Al Okhdood 1-1 Al Shabab – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Al Shabab at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Okhdood vs Al Shabab encounter.

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Match Analysis

Al Okhdood host Al Shabab at Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 22 November 2024 at 15:05 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Pro League games this season, Al Okhdood have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: L L D W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Al Okhdood, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium, Al Okhdood have gone 2W 2D 6L this season (10 games, 0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.

Al Shabab — All Games: 7W 0D 3L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 2.10 PPG. Last five: L L W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Al Shabab, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Al Shabab's away record: 6W 1D 3L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Al Shabab — 1.30 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.10 vs 0.80). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Al Okhdood have won 1, Al Shabab 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.5 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 22 Dec 2023, ended 1–0 with Al Okhdood winning.

With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

Trading Patterns

Al Okhdood in-play and half-time data (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.

Al Shabab in-play and half-time data (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 46% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 27% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Okhdood 46% versus Al Shabab 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Okhdood 52% | Al Shabab 46%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al Okhdood 0.79 xG and Al Shabab 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Okhdood attack 0.911 / defence 0.934 | Al Shabab attack 1.020 / defence 0.601. League average goals — home 1.441 / away 1.266. Al Shabab's defence strength of 0.601 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 44 Al Okhdood games / 44 Al Shabab games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Al Okhdood 24% | Draw 30% | Al Shabab 46%. Fair-value odds: Al Okhdood 4.17 | Draw 3.33 | Al Shabab 2.17. Al Shabab hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.99. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.99 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Al Shabab as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Shabab offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 1.99 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 32% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 38% on No. Form rates corroborate: Al Okhdood 50% | Al Shabab 10% BTTS from recent games.

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