Al Okhdood 0-6 Al-Hilal Saudi FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al-Hilal Saudi FC (60%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al Okhdood face Al-Hilal Saudi FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 21 as Al Okhdood welcome Al-Hilal Saudi FC to Prince Hathloul bin Abdul Aziz Sports City. Kick-off is set for Thursday 5 February 2026 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Okhdood stand at 1W 2D 7L from 10 Pro League matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L D L L D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Al Okhdood, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Okhdood's form when playing at home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 games at Prince Hathloul bin Abdul Aziz Sports City this term (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have recorded 7W 3D 0L from 10 outings — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W W D D D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's form when playing away from home: 6W 4D 0L across 10 road games this term (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Al-Hilal Saudi FC are 1.90 PPG ahead (2.40 vs 0.50), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
The previous 5 encounters between these sides heavily favour Al-Hilal Saudi FC, who boast 5 victories compared to 0 for Al Okhdood.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.4 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 25 Sep 2025, ended 1–3 with Al-Hilal Saudi FC winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won 5 of 5 previous encounters, and at 3.4 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Al Okhdood trading profile (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC trading profile (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; they lead at the break 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 55%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Okhdood 49% versus Al-Hilal Saudi FC 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Okhdood 47% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 74%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Okhdood 1.06 xG and Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Okhdood attack 0.800 / defence 1.068 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.430 / defence 0.898. League average goals — home 1.473 / away 1.351. Al-Hilal Saudi FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.430 — the away xG of 2.06 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 53 Al Okhdood games / 53 Al-Hilal Saudi FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Okhdood 18% | Draw 22% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 60%. Fair-value odds: Al Okhdood 5.56 | Draw 4.55 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.67. The model has a clear lean to Al-Hilal Saudi FC (60%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.12. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.12 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Hilal Saudi FC are the pick at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.12 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.4 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: Al Okhdood 70% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Okhdood vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Prince Hathloul bin Abdul Aziz Sports City • Kick-off: Thursday 5 Feb 2026, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Okhdood 18% | Draw 22% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 60% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 58% | xG Al Okhdood 1.06 / Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.06 • Poisson strength factors: Al Okhdood attack 0.800 / def 1.068 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.430 / def 0.898 | league avg home 1.473 / away 1.351 • Poisson stance: Al-Hilal Saudi FC (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Al Okhdood xG
Expected Goals
2.06
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
58%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Okhdood vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC kick off?
Al Okhdood vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC kicked off at 17:30 on Thursday 5 February 2026 at Prince Hathloul bin Abdul Aziz Sports City.
What was the final score in Al Okhdood vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Al Okhdood 0 - 6 Al-Hilal Saudi FC.
Where is Al Okhdood vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC being played?
The match is being played at Prince Hathloul bin Abdul Aziz Sports City.
What competition is Al Okhdood vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC part of?
Al Okhdood vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Okhdood vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our statistical model gives Al Okhdood a 18% chance of winning, Al-Hilal Saudi FC a 60% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Al-Hilal Saudi FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Okhdood vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Al Okhdood and Al-Hilal Saudi FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al Okhdood vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Okhdood and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Record (5 meetings): Al Okhdood 0W | Draws 0 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 5W.
What form are Al Okhdood and Al-Hilal Saudi FC in?
Al Okhdood (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-L-L-D. Al-Hilal Saudi FC (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Al Okhdood's attack rating (0.80) and Al-Hilal Saudi FC's defence rating (0.90), the model arrives at 1.06 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Hilal Saudi FC's attack versus Al Okhdood's defence, projects 2.06 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.9%), 0-2 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Hilal Saudi FC Win
18%
5.50
22%
4.59
60%
1.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.6%
Draw
0 – 2
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Al Okhdood xG
Total xG
3.12
2.06
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
5.50
18%
Home win
4.59
22%
Draw
1.67
60%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.74
42%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
13%
7.87
35%
2.88
Win to Nil
2%
43.26
21%
4.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 9.1 | 9.4 | 6.5 | 3.3 | 1.4 |
| 1 | 4.7 | 9.6 | 9.9 | 6.8 | 3.5 | 1.5 |
| 2 | 2.5 | 5.1 | 5.3 | 3.6 | 1.9 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Okhdood vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are Al Okhdood and Al-Hilal Saudi FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Al Okhdood and 2.06 for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, a combined total of 3.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Okhdood vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 53 outings, Al Okhdood have picked up 0.83 PPG on a 11W 11D 31L record — L-D-L-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Al Okhdood is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's form line: 37W 11D 5L from 53 games, 2.30 PPG, last five W-W-D-D-D. The sample for Al-Hilal Saudi FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Al-Hilal Saudi FC are the form team by 1.47 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al Okhdood.
Venue Form
On home soil, Al Okhdood have posted 0.85 PPG from 26 outings (5W 7D 14L).
On the road, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 16W 7D 3L from 26 away games — 2.12 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Hilal Saudi FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al Okhdood are averaging 0.91 goals scored and 1.72 conceded per game recently; Al-Hilal Saudi FC are on 2.68 scored and 1.11 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 64%.
Defensively: Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 53 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Okhdood
Blended
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Okhdood and Al-Hilal Saudi FC in coming into this match?
Al Okhdood have gone 11W 11D 31L in their last 53 games (0.83 PPG), while Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 37W 11D 5L in their last 53 (2.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Okhdood at home or Al-Hilal Saudi FC away?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's away record (2.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Okhdood at home: 0.85 PPG; Al-Hilal Saudi FC away: 2.12 PPG.
Have Al Okhdood or Al-Hilal Saudi FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Okhdood have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 5 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Al-Hilal Saudi FC have taken the last 6 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 Feb 2026, when Al-Hilal Saudi FC won 0-6 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al Okhdood's record when hosting Al-Hilal Saudi FC specifically: 0W 0D 3L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Al Okhdood
0
Draws
6
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Okhdood and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
From 6 meetings on record, Al Okhdood have won 0, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al Okhdood and Al-Hilal Saudi FC last play each other?
They last met on 5 February 2026, when Al Okhdood 0-6 Al-Hilal Saudi FC.
Who has won more matches between Al Okhdood and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al Okhdood are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Al Okhdood at 62%, Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 69%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 54% for Al Okhdood and 69% for Al-Hilal Saudi FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 23% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 31%; Al Okhdood have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Okhdood home games / Al-Hilal Saudi FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Okhdood play Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Al Okhdood's games and 69% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Okhdood vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Al Okhdood's matches and 69% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's.
Do Al Okhdood and Al-Hilal Saudi FC tend to score early?
Al Okhdood have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 92% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al-Hilal Saudi FC run riot with a 0-6 hammering of Al Okhdood.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Hilal Saudi FC beat Al Okhdood 0-6 at Prince Hathloul bin Abdul Aziz Sports City, Regular Season - 21, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Okhdood 1.06 xG and Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.06 xG, a combined 3.12. The scoreboard read 0-6 for 6 actual goals. Al Okhdood fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Al-Hilal Saudi FC outscored their 2.06 projection by 3.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Okhdood attack 0.80 / defence 1.07 against Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.43 / defence 0.90, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Okhdood 18% | Draw 22% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 60%, with Al-Hilal Saudi FC to win its most likely call at 60%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Okhdood 47%, Al-Hilal Saudi FC 74%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Okhdood's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Hilal Saudi FC arrived the stronger side — 2.30 PPG against 0.83. Form held, and they took the win. Al Okhdood (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.04 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 6 against a 1.73 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Hilal Saudi FC (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 2.50 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.31 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.