Al-Raed 0-0 Al-Ahli Jeddah – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Al-Ahli Jeddah at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Raed vs Al-Ahli Jeddah fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis

Al-Ahli Jeddah make the trip to King Abdullah Sport City Stadium to face Al-Raed in Pro League, Regular Season - 33. The match kicks off on Thursday 23 May 2024 at 19:00 UTC.

Form

Al-Raed (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L D L D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.

Al-Raed's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.

Al-Ahli Jeddah's overall Pro League record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: L W L W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.10. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Al-Ahli Jeddah away from home this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 away games — 2.00 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.70 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.50 PPG for Al-Raed against 1.70 for Al-Ahli Jeddah. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — Al-Raed lead 2W to 0W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.7 per game from 3 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Dec 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

Trading & In-Play

Al-Raed — key trading statistics (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.

Al-Ahli Jeddah — key trading statistics (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 81% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Raed 53% versus Al-Ahli Jeddah 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Raed 56% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 62%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Raed 1.37 xG and Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.65 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Raed attack 0.899 / defence 0.985 | Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.224 / defence 1.058. League average goals — home 1.440 / away 1.366. Al-Ahli Jeddah have an above-average attack strength of 1.224 — the away xG of 1.65 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 62 Al-Raed games / 32 Al-Ahli Jeddah games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Al-Raed 30% | Draw 28% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 42%. Fair-value odds: Al-Raed 3.33 | Draw 3.57 | Al-Ahli Jeddah 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.02. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.02 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.37 / 1.65) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Al-Ahli Jeddah are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Ahli Jeddah if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.02 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate: Al-Raed 50% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 60% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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