Al-Nassr 4-2 Al Shabab – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Nassr at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Nassr vs Al Shabab encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 26 as Al-Nassr welcome Al Shabab to Mrsool Park. Kick-off is set for Friday 6 May 2022 at 18:50 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Nassr have gone 7W 1D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.20 PPG return. Last five: W W L D W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Al-Nassr, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al-Nassr have posted 6W 1D 3L at Mrsool Park — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Shabab stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W W L D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.60. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al Shabab, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Shabab's form when playing away from home: 5W 4D 1L across 10 road games this term (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Al-Nassr carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.20 vs 1.60. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Al-Nassr, 1 for Al Shabab and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 5 Nov 2021, ended 0–1 with Al Shabab winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Al-Nassr trading profile (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Al Shabab trading profile (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Nassr 56% versus Al Shabab 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Nassr 64% | Al Shabab 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Nassr 1.81 xG and Al Shabab 1.56 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Nassr attack 1.123 / defence 1.258 | Al Shabab attack 1.068 / defence 1.372. League average goals — home 1.175 / away 1.164. Al Shabab bring a strong defensive rating of 1.372 — this is suppressing Al-Nassr's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 25 Al-Nassr games / 25 Al Shabab games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Nassr 44% | Draw 23% | Al Shabab 34%. Fair-value odds: Al-Nassr 2.27 | Draw 4.35 | Al Shabab 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.37. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.37 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.81 / 1.56) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Nassr as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Nassr offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.37 combined xG gives a 66% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 66% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al-Nassr 50% | Al Shabab 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Nassr vs Al Shabab | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Mrsool Park • Kick-off: Friday 6 May 2022, 18:50 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Nassr 44% | Draw 23% | Al Shabab 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 66% | xG Al-Nassr 1.81 / Al Shabab 1.56 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Nassr attack 1.123 / def 1.258 | Al Shabab attack 1.068 / def 1.372 | league avg home 1.175 / away 1.164 • Poisson stance: Al-Nassr (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.81
Al-Nassr xG
Expected Goals
1.56
Al Shabab xG
66%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Nassr vs Al Shabab kick off?
Al-Nassr vs Al Shabab kicked off at 18:50 on Friday 6 May 2022 at Mrsool Park.
What was the final score in Al-Nassr vs Al Shabab?
Al-Nassr 4 - 2 Al Shabab.
Where is Al-Nassr vs Al Shabab being played?
The match is being played at Mrsool Park.
What competition is Al-Nassr vs Al Shabab part of?
Al-Nassr vs Al Shabab is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Nassr vs Al Shabab?
Our statistical model gives Al-Nassr a 44% chance of winning, Al Shabab a 34% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Al-Nassr the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Nassr vs Al Shabab?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Al-Nassr and Al Shabab will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Nassr vs Al Shabab have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Nassr and Al Shabab?
Record (1 meetings): Al-Nassr 0W | Draws 0 | Al Shabab 1W.
What form are Al-Nassr and Al Shabab in?
Al-Nassr (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-L-D-W. Al Shabab (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Al-Nassr's attack at 1.12x the league average against Al Shabab's defence at 1.37x — combine the two and it projects 1.81 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al Shabab's attack versus Al-Nassr's defence, projects 1.56 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 25/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Nassr Win
44%
2.28
23%
4.43
34%
2.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 2
7.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.81
Al-Nassr xG
Total xG
3.37
1.56
Al Shabab xG
2.28
44%
Home win
4.43
23%
Draw
2.98
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.51
34%
BTTS No
2.95
Clean Sheet
21%
4.78
16%
6.11
Win to Nil
9%
10.90
5%
18.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 5.4 | 4.2 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 9.7 | 7.6 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.8 | 6.9 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 5.3 | 4.1 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Nassr vs Al Shabab?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are Al-Nassr and Al Shabab expected to score?
The model projects 1.81 expected goals for Al-Nassr and 1.56 for Al Shabab, a combined total of 3.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Nassr vs Al Shabab?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al-Nassr's recent record stands at 15W 3D 7L from 25 games, a 1.92 PPG return, with W-W-L-D-W in the last five. The sample for Al-Nassr is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Shabab, meanwhile, have gone 13W 8D 4L across 25 games — 1.88 PPG, with L-W-W-L-D in their last five. The sample for Al Shabab is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al-Nassr on 1.92 PPG, Al Shabab on 1.88. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Al-Nassr have managed 8W 1D 3L from 12 games — 2.08 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al Shabab's away record stands at 5W 4D 3L across 12 trips, a 1.58 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Nassr come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al-Nassr are averaging 1.76 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Al Shabab are on 1.84 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Last 25 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Nassr
Blended
Al Shabab
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Nassr and Al Shabab in coming into this match?
Al-Nassr have gone 15W 3D 7L in their last 25 games (1.92 PPG), while Al Shabab have gone 13W 8D 4L in their last 25 (1.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Nassr at home or Al Shabab away?
Al-Nassr's home record (2.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Nassr at home: 2.08 PPG; Al Shabab away: 1.58 PPG.
Have Al-Nassr or Al Shabab been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Nassr have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Al Shabab in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Nassr and Al Shabab runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 7 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Al-Nassr have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Aug 2023, when Al-Nassr won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Nassr's record when hosting Al Shabab specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Al-Nassr
2
Draws
1
Al Shabab
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Nassr and Al Shabab?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Nassr have won 7, Al Shabab have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Nassr and Al Shabab last play each other?
They last met on 7 May 2026, when Al Shabab 2-4 Al-Nassr.
Who has won more matches between Al-Nassr and Al Shabab?
Al-Nassr have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Nassr are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Al Shabab are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Nassr 58%, Al Shabab 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Al-Nassr and 67% for Al Shabab. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 58% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Nassr home games / Al Shabab away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Nassr play Al Shabab?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Al-Nassr's games and 58% of Al Shabab's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Nassr vs Al Shabab usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Al-Nassr's matches and 67% of Al Shabab's.
Do Al-Nassr and Al Shabab tend to score early?
Al-Nassr have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Al Shabab in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Nassr cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Al Shabab.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Nassr beat Al Shabab 4-2 at Mrsool Park, Regular Season - 26, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Nassr 1.81 xG and Al Shabab 1.56 xG, a combined 3.37. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Al-Nassr beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Nassr attack 1.12 / defence 1.26 against Al Shabab attack 1.07 / defence 1.37, drawn from 25/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Nassr 44% | Draw 23% | Al Shabab 34%, with Al-Nassr to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Nassr 64%, Al Shabab 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Nassr's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Al Shabab's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Nassr 1.92 PPG, Al Shabab 1.88 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Nassr win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Nassr (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm. Al Shabab (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.58 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.