Al-Qadisiyah FC 2-1 Damac – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Qadisiyah FC at 48% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Damac encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Damac travel to Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium to take on Al-Qadisiyah FC in Pro League (matchday 8). The game is scheduled for Friday 25 October 2024 at 16:40 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 7 matches, Al-Qadisiyah FC stand at 3W 1D 3L — 1.43 PPG. Last five: L D W L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.86 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets from 7 games (57%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 29% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Al-Qadisiyah FC's home record over their last 3 home games: 2W 0D 1L (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 0.33 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from their last 3 home games (67%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.43 — Al-Qadisiyah FC are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, Damac have recorded 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Damac have gone 1W 3D 6L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Al-Qadisiyah FC are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 0.53 PPG ahead (1.43 vs 0.90). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
In-Play Profile
Al-Qadisiyah FC in-play tendencies (last 7 games, 3 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games; they keep a clean sheet 57% of the time.
Damac in-play tendencies (last 7 games, 3 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 86% of their matches; of the 4 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games; Over 3.5 in 57%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Qadisiyah FC 29% versus Damac 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Qadisiyah FC 43% | Damac 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.58 xG and Damac 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 0.899 / defence 0.861 | Damac attack 0.948 / defence 1.247. League average goals — home 1.413 / away 1.353. Damac's defence rating of 1.247 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Al-Qadisiyah FC's projected output up. Data: built from Al-Qadisiyah FC's last 7 games and Damac's last 41.
Result probabilities: Al-Qadisiyah FC 48% | Draw 25% | Damac 27%. Fair-value odds: Al-Qadisiyah FC 2.06 | Draw 4.00 | Damac 3.77. Al-Qadisiyah FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Qadisiyah FC are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Qadisiyah FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.69 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 50% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Al-Qadisiyah FC 0% (last 3 home games) | Damac 70% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Damac | Competition: Pro League, matchday 8 | Venue: Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 25 October 2024 at 16:40 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Qadisiyah FC 48% | Draw 25% | Damac 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% (Under 50%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.58 / Damac 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 0.899 / def 0.861 | Damac attack 0.948 / def 1.247 | league avg home 1.413 / away 1.353 • Poisson stance: Al-Qadisiyah FC (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
Al-Qadisiyah FC xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Damac xG
53%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Damac FAQs
What time does Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Damac kick off?
Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Damac kicked off at 16:40 UK time on Friday 25 October 2024 at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Damac?
Al-Qadisiyah FC 2 - 1 Damac.
Where is Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Damac being played?
The match is being played at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium.
What competition is Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Damac part of?
Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Damac is a Pro League fixture (matchday 8) (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Damac?
Our statistical model gives Al-Qadisiyah FC a 48% chance of winning, Damac a 27% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Al-Qadisiyah FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Damac?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Al-Qadisiyah FC and Damac will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Damac have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50% — effectively a coin flip.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Al-Qadisiyah FC's attacking strength (0.90x league average) is weighed against Damac's defensive record (1.25x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.58. The same calculation in reverse, Damac's attack versus Al-Qadisiyah FC's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Al-Qadisiyah FC's last 7 games and Damac's last 41 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Qadisiyah FC Win
48%
2.06
25%
4.00
27%
3.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
Al-Qadisiyah FC xG
Total xG
2.69
1.10
Damac xG
2.06
48%
Home win
4.00
25%
Draw
3.77
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
33%
3.02
21%
4.87
Win to Nil
16%
6.22
5%
18.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 7.5 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 11.9 | 6.6 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.4 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 5.0 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Damac Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Damac?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Al-Qadisiyah FC and Damac expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Al-Qadisiyah FC and 1.10 for Damac, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Damac?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al-Qadisiyah FC's recent record stands at 3W 1D 3L from 7 games, a 1.43 PPG return, with L-D-W-L-L in the last five.
Damac, meanwhile, have gone 2W 1D 4L across 7 games — 1.00 PPG, with W-L-L-W-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Qadisiyah FC by 0.43 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Damac heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Al-Qadisiyah FC have managed 2W 0D 1L from their last 3 home games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.43 PPG overall — Al-Qadisiyah FC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Damac's away record stands at 0W 0D 3L across their last 3 away games, a 0.00 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Damac's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Qadisiyah FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Qadisiyah FC are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.86 conceded per game recently; Damac are on 1.43 scored and 1.71 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Qadisiyah FC have seen both teams score in 29% of their recent games.
Defensively: Al-Qadisiyah FC have kept a clean sheet in 57% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 7 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Qadisiyah FC
Early Season
Damac
Early Season
Al-Qadisiyah FC (Home) vs Damac (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Al-Qadisiyah FC
Early Season
Damac
Early Season
❓ Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Damac Form FAQs
What form are Al-Qadisiyah FC and Damac in coming into this match?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have gone 3W 1D 3L in their last 7 games (1.43 PPG), while Damac have gone 2W 1D 4L in their last 7 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Qadisiyah FC at home or Damac away?
Al-Qadisiyah FC's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Qadisiyah FC at home: 2.00 PPG; Damac away: 0.00 PPG.
Have Al-Qadisiyah FC or Damac been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have kept a clean sheet in 57% of their recent games, Damac in 14%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 4 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from October 2024. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent was on 9 April 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
Al-Qadisiyah FC's record when hosting Damac specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Al-Qadisiyah FC
2
Draws
1
Damac
Recent Meetings
❓ Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Damac H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Qadisiyah FC and Damac?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Al-Qadisiyah FC have won 1, Damac have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Qadisiyah FC and Damac last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 9 April 2026: Damac 1-1 Al-Qadisiyah FC.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Qadisiyah FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
Damac are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Al-Qadisiyah FC 0% BTTS, Damac 67%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Al-Qadisiyah FC) and 67% (Damac).
On the defensive side: Al-Qadisiyah FC keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches; Al-Qadisiyah FC have failed to score in 33% of games; Damac in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Qadisiyah FC home games / Damac away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Damac Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Al-Qadisiyah FC and Damac matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's recent matches and 67% of Damac's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Al-Qadisiyah FC and Damac matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's recent games and 67% of Damac's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Qadisiyah FC and Damac matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 100% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's recent matches and 100% of Damac's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Qadisiyah FC edge out Damac 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Qadisiyah FC beat Damac 2-1 at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 8, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.58 xG and Damac 1.10 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 0.90 / defence 0.86 against Damac attack 0.95 / defence 1.25, drawn from 7/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Qadisiyah FC 48% | Draw 25% | Damac 27%, with Al-Qadisiyah FC to win its most likely call at 48%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Qadisiyah FC 43%, Damac 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Qadisiyah FC's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 57% of the time, and conceded here.
Damac's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Qadisiyah FC arrived the stronger side — 1.43 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.