Al-Raed 2-0 Al-Hazm – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Raed at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Raed vs Al-Hazm fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
King Abdullah bin Abdulaziz City plays host to Al-Raed versus Al-Hazm in Pro League, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off: Wednesday 25 August 2021 at 17:05 UTC.
Form
Al-Raed (all games): 1W 0D 1L across 2 Pro League fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 2 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Al-Raed have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Hazm's overall Pro League record this term: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: D D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Al-Hazm have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form ledger tips toward Al-Raed. A 0.50 PPG lead over Al-Hazm (1.50 vs 1.00) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Raed 1.41 xG and Al-Hazm 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Raed attack 0.890 / defence 1.013 | Al-Hazm attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.376 / away 1.074. Data: 2 Al-Raed games / 2 Al-Hazm games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Al-Raed 48% | Draw 27% | Al-Hazm 25%. Fair-value odds: Al-Raed 2.08 | Draw 3.70 | Al-Hazm 4.00. Al-Raed hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Raed at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Raed if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.33 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.5 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Raed vs Al-Hazm | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: King Abdullah bin Abdulaziz City • Kick-off: Wednesday 25 Aug 2021, 17:05 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Raed 48% | Draw 27% | Al-Hazm 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 46% | xG Al-Raed 1.41 / Al-Hazm 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Raed attack 0.890 / def 1.013 | Al-Hazm attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.376 / away 1.074 • Poisson stance: Al-Raed (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Al-Raed xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Al-Hazm xG
46%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Raed vs Al-Hazm kick off?
Al-Raed vs Al-Hazm kicked off at 17:05 on Wednesday 25 August 2021 at King Abdullah bin Abdulaziz City.
What was the final score in Al-Raed vs Al-Hazm?
Al-Raed 2 - 0 Al-Hazm.
Where is Al-Raed vs Al-Hazm being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah bin Abdulaziz City.
What competition is Al-Raed vs Al-Hazm part of?
Al-Raed vs Al-Hazm is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Raed vs Al-Hazm?
Our statistical model gives Al-Raed a 48% chance of winning, Al-Hazm a 25% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Al-Raed the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Raed vs Al-Hazm?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Al-Raed and Al-Hazm will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Raed vs Al-Hazm have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Raed and Al-Hazm?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al-Raed and Al-Hazm in?
Al-Raed (all comps): 1W-0D-1L in 2 | 1.50 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L. Al-Hazm (all comps): 0W-2D-0L in 2 | 1.00 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 2.50 | L5 D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Al-Raed's attack rating (0.89) and Al-Hazm's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.41 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al-Hazm's attack (0.85x) against Al-Raed's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 0.93.
The sample (2/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.0%), 0-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Raed Win
48%
2.07
27%
3.69
25%
4.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 0
9.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Al-Raed xG
Total xG
2.33
0.93
Al-Hazm xG
2.07
48%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
4.05
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
40%
2.52
24%
4.09
Win to Nil
19%
5.23
6%
16.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 9.0 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.7 | 12.6 | 5.8 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 8.9 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Raed vs Al-Hazm?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Al-Raed and Al-Hazm expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Al-Raed and 0.93 for Al-Hazm, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Raed vs Al-Hazm?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 2 outings, Al-Raed have picked up 1.50 PPG on a 1W 0D 1L record — W-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Al-Raed, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Hazm's form line: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games, 1.00 PPG, last five D-D. It's still early in the season for Al-Hazm, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Al-Raed are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al-Hazm.
Attack vs Defence
Al-Raed are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Al-Hazm are on 2.50 scored and 2.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Raed have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; Al-Hazm in 100%.
Defensively: Al-Raed have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Raed
Early Season
Al-Hazm
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Raed and Al-Hazm in coming into this match?
Al-Raed have gone 1W 0D 1L in their last 2 games (1.50 PPG), while Al-Hazm have gone 0W 2D 0L in their last 2 (1.00 PPG).
Have Al-Raed or Al-Hazm been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Raed have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Al-Hazm in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Raed have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Al-Hazm — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Al-Raed
0
Draws
2
Al-Hazm
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Raed and Al-Hazm?
From 4 meetings on record, Al-Raed have won 2, Al-Hazm have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al-Raed and Al-Hazm last play each other?
They last met on 7 April 2024, when Al-Raed 2-0 Al-Hazm.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Raed home games / Al-Hazm away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Raed play Al-Hazm?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Al-Raed's recent matches and 100% of Al-Hazm's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Raed vs Al-Hazm usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Al-Raed's matches and 100% of Al-Hazm's.
Do Al-Raed and Al-Hazm tend to score early?
Al-Raed have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Al-Hazm in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Raed cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Al-Hazm.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Raed beat Al-Hazm 2-0 at King Abdullah bin Abdulaziz City, Regular Season - 3, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Raed 1.41 xG and Al-Hazm 0.93 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Al-Hazm landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Raed attack 0.89 / defence 1.01 against Al-Hazm attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 2/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Al-Raed 48% | Draw 27% | Al-Hazm 25%, with Al-Raed to win its most likely call at 48%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Raed 50%, Al-Hazm 100%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Raed arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Al-Raed scored 2 against a 0.50 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. Al-Hazm managed 0 against a 2.50 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.