 0.60 points per game. Last five: W L L D L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Al-Raed, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al-Raed have posted 4W 1D 5L at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Al-Raed are significantly better at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al Shabab have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L D L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.70. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al Shabab, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al Shabab have posted 5W 3D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.80 PPG. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Al Shabab — 1.10 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.70 vs 0.60). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Al-Raed have won 0, Al Shabab 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 25 Nov 2021, ended 0–3 with Al Shabab winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Al-Raed in-play and half-time data (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 23% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Al Shabab in-play and half-time data (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Raed 37% versus Al Shabab 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Raed 48% | Al Shabab 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Raed 1.21 xG and Al Shabab 1.58 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Raed attack 0.673 / defence 1.187 | Al Shabab attack 1.027 / defence 1.501. League average goals — home 1.195 / away 1.297. Al-Raed's attack strength of 0.673 is below the league average — the 1.21 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Al Shabab bring a strong defensive rating of 1.501 — this is suppressing Al-Raed's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 27 Al-Raed games / 27 Al Shabab games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Raed 29% | Draw 25% | Al Shabab 46%. Fair-value odds: Al-Raed 3.45 | Draw 4.00 | Al Shabab 2.17. Al Shabab hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al Shabab at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Shabab offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.79 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Al-Raed 20% | Al Shabab 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Raed vs Al Shabab | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: King Abdullah Sport City Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 27 May 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Raed 29% | Draw 25% | Al Shabab 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 56% | xG Al-Raed 1.21 / Al Shabab 1.58 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Raed attack 0.673 / def 1.187 | Al Shabab attack 1.027 / def 1.501 | league avg home 1.195 / away 1.297 • Poisson stance: Al Shabab (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Al-Raed xG
Expected Goals
1.58
Al Shabab xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Raed vs Al Shabab kick off?
Al-Raed vs Al Shabab kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 27 May 2022 at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Raed vs Al Shabab?
Al-Raed 0 - 2 Al Shabab.
Where is Al-Raed vs Al Shabab being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium.
What competition is Al-Raed vs Al Shabab part of?
Al-Raed vs Al Shabab is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Raed vs Al Shabab?
Our statistical model gives Al-Raed a 29% chance of winning, Al Shabab a 46% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Al Shabab the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Raed vs Al Shabab?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Al-Raed and Al Shabab will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Raed vs Al Shabab have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Raed and Al Shabab?
Record (1 meetings): Al-Raed 0W | Draws 0 | Al Shabab 1W.
What form are Al-Raed and Al Shabab in?
Al-Raed (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-L-D-L. Al Shabab (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Al-Raed's attack at 0.67x the league average against Al Shabab's defence at 1.50x — combine the two and it projects 1.21 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al Shabab's attack versus Al-Raed's defence, projects 1.58 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 27/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 0-1 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Shabab Win
29%
3.43
25%
4.03
46%
2.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.7%
Away win
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Al-Raed xG
Total xG
2.79
1.58
Al Shabab xG
3.43
29%
Home win
4.03
25%
Draw
2.17
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
21%
4.86
30%
3.35
Win to Nil
6%
16.67
14%
7.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 9.7 | 7.7 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 11.7 | 9.3 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 7.1 | 5.6 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.9 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Raed vs Al Shabab?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Al-Raed and Al Shabab expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Al-Raed and 1.58 for Al Shabab, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Raed vs Al Shabab?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al-Raed come into this having played 27 games, going 8W 6D 13L for 1.11 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-D-L. The sample for Al-Raed is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al Shabab sit at 1.85 PPG from 27 outings (14W 8D 5L), a run that reads W-L-D-L-W across their last five. The sample for Al Shabab is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Shabab carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.74 PPG clear of Al-Raed — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Al-Raed's home form reads 6W 2D 5L across 13 games on their own ground, a 1.54 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.11 PPG overall — Al-Raed are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Al Shabab have taken 1.46 points per game from 13 outings (5W 4D 4L).
The Goals Picture
Al-Raed are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Al Shabab are on 1.81 scored and 1.30 conceded.
Last 27 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Raed
Blended
Al Shabab
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Raed and Al Shabab in coming into this match?
Al-Raed have gone 8W 6D 13L in their last 27 games (1.11 PPG), while Al Shabab have gone 14W 8D 5L in their last 27 (1.85 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Raed at home or Al Shabab away?
Al-Raed's home record (1.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Raed at home: 1.54 PPG; Al Shabab away: 1.46 PPG.
Have Al-Raed or Al Shabab been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Raed have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Al Shabab in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Raed and Al Shabab runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Al Shabab have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Nov 2021, when Al Shabab won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Raed's record when hosting Al Shabab specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Al-Raed
1
Draws
6
Al Shabab
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Raed and Al Shabab?
From 8 meetings on record, Al-Raed have won 1, Al Shabab have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Raed and Al Shabab last play each other?
They last met on 25 February 2025, when Al-Raed 1-2 Al Shabab.
Who has won more matches between Al-Raed and Al Shabab?
Al Shabab have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Raed are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Al Shabab are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Raed 23%, Al Shabab 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 31% (Al-Raed) and 69% (Al Shabab).
On the defensive side: Al-Raed keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Al-Raed have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Raed home games / Al Shabab away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Raed play Al Shabab?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 23% of Al-Raed's recent matches and 62% of Al Shabab's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Raed vs Al Shabab usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of Al-Raed's recent games and 69% of Al Shabab's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Raed and Al Shabab tend to score early?
Al-Raed have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Al Shabab in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al Shabab cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Al-Raed.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Shabab beat Al-Raed 0-2 at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium, Regular Season - 28, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Raed 1.21 xG and Al Shabab 1.58 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Al-Raed fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Raed attack 0.67 / defence 1.19 against Al Shabab attack 1.03 / defence 1.50, drawn from 27/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Raed 29% | Draw 25% | Al Shabab 46%, with Al Shabab to win its most likely call at 46%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Raed 48%, Al Shabab 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Raed's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Al Shabab's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Shabab arrived the stronger side — 1.85 PPG against 1.11. That form edge translated into the three points. Al-Raed (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al Shabab (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.77 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.