Al-Qadisiyah FC 1-1 Damac – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Qadisiyah FC at 61% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Damac encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees Damac travel to Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium to take on Al-Qadisiyah FC. The game is scheduled for Saturday 27 December 2025, 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Qadisiyah FC stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Qadisiyah FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Qadisiyah FC's home record at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium: 7W 3D 0L from 10 Pro League appearances (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Al-Qadisiyah FC are significantly better at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all Pro League games this season, Damac have recorded 0W 5D 5L from 10 outings — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L D D D D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Damac, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Damac have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Al-Qadisiyah FC are in the better shape of the two on current Pro League data — 1.20 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 0.50). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Al-Qadisiyah FC register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, Damac in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Al-Qadisiyah FC, 1 for Damac and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Mar 2025, ended 0–1 with Damac winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Al-Qadisiyah FC in-play tendencies (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Damac in-play tendencies (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Qadisiyah FC 49% versus Damac 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Qadisiyah FC 51% | Damac 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Qadisiyah FC 2.07 xG and Damac 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.145 / defence 0.766 | Damac attack 0.839 / defence 1.209. League average goals — home 1.495 / away 1.488. Damac bring a strong defensive rating of 1.209 — this is suppressing Al-Qadisiyah FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Al-Qadisiyah FC's defence rating of 0.766 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 43 Al-Qadisiyah FC games / 43 Damac games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Qadisiyah FC 61% | Draw 24% | Damac 15%. Fair-value odds: Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.64 | Draw 4.17 | Damac 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Al-Qadisiyah FC (61%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 3.03. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.03 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Qadisiyah FC are the pick at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.03 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: Al-Qadisiyah FC 80% | Damac 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Damac | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Dec 2025, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Qadisiyah FC 61% | Draw 24% | Damac 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 56% | xG Al-Qadisiyah FC 2.07 / Damac 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.145 / def 0.766 | Damac attack 0.839 / def 1.209 | league avg home 1.495 / away 1.488 • Poisson stance: Al-Qadisiyah FC (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.07
Al-Qadisiyah FC xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Damac xG
56%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Damac kick off?
Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Damac kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 27 December 2025 at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Damac?
Al-Qadisiyah FC 1 - 1 Damac.
Where is Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Damac being played?
The match is being played at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium.
What competition is Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Damac part of?
Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Damac is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Damac?
Our statistical model gives Al-Qadisiyah FC a 61% chance of winning, Damac a 15% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Al-Qadisiyah FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Damac?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Al-Qadisiyah FC and Damac will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Damac have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Qadisiyah FC and Damac?
Record (2 meetings): Al-Qadisiyah FC 1W | Draws 0 | Damac 1W.
What form are Al-Qadisiyah FC and Damac in?
Al-Qadisiyah FC (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-L-W-L. Damac (all comps): 0W-5D-5L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Al-Qadisiyah FC's attacking strength (1.15x league average) is weighed against Damac's defensive record (1.21x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.07. The same calculation in reverse, Damac's attack versus Al-Qadisiyah FC's defence, projects 0.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.9%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.4%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Qadisiyah FC Win
61%
1.63
24%
4.14
15%
6.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.07
Al-Qadisiyah FC xG
Total xG
3.03
0.96
Damac xG
1.63
61%
Home win
4.14
24%
Draw
6.81
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
38%
2.60
13%
7.92
Win to Nil
23%
4.26
2%
53.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.0 | 9.6 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.4 | 9.9 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.2 | 6.9 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | – |
| 4 | 3.7 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Damac?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are Al-Qadisiyah FC and Damac expected to score?
The model projects 2.07 expected goals for Al-Qadisiyah FC and 0.96 for Damac, a combined total of 3.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Damac?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al-Qadisiyah FC's recent record stands at 26W 7D 10L from 43 games, a 1.98 PPG return, with W-D-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Al-Qadisiyah FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Damac, meanwhile, have gone 9W 13D 21L across 43 games — 0.93 PPG, with L-D-D-D-D in their last five. The sample for Damac is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Qadisiyah FC by 1.05 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Damac heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Al-Qadisiyah FC have managed 16W 3D 2L from 21 games — 2.43 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.98 PPG overall — Al-Qadisiyah FC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Damac's away record stands at 3W 6D 12L across 21 trips, a 0.71 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Qadisiyah FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Qadisiyah FC are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.93 conceded per game recently; Damac are on 1.05 scored and 1.56 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Qadisiyah FC have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 43 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Qadisiyah FC
Blended
Damac
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Qadisiyah FC and Damac in coming into this match?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have gone 26W 7D 10L in their last 43 games (1.98 PPG), while Damac have gone 9W 13D 21L in their last 43 (0.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Qadisiyah FC at home or Damac away?
Al-Qadisiyah FC's home record (2.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Qadisiyah FC at home: 2.43 PPG; Damac away: 0.71 PPG.
Have Al-Qadisiyah FC or Damac been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Damac in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 9 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Al-Qadisiyah FC's record when hosting Damac specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Al-Qadisiyah FC
2
Draws
1
Damac
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Qadisiyah FC and Damac?
From 4 meetings on record, Al-Qadisiyah FC have won 1, Damac have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Qadisiyah FC and Damac last play each other?
They last met on 9 April 2026, when Damac 1-1 Al-Qadisiyah FC.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Qadisiyah FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 62% of the time.
Damac are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Qadisiyah FC 48%, Damac 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Al-Qadisiyah FC) and 48% (Damac).
On the defensive side: Al-Qadisiyah FC keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Damac in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Qadisiyah FC home games / Damac away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Qadisiyah FC play Damac?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's recent matches and 57% of Damac's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Damac usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's recent games and 48% of Damac's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Qadisiyah FC and Damac tend to score early?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Damac in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Qadisiyah FC and Damac share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Qadisiyah FC and Damac finished level at 1-1 at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium, Regular Season - 11, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Qadisiyah FC 2.07 xG and Damac 0.96 xG, a combined 3.03. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Al-Qadisiyah FC fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.15 / defence 0.77 against Damac attack 0.84 / defence 1.21, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Qadisiyah FC 61% | Draw 24% | Damac 15%, with Al-Qadisiyah FC to win its most likely call at 61%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Qadisiyah FC 51%, Damac 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Qadisiyah FC's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Damac's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Qadisiyah FC arrived the stronger side — 1.98 PPG against 0.93. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Al-Qadisiyah FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.86 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.