Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ettifaq – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Qadisiyah FC at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ettifaq encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 7 as Al-Qadisiyah FC welcome Al-Ettifaq to Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium. Kick-off is set for Thursday 10 September 2026 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Al-Qadisiyah FC — All Games: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 2.30 points per game. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.70 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Al-Qadisiyah FC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Qadisiyah FC at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium this season: 6W 4D 0L from 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Ettifaq have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D W L D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Al-Ettifaq haven't played a Pro League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Al-Ettifaq's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Al-Qadisiyah FC carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.10 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.30 vs 1.20. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Al-Qadisiyah FC, 1 for Al-Ettifaq and 1 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 3.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 5 Apr 2026, ended 2–3 with Al-Ettifaq winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Al-Qadisiyah FC in-play tendencies (34 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 56%.
Al-Ettifaq in-play tendencies (34 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Qadisiyah FC 68% and Al-Ettifaq 56% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Qadisiyah FC 71% | Al-Ettifaq 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.74 xG and Al-Ettifaq 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.201 / defence 0.877 | Al-Ettifaq attack 1.049 / defence 0.979. League average goals — home 1.476 / away 1.400. Data: 35 Al-Qadisiyah FC games / 34 Al-Ettifaq games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Al-Qadisiyah FC 48% | Draw 24% | Al-Ettifaq 28%. Fair-value odds: Al-Qadisiyah FC 2.08 | Draw 4.17 | Al-Ettifaq 3.57. Al-Qadisiyah FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.02. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.02 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.74 / 1.29) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Qadisiyah FC are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Qadisiyah FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.02 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al-Qadisiyah FC 70% | Al-Ettifaq 40% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ettifaq | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 10 Sep 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Qadisiyah FC 48% | Draw 24% | Al-Ettifaq 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 60% | xG Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.74 / Al-Ettifaq 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.201 / def 0.877 | Al-Ettifaq attack 1.049 / def 0.979 | league avg home 1.476 / away 1.400 • Poisson stance: Al-Qadisiyah FC (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.74
Al-Qadisiyah FC xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Al-Ettifaq xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ettifaq kick off?
Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ettifaq is scheduled to kick off at 18:00 on Thursday 10 September 2026 at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium.
Where is Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ettifaq being played?
The match is being played at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium.
What competition is Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ettifaq part of?
Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ettifaq is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our statistical model gives Al-Qadisiyah FC a 48% chance of winning, Al-Ettifaq a 28% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Al-Qadisiyah FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Ettifaq will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ettifaq have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Ettifaq?
Record (4 meetings): Al-Qadisiyah FC 2W | Draws 1 | Al-Ettifaq 1W.
What form are Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Ettifaq in?
Al-Qadisiyah FC (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Al-Ettifaq (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Al-Qadisiyah FC's attack at 1.20x the league average against Al-Ettifaq's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 1.74 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Ettifaq's attack versus Al-Qadisiyah FC's defence, projects 1.29 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 35/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Qadisiyah FC Win
48%
2.09
24%
4.23
28%
3.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.74
Al-Qadisiyah FC xG
Total xG
3.02
1.29
Al-Ettifaq xG
2.09
48%
Home win
4.23
24%
Draw
3.51
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.48
Clean Sheet
28%
3.63
18%
5.67
Win to Nil
13%
7.57
5%
19.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 6.3 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 10.9 | 7.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 9.4 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 5.5 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Ettifaq expected to score?
The model projects 1.74 expected goals for Al-Qadisiyah FC and 1.29 for Al-Ettifaq, a combined total of 3.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ettifaq?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al-Qadisiyah FC's recent record stands at 23W 8D 3L from 34 games, a 2.26 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Qadisiyah FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Ettifaq, meanwhile, have gone 14W 8D 12L across 34 games — 1.47 PPG, with W-D-W-L-D in their last five. Al-Ettifaq haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Qadisiyah FC by 0.79 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al-Ettifaq heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Al-Qadisiyah FC have managed 10W 6D 0L from 16 games — 2.25 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Ettifaq's away record stands at 7W 2D 7L across 16 trips, a 1.44 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Qadisiyah FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al-Qadisiyah FC are averaging 2.44 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Al-Ettifaq are on 1.50 scored and 1.62 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Qadisiyah FC have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games.
Last 34 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Qadisiyah FC
Early Season
Al-Ettifaq
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Ettifaq in coming into this match?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have gone 23W 8D 3L in their last 34 games (2.26 PPG), while Al-Ettifaq have gone 14W 8D 12L in their last 34 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Qadisiyah FC at home or Al-Ettifaq away?
Al-Qadisiyah FC's home record (2.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Qadisiyah FC at home: 2.25 PPG; Al-Ettifaq away: 1.44 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Ettifaq runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 5 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 Feb 2026, when Al-Qadisiyah FC won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Qadisiyah FC's record when hosting Al-Ettifaq specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Al-Qadisiyah FC
1
Draws
1
Al-Ettifaq
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Ettifaq?
From 4 meetings on record, Al-Qadisiyah FC have won 2, Al-Ettifaq have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Ettifaq last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2026, when Al-Ettifaq 3-2 Al-Qadisiyah FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Ettifaq?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Qadisiyah FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Al-Ettifaq are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Qadisiyah FC 56%, Al-Ettifaq 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Al-Qadisiyah FC) and 56% (Al-Ettifaq). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Qadisiyah FC keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Al-Ettifaq in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Qadisiyah FC home games / Al-Ettifaq away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Qadisiyah FC play Al-Ettifaq?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's recent matches and 50% of Al-Ettifaq's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ettifaq usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's matches and 56% of Al-Ettifaq's.
Do Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Ettifaq tend to score early?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Al-Ettifaq in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.