Al-Nassr 2-2 Al-Hilal Saudi FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Nassr at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Nassr vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al-Nassr host Al-Hilal Saudi FC at Mrsool Park in Pro League, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 26 December 2022 at 16:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Al-Nassr — All Games: 8W 1D 1L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 2.50 points per game. Last five: D W W W W. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Al-Nassr, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Nassr at Mrsool Park this season: 7W 2D 1L from 10 home games — 2.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have recorded 7W 2D 1L from 10 outings — 2.30 PPG. Last five: L D D W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's away record: 8W 1D 1L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Al-Nassr 2.50 PPG, Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Al-Nassr, 1 for Al-Hilal Saudi FC and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 3 Mar 2022, ended 0–4 with Al-Hilal Saudi FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Al-Nassr in-play and half-time data (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; they lead at the break 51% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC in-play and half-time data (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Nassr 54% versus Al-Hilal Saudi FC 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Nassr 67% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Nassr 1.37 xG and Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Nassr attack 1.255 / defence 0.847 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.181 / defence 0.815. League average goals — home 1.344 / away 1.115. Al-Nassr carry an above-average attack strength of 1.255 — their λ of 1.37 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 39 Al-Nassr games / 39 Al-Hilal Saudi FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Nassr 43% | Draw 27% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 30%. Fair-value odds: Al-Nassr 2.33 | Draw 3.70 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Nassr at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Nassr offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.49 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. This conflicts with form data: Al-Nassr 50% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Nassr vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Mrsool Park • Kick-off: Monday 26 Dec 2022, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Nassr 43% | Draw 27% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG Al-Nassr 1.37 / Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Nassr attack 1.255 / def 0.847 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.181 / def 0.815 | league avg home 1.344 / away 1.115 • Poisson stance: Al-Nassr (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Al-Nassr xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Nassr vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC kick off?
Al-Nassr vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC kicked off at 16:30 on Monday 26 December 2022 at Mrsool Park.
What was the final score in Al-Nassr vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Al-Nassr 2 - 2 Al-Hilal Saudi FC.
Where is Al-Nassr vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC being played?
The match is being played at Mrsool Park.
What competition is Al-Nassr vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC part of?
Al-Nassr vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Nassr vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our statistical model gives Al-Nassr a 43% chance of winning, Al-Hilal Saudi FC a 30% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Al-Nassr the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Nassr vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Al-Nassr and Al-Hilal Saudi FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Nassr vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Nassr and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Record (2 meetings): Al-Nassr 1W | Draws 0 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1W.
What form are Al-Nassr and Al-Hilal Saudi FC in?
Al-Nassr (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 0.50 | L5 D-W-W-W-W. Al-Hilal Saudi FC (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Al-Nassr's attacking strength (1.25x league average) is weighed against Al-Hilal Saudi FC's defensive record (0.81x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.37. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Hilal Saudi FC's attack versus Al-Nassr's defence, projects 1.12 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.9%), 1-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Nassr Win
43%
2.34
27%
3.73
30%
3.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Al-Nassr xG
Total xG
2.49
1.12
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
2.34
43%
Home win
3.73
27%
Draw
3.28
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
33%
3.05
25%
3.95
Win to Nil
14%
7.14
8%
12.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 9.3 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 12.7 | 7.1 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 8.7 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.0 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Nassr vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Al-Nassr and Al-Hilal Saudi FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Al-Nassr and 1.12 for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Nassr vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 39 outings, Al-Nassr have picked up 2.13 PPG on a 26W 5D 8L record — D-W-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Al-Nassr is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's form line: 26W 9D 4L from 39 games, 2.23 PPG, last five L-D-D-W-W. The sample for Al-Hilal Saudi FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al-Nassr on 2.13 PPG, Al-Hilal Saudi FC on 2.23. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Al-Nassr have posted 2.21 PPG from 19 outings (13W 3D 3L).
On the road, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 12W 6D 1L from 19 away games — 2.21 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Al-Nassr are averaging 2.05 goals scored and 1.03 conceded per game recently; Al-Hilal Saudi FC are on 2.03 scored and 0.87 conceded. Al-Nassr's scoring rate against Al-Hilal Saudi FC's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 39 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Nassr
Blended
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Nassr and Al-Hilal Saudi FC in coming into this match?
Al-Nassr have gone 26W 5D 8L in their last 39 games (2.13 PPG), while Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 26W 9D 4L in their last 39 (2.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Nassr at home or Al-Hilal Saudi FC away?
Al-Nassr's home record (2.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Nassr at home: 2.21 PPG; Al-Hilal Saudi FC away: 2.21 PPG.
Have Al-Nassr or Al-Hilal Saudi FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Nassr have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Nassr and Al-Hilal Saudi FC runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 12 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Mar 2022, when Al-Hilal Saudi FC won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Nassr's record when hosting Al-Hilal Saudi FC specifically: 0W 4D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Al-Nassr
4
Draws
4
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Nassr and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Nassr have won 2, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Al-Nassr and Al-Hilal Saudi FC last play each other?
They last met on 12 May 2026, when Al-Nassr 1-1 Al-Hilal Saudi FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Nassr and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Nassr are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Nassr 58%, Al-Hilal Saudi FC 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 68% (Al-Nassr) and 47% (Al-Hilal Saudi FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Nassr keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Nassr home games / Al-Hilal Saudi FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Nassr play Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Al-Nassr's games and 53% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Nassr vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Al-Nassr's matches and 47% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's.
Do Al-Nassr and Al-Hilal Saudi FC tend to score early?
Al-Nassr have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Nassr and Al-Hilal Saudi FC share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Mrsool Park, Regular Season - 10, as Al-Nassr and Al-Hilal Saudi FC drew 2-2 in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Nassr 1.37 xG and Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.12 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Al-Hilal Saudi FC outscored their 1.12 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Nassr attack 1.25 / defence 0.85 against Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.18 / defence 0.81, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Nassr 43% | Draw 27% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 30%, with Al-Nassr to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Nassr 67%, Al-Hilal Saudi FC 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Nassr's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Nassr 2.13 PPG, Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Al-Nassr (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.05 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Hilal Saudi FC (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.79 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.