Al-Nassr 4-1 Damac – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Nassr at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Nassr vs Damac fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 1 as Al-Nassr welcome Damac to Mrsool Park. Kick-off is set for Friday 13 August 2021 at 17:05 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Nassr 1.21 xG and Damac 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Nassr attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Damac attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.235 / away 0.995. Data: 0 Al-Nassr games / 0 Damac games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Al-Nassr 41% | Draw 29% | Damac 30%. Fair-value odds: Al-Nassr 2.44 | Draw 3.45 | Damac 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.18. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.18 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Nassr at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Nassr offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.18 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Nassr vs Damac | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Mrsool Park • Kick-off: Friday 13 Aug 2021, 17:05 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Nassr 41% | Draw 29% | Damac 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 44% | xG Al-Nassr 1.21 / Damac 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Nassr attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Damac attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.235 / away 0.995 • Poisson stance: Al-Nassr (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Al-Nassr xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Damac xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Nassr vs Damac kick off?
Al-Nassr vs Damac kicked off at 17:05 on Friday 13 August 2021 at Mrsool Park.
What was the final score in Al-Nassr vs Damac?
Al-Nassr 4 - 1 Damac.
Where is Al-Nassr vs Damac being played?
The match is being played at Mrsool Park.
What competition is Al-Nassr vs Damac part of?
Al-Nassr vs Damac is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Nassr vs Damac?
Our statistical model gives Al-Nassr a 41% chance of winning, Damac a 30% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Al-Nassr the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Nassr vs Damac?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Al-Nassr and Damac will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Nassr vs Damac have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Nassr and Damac?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al-Nassr and Damac in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Al-Nassr's attack rating (0.85) and Damac's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.21 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Damac's attack versus Al-Nassr's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 0/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.0%), 1-0 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Nassr Win
41%
2.42
29%
3.45
30%
3.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
11.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Al-Nassr xG
Total xG
2.18
0.97
Damac xG
2.42
41%
Home win
3.45
29%
Draw
3.38
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.29
56%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
38%
2.65
30%
3.34
Win to Nil
16%
6.39
9%
11.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.3 | 11.0 | 5.4 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.6 | 13.3 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 8.0 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Nassr vs Damac?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Al-Nassr and Damac expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Al-Nassr and 0.97 for Damac, a combined total of 2.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Nassr vs Damac?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Nassr
Pre-Season
Damac
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Nassr and Damac runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 21 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Al-Nassr have taken the last 10 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Aug 2021, when Al-Nassr won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Nassr's record when hosting Damac specifically: 5W 0D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
10
Al-Nassr
0
Draws
0
Damac
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Nassr and Damac?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Nassr have won 10, Damac have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al-Nassr and Damac last play each other?
They last met on 21 May 2026, when Al-Nassr 4-1 Damac.
Who has won more matches between Al-Nassr and Damac?
Al-Nassr have the better head-to-head record, with 10 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Nassr home games / Damac away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Dominant Al-Nassr run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Damac.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Nassr beat Damac 4-1 at Mrsool Park, Regular Season - 1, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Nassr 1.21 xG and Damac 0.97 xG, a combined 2.18. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Al-Nassr beat their projection by 2.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Nassr attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Damac attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 0/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Nassr 41% | Draw 29% | Damac 30%, with Al-Nassr to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.