Al-Nassr 1-1 Al Taawon – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Nassr at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Nassr vs Al Taawon fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al-Nassr host Al Taawon at Al-Awwal Park in Pro League, Regular Season - 32. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 16 May 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Nassr stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. They are averaging 2.80 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Al-Nassr's form when playing at home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 games at Al-Awwal Park this term (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Al Taawon — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al Taawon have posted 5W 2D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
On current form, Al-Nassr have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 1.30) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 6 previous meetings, Al-Nassr have won 3, Al Taawon 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Jan 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Al-Nassr in-play tendencies (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 94% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; they lead at the break 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 54%.
Al Taawon in-play tendencies (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 28% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Nassr 71% versus Al Taawon 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Nassr 78% | Al Taawon 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Nassr 1.41 xG and Al Taawon 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Nassr attack 1.247 / defence 1.047 | Al Taawon attack 0.740 / defence 0.732. League average goals — home 1.550 / away 1.468. Al Taawon's defence strength of 0.732 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 65 Al-Nassr games / 65 Al Taawon games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Nassr 43% | Draw 26% | Al Taawon 30%. Fair-value odds: Al-Nassr 2.33 | Draw 3.85 | Al Taawon 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Nassr are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Nassr offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.55 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Al-Nassr 80% | Al Taawon 20%.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Nassr vs Al Taawon | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Al-Awwal Park • Kick-off: Friday 16 May 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Nassr 43% | Draw 26% | Al Taawon 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 51% | xG Al-Nassr 1.41 / Al Taawon 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Nassr attack 1.247 / def 1.047 | Al Taawon attack 0.740 / def 0.732 | league avg home 1.550 / away 1.468 • Poisson stance: Al-Nassr (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Al-Nassr xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Al Taawon xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Nassr vs Al Taawon kick off?
Al-Nassr vs Al Taawon kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 16 May 2025 at Al-Awwal Park.
What was the final score in Al-Nassr vs Al Taawon?
Al-Nassr 1 - 1 Al Taawon.
Where is Al-Nassr vs Al Taawon being played?
The match is being played at Al-Awwal Park.
What competition is Al-Nassr vs Al Taawon part of?
Al-Nassr vs Al Taawon is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Nassr vs Al Taawon?
Our statistical model gives Al-Nassr a 43% chance of winning, Al Taawon a 30% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Al-Nassr the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Nassr vs Al Taawon?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Al-Nassr and Al Taawon will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Nassr vs Al Taawon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Nassr and Al Taawon?
Record (6 meetings): Al-Nassr 3W | Draws 1 | Al Taawon 2W.
What form are Al-Nassr and Al Taawon in?
Al-Nassr (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-L-W. Al Taawon (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Al-Nassr's attacking strength (1.25x league average) is weighed against Al Taawon's defensive record (0.73x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.41. The same calculation in reverse, Al Taawon's attack versus Al-Nassr's defence, projects 1.14 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 65/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.4%), 1-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Nassr Win
43%
2.31
26%
3.79
30%
3.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Al-Nassr xG
Total xG
2.55
1.14
Al Taawon xG
2.31
43%
Home win
3.79
26%
Draw
3.30
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
32%
3.12
24%
4.11
Win to Nil
14%
7.19
7%
13.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 8.9 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 12.5 | 7.1 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 8.9 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.2 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Nassr vs Al Taawon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Al-Nassr and Al Taawon expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Al-Nassr and 1.14 for Al Taawon, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Nassr vs Al Taawon?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al-Nassr come into this having played 65 games, going 45W 10D 10L for 2.23 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-L-W.
On the other side, Al Taawon sit at 1.54 PPG from 65 outings (27W 19D 19L), a run that reads D-L-W-L-L across their last five.
Al-Nassr carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.69 PPG clear of Al Taawon — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Al-Nassr's home form reads 20W 7D 5L across 32 games on their own ground, a 2.09 PPG return.
Away from home, Al Taawon have taken 1.47 points per game from 32 outings (12W 11D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Nassr come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al-Nassr are averaging 2.66 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Al Taawon are on 1.31 scored and 1.05 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Nassr have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games.
Defensively: Al Taawon in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 65 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Nassr
Current Season
Al Taawon
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Nassr and Al Taawon in coming into this match?
Al-Nassr have gone 45W 10D 10L in their last 65 games (2.23 PPG), while Al Taawon have gone 27W 19D 19L in their last 65 (1.54 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Nassr at home or Al Taawon away?
Al-Nassr's home record (2.09 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Nassr at home: 2.09 PPG; Al Taawon away: 1.47 PPG.
Have Al-Nassr or Al Taawon been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Nassr have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Al Taawon in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Nassr and Al Taawon runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to January 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 28 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Al-Nassr go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Aug 2025, when Al-Nassr won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Nassr's record when hosting Al Taawon specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Al-Nassr
2
Draws
2
Al Taawon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Nassr and Al Taawon?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Nassr have won 6, Al Taawon have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Nassr and Al Taawon last play each other?
They last met on 28 August 2026, when Al-Nassr 2-1 Al Taawon.
Who has won more matches between Al-Nassr and Al Taawon?
Al-Nassr have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Nassr are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 94% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 72% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Al Taawon see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Nassr 72%, Al Taawon 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 75% (Al-Nassr) and 28% (Al Taawon).
On the defensive side: Al Taawon in 38%; Al Taawon in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Nassr home games / Al Taawon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Nassr play Al Taawon?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 72% of Al-Nassr's games and 41% of Al Taawon's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Nassr vs Al Taawon usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 75% of Al-Nassr's recent games and 28% of Al Taawon's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Nassr and Al Taawon tend to score early?
Al-Nassr have had a goal before half-time in 94% of their recent matches, Al Taawon in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Nassr and Al Taawon share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Al-Awwal Park, Regular Season - 32, as Al-Nassr and Al Taawon drew 1-1 in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Nassr 1.41 xG and Al Taawon 1.14 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Nassr attack 1.25 / defence 1.05 against Al Taawon attack 0.74 / defence 0.73, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Nassr 43% | Draw 26% | Al Taawon 30%, with Al-Nassr to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Nassr 78%, Al Taawon 37%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Nassr's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Al Taawon's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Nassr arrived the stronger side — 2.23 PPG against 1.54. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Al-Nassr (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.53 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.