Al-Raed 1-2 Al-Ettifaq – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Raed at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Raed vs Al-Ettifaq fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al-Raed host Al-Ettifaq at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 3 March 2023 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Raed stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Al-Raed, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Raed's form when playing at home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 games at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Ettifaq have recorded 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ettifaq, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Ettifaq's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Al-Raed at 1.20 PPG versus Al-Ettifaq's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Al-Raed, 0 for Al-Ettifaq and 2 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 15 Sep 2022, ended 2–1 with Al-Raed winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Al-Raed in-play tendencies (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Al-Ettifaq in-play tendencies (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Raed 46% versus Al-Ettifaq 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Raed 52% | Al-Ettifaq 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Raed 1.45 xG and Al-Ettifaq 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Raed attack 1.063 / defence 1.334 | Al-Ettifaq attack 0.578 / defence 0.931. League average goals — home 1.467 / away 1.178. Data: 48 Al-Raed games / 48 Al-Ettifaq games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Raed 49% | Draw 27% | Al-Ettifaq 23%. Fair-value odds: Al-Raed 2.04 | Draw 3.70 | Al-Ettifaq 4.35. Al-Raed hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Raed at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Raed offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.36 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al-Raed 60% | Al-Ettifaq 10% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Raed vs Al-Ettifaq | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: King Abdullah Sport City Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 3 Mar 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Raed 49% | Draw 27% | Al-Ettifaq 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 46% | xG Al-Raed 1.45 / Al-Ettifaq 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Raed attack 1.063 / def 1.334 | Al-Ettifaq attack 0.578 / def 0.931 | league avg home 1.467 / away 1.178 • Poisson stance: Al-Raed (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Al-Raed xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Al-Ettifaq xG
46%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Raed vs Al-Ettifaq kick off?
Al-Raed vs Al-Ettifaq kicked off at 13:00 on Friday 3 March 2023 at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Raed vs Al-Ettifaq?
Al-Raed 1 - 2 Al-Ettifaq.
Where is Al-Raed vs Al-Ettifaq being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium.
What competition is Al-Raed vs Al-Ettifaq part of?
Al-Raed vs Al-Ettifaq is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Raed vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our statistical model gives Al-Raed a 49% chance of winning, Al-Ettifaq a 23% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Al-Raed the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Raed vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Al-Raed and Al-Ettifaq will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Raed vs Al-Ettifaq have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Raed and Al-Ettifaq?
Record (3 meetings): Al-Raed 1W | Draws 2 | Al-Ettifaq 0W.
What form are Al-Raed and Al-Ettifaq in?
Al-Raed (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-W-D-D. Al-Ettifaq (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Al-Raed's attacking strength (1.06x league average) is weighed against Al-Ettifaq's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.45. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Ettifaq's attack versus Al-Raed's defence, projects 0.91 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.1%), 0-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Raed Win
49%
2.02
27%
3.65
23%
4.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
2 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Al-Raed xG
Total xG
2.36
0.91
Al-Ettifaq xG
2.02
49%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
4.31
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
40%
2.48
23%
4.27
Win to Nil
20%
5.02
5%
18.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 8.6 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 13.7 | 12.4 | 5.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 9.0 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Raed vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Al-Raed and Al-Ettifaq expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Al-Raed and 0.91 for Al-Ettifaq, a combined total of 2.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Raed vs Al-Ettifaq?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al-Raed's recent record stands at 16W 9D 23L from 48 games, a 1.19 PPG return, with L-L-W-D-D in the last five. The sample for Al-Raed is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Ettifaq, meanwhile, have gone 13W 14D 21L across 48 games — 1.10 PPG, with L-W-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Al-Ettifaq is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al-Raed on 1.19 PPG, Al-Ettifaq on 1.10. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Al-Raed have managed 10W 3D 11L from 24 games — 1.38 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Ettifaq's away record stands at 5W 8D 11L across 24 trips, a 0.96 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Raed come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Raed are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; Al-Ettifaq are on 1.15 scored and 1.42 conceded.
Last 48 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Raed
Blended
Al-Ettifaq
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Raed and Al-Ettifaq in coming into this match?
Al-Raed have gone 16W 9D 23L in their last 48 games (1.19 PPG), while Al-Ettifaq have gone 13W 14D 21L in their last 48 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Raed at home or Al-Ettifaq away?
Al-Raed's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Raed at home: 1.38 PPG; Al-Ettifaq away: 0.96 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Al-Raed's record when hosting Al-Ettifaq specifically: 0W 3D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Al-Raed
5
Draws
1
Al-Ettifaq
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Raed and Al-Ettifaq?
From 8 meetings on record, Al-Raed have won 2, Al-Ettifaq have won 1, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Al-Raed and Al-Ettifaq last play each other?
They last met on 2 March 2025, when Al-Raed 1-1 Al-Ettifaq.
Who has won more matches between Al-Raed and Al-Ettifaq?
Al-Raed have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Raed are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Al-Ettifaq are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Raed 38%, Al-Ettifaq 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Al-Raed) and 42% (Al-Ettifaq).
On the defensive side: Al-Raed keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Al-Ettifaq in 33%; Al-Raed have failed to score in 29% of games; Al-Ettifaq in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Raed home games / Al-Ettifaq away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Raed play Al-Ettifaq?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Al-Raed's recent matches and 33% of Al-Ettifaq's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Raed vs Al-Ettifaq usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Al-Raed's recent games and 42% of Al-Ettifaq's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Raed and Al-Ettifaq tend to score early?
Al-Raed have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Al-Ettifaq in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Al-Ettifaq defy the odds to beat Al-Raed 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ettifaq beat Al-Raed 1-2 at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium, Regular Season - 19, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Raed 1.45 xG and Al-Ettifaq 0.91 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Al-Ettifaq outscored their 0.91 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Raed attack 1.06 / defence 1.33 against Al-Ettifaq attack 0.58 / defence 0.93, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Raed 49% | Draw 27% | Al-Ettifaq 23%, with Al-Raed to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Al-Ettifaq win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Raed 52%, Al-Ettifaq 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Raed's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Ettifaq's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Raed 1.19 PPG, Al-Ettifaq 1.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Ettifaq win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Ettifaq (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.04 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.