Al-Raed 2-1 Al-Adalah – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Raed at 40% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Raed vs Al-Adalah encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Al-Adalah travel to King Abdullah Sport City Stadium to take on Al-Raed in Pro League (matchday 5). The game is scheduled for Saturday 1 October 2022 at 17:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Al-Raed stand at 4W 1D 5L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Al-Raed's form when playing at home: 3W 1D 6L across their last 10 home games (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across their last 4 games, Al-Adalah have recorded 0W 1D 3L — 0.25 PPG. Last five: L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.25 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 4 outings (25%).
On current form, Al-Raed have the edge — a 1.05 PPG advantage (1.30 vs 0.25) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call (from Al-Raed's last 10 home games and Al-Adalah's last 4 games). Al-Raed's 20% and Al-Adalah's 0% BTTS rates are both low — BTTS No is the strongly backed angle.
In-Play Data
Al-Raed trading profile (last 4 games): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 50% of their matches; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games.
Al-Adalah trading profile (last 4 games): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games; they fail to score in 100% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams scored in only 50% of Al-Raed's games and 0% of Al-Adalah's. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Al-Raed 50% | Al-Adalah 25%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Raed 0.91 xG and Al-Adalah 0.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Raed attack 0.819 / defence 0.909 | Al-Adalah attack 0.646 / defence 1.001. League average goals — home 1.107 / away 1.086. Al-Adalah's attack rating of 0.646 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.64. Data: built from Al-Raed's last 34 games and Al-Adalah's last 4.
Result probabilities: Al-Raed 40% | Draw 36% | Al-Adalah 24%. Fair-value odds: Al-Raed 2.50 | Draw 2.81 | Al-Adalah 4.09. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 36% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 20% | BTTS Yes probability 28% | Total xG 1.54. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 80% probability — total xG of 1.54 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No has firm model support at 72% — Al-Adalah's lower xG of 0.64 gives a real chance they fail to score.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Raed as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 36% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Raed offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.54 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 80% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Al-Raed's last 10 home games and Al-Adalah's last 4 games) averaging 1.5 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 72%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al-Raed 20% (last 10 home games) | Al-Adalah 0% (last 4 games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Raed vs Al-Adalah | Competition: Pro League, matchday 5 | Venue: King Abdullah Sport City Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 1 October 2022 at 17:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Raed 40% | Draw 36% | Al-Adalah 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 20% (Under 80%) | BTTS Yes 28% (No 72%) | xG Al-Raed 0.91 / Al-Adalah 0.64 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Raed attack 0.819 / def 0.909 | Al-Adalah attack 0.646 / def 1.001 | league avg home 1.107 / away 1.086 • Poisson stance: Al-Raed (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.91
Al-Raed xG
Expected Goals
0.64
Al-Adalah xG
28%
BTTS
46%
Over 1.5
20%
Over 2.5
7%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Al-Raed vs Al-Adalah FAQs
What time does Al-Raed vs Al-Adalah kick off?
Al-Raed vs Al-Adalah kicked off at 17:30 UK time on Saturday 1 October 2022 at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Raed vs Al-Adalah?
Al-Raed 2 - 1 Al-Adalah.
Where is Al-Raed vs Al-Adalah being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium.
What competition is Al-Raed vs Al-Adalah part of?
Al-Raed vs Al-Adalah is a Pro League fixture (matchday 5) (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Raed vs Al-Adalah?
Our statistical model gives Al-Raed a 40% chance of winning, Al-Adalah a 24% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making Al-Raed the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Raed vs Al-Adalah?
Our model estimates a 28% probability that both Al-Raed and Al-Adalah will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (72%).
Will Al-Raed vs Al-Adalah have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 20%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (80%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Al-Raed's attacking strength (0.82x league average) is weighed against Al-Adalah's defensive record (1.00x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.91. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Adalah's attack versus Al-Raed's defence, projects 0.64 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Al-Raed's last 34 games and Al-Adalah's last 4 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 22.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (17.7%), 1-1 (13.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 55% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Raed Win
40%
2.50
36%
2.81
24%
4.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
21.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
19.3%
Home win
0 – 1
13.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.91
Al-Raed xG
Total xG
1.54
0.64
Al-Adalah xG
2.50
40%
Home win
2.81
36%
Draw
4.09
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
46%
Over 1.5
2.17
54%
Under 1.5
1.85
20%
Over 2.5
5.00
80%
Under 2.5
1.25
7%
Over 3.5
14.29
93%
Under 3.5
1.08
2%
Over 4.5
50.00
98%
Under 4.5
1.02
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
28%
BTTS Yes
3.56
72%
BTTS No
1.39
Clean Sheet
53%
1.89
40%
2.48
Win to Nil
21%
4.74
10%
10.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 21.3 | 13.6 | 4.3 | 0.9 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 19.3 | 12.3 | 3.9 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 8.8 | 5.6 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Al-Raed vs Al-Adalah Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Raed vs Al-Adalah?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 22.9%.
How many goals are Al-Raed and Al-Adalah expected to score?
The model projects 0.91 expected goals for Al-Raed and 0.64 for Al-Adalah, a combined total of 1.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Raed vs Al-Adalah?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 4 outings, Al-Raed have picked up 1.50 PPG on a 2W 0D 2L record — L-W-L-W across the most recent five.
Al-Adalah's form line: 0W 1D 3L from 4 games, 0.25 PPG, last five L-L-D-L.
Put side by side, Al-Raed are the form team by 1.25 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al-Adalah.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Raed are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Al-Adalah are on 0.00 scored and 1.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Adalah in 0%.
Last 4 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Raed
Early Season
Al-Adalah
Early Season
Al-Raed (Home) vs Al-Adalah (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Al-Raed
Early Season
Al-Adalah
Early Season
❓ Al-Raed vs Al-Adalah Form FAQs
What form are Al-Raed and Al-Adalah in coming into this match?
Al-Raed have gone 2W 0D 2L in their last 4 games (1.50 PPG), while Al-Adalah have gone 0W 1D 3L in their last 4 (0.25 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 2 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from October 2022. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent in our data was on 11 March 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Al-Raed
0
Draws
0
Al-Adalah
Recent Meetings
❓ Al-Raed vs Al-Adalah H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Raed and Al-Adalah?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Al-Raed have won 2, Al-Adalah have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al-Raed and Al-Adalah last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 11 March 2023: Al-Adalah 0-3 Al-Raed.
Who has won more matches between Al-Raed and Al-Adalah?
Al-Raed have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Raed see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 100% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Al-Adalah are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Al-Raed 50% BTTS, Al-Adalah 0%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Al-Raed) and 25% (Al-Adalah).
On the defensive side: Al-Adalah in 100%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Raed home games / Al-Adalah away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Al-Raed vs Al-Adalah Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Al-Raed and Al-Adalah matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Al-Raed's recent matches and 0% of Al-Adalah's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Al-Raed and Al-Adalah matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Al-Raed's recent games and 25% of Al-Adalah's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Raed and Al-Adalah matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 50% of Al-Raed's recent matches and 75% of Al-Adalah's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Raed edge out Al-Adalah 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Raed beat Al-Adalah 2-1 at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium, Regular Season - 5, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Raed 0.91 xG and Al-Adalah 0.64 xG, a combined 1.54. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Al-Raed beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Raed attack 0.82 / defence 0.91 against Al-Adalah attack 0.65 / defence 1.00, drawn from 34/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Raed 40% | Draw 36% | Al-Adalah 24%, with Al-Raed to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 20%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 46% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 28% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Raed 50%, Al-Adalah 25%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 25%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Raed's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Adalah's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 0% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Raed arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.25. That form edge translated into the three points. Al-Raed scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm. Al-Adalah scored 1 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.