Al-Nassr 4-0 Al-Faisaly FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Nassr at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Nassr vs Al-Faisaly FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al-Nassr host Al-Faisaly FC at Mrsool Park in Pro League, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 15 January 2022 at 14:05 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Nassr stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W W W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Nassr, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Nassr's form when playing at home: 4W 1D 2L across 7 games at Mrsool Park this term (1.86 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.86 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 71% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Faisaly FC have recorded 1W 6D 3L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Faisaly FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Faisaly FC have posted 0W 3D 3L from 6 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game.
Al-Nassr are in the better shape of the two on current Pro League data — 0.80 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 0.90). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Al-Nassr have won 0, Al-Faisaly FC 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 19 Aug 2021, ended 1–2 with Al-Faisaly FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Al-Nassr in-play tendencies (15 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
Al-Faisaly FC in-play tendencies (15 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Nassr 60% and Al-Faisaly FC 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Nassr 53% | Al-Faisaly FC 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Nassr 1.49 xG and Al-Faisaly FC 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Nassr attack 1.053 / defence 1.199 | Al-Faisaly FC attack 0.625 / defence 1.302. League average goals — home 1.086 / away 1.186. Al-Faisaly FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.302 — this is suppressing Al-Nassr's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 16 Al-Nassr games / 15 Al-Faisaly FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Nassr 50% | Draw 28% | Al-Faisaly FC 22%. Fair-value odds: Al-Nassr 2.00 | Draw 3.57 | Al-Faisaly FC 4.55. Al-Nassr hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Nassr at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Nassr offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.38 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. This conflicts with form data: Al-Nassr 71% | Al-Faisaly FC 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Nassr vs Al-Faisaly FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Mrsool Park • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Jan 2022, 14:05 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Nassr 50% | Draw 28% | Al-Faisaly FC 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 46% | xG Al-Nassr 1.49 / Al-Faisaly FC 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Nassr attack 1.053 / def 1.199 | Al-Faisaly FC attack 0.625 / def 1.302 | league avg home 1.086 / away 1.186 • Poisson stance: Al-Nassr (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Al-Nassr xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Al-Faisaly FC xG
46%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Nassr vs Al-Faisaly FC kick off?
Al-Nassr vs Al-Faisaly FC kicked off at 14:05 on Saturday 15 January 2022 at Mrsool Park.
What was the final score in Al-Nassr vs Al-Faisaly FC?
Al-Nassr 4 - 0 Al-Faisaly FC.
Where is Al-Nassr vs Al-Faisaly FC being played?
The match is being played at Mrsool Park.
What competition is Al-Nassr vs Al-Faisaly FC part of?
Al-Nassr vs Al-Faisaly FC is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Nassr vs Al-Faisaly FC?
Our statistical model gives Al-Nassr a 50% chance of winning, Al-Faisaly FC a 22% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Al-Nassr the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Nassr vs Al-Faisaly FC?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Al-Nassr and Al-Faisaly FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Nassr vs Al-Faisaly FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Nassr and Al-Faisaly FC?
Record (1 meetings): Al-Nassr 0W | Draws 0 | Al-Faisaly FC 1W.
What form are Al-Nassr and Al-Faisaly FC in?
Al-Nassr (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-W-W-W. Al-Faisaly FC (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Al-Nassr's attacking strength (1.05x league average) is weighed against Al-Faisaly FC's defensive record (1.30x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.49. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Faisaly FC's attack versus Al-Nassr's defence, projects 0.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 16/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.2%), 0-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Nassr Win
50%
1.98
28%
3.60
22%
4.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
2 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Al-Nassr xG
Total xG
2.38
0.89
Al-Faisaly FC xG
1.98
50%
Home win
3.60
28%
Draw
4.59
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
41%
2.43
23%
4.43
Win to Nil
21%
4.82
5%
20.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 8.3 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.8 | 12.3 | 5.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 9.1 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 5.1 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Nassr vs Al-Faisaly FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Al-Nassr and Al-Faisaly FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Al-Nassr and 0.89 for Al-Faisaly FC, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Nassr vs Al-Faisaly FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al-Nassr come into this having played 15 games, going 8W 2D 5L for 1.73 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-W-W. The sample for Al-Nassr is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al-Faisaly FC sit at 1.07 PPG from 15 outings (3W 7D 5L), a run that reads D-L-L-L-D across their last five. The sample for Al-Faisaly FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Nassr carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.66 PPG clear of Al-Faisaly FC — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Al-Nassr's home form reads 3W 1D 2L across 6 games on their own ground, a 1.67 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Faisaly FC have taken 0.50 points per game from 6 outings (0W 3D 3L). That's a step down from their 1.07 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Al-Faisaly FC's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Nassr come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Nassr are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Al-Faisaly FC are on 1.13 scored and 1.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Nassr have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Al-Faisaly FC in 67%.
Last 15 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Nassr
Blended
Al-Faisaly FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Nassr and Al-Faisaly FC in coming into this match?
Al-Nassr have gone 8W 2D 5L in their last 15 games (1.73 PPG), while Al-Faisaly FC have gone 3W 7D 5L in their last 15 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Nassr at home or Al-Faisaly FC away?
Al-Nassr's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Nassr at home: 1.67 PPG; Al-Faisaly FC away: 0.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 January 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Al-Nassr
0
Draws
1
Al-Faisaly FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Nassr and Al-Faisaly FC?
From 2 meetings on record, Al-Nassr have won 1, Al-Faisaly FC have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al-Nassr and Al-Faisaly FC last play each other?
They last met on 15 January 2022, when Al-Nassr 4-0 Al-Faisaly FC.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Nassr are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Al-Faisaly FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Nassr 67%, Al-Faisaly FC 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Al-Nassr) and 17% (Al-Faisaly FC).
On the defensive side: Al-Faisaly FC in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Nassr home games / Al-Faisaly FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Nassr play Al-Faisaly FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Al-Nassr's games and 50% of Al-Faisaly FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Nassr vs Al-Faisaly FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Al-Nassr's recent games and 17% of Al-Faisaly FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Nassr and Al-Faisaly FC tend to score early?
Al-Nassr have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Al-Faisaly FC in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al-Nassr run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Al-Faisaly FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Nassr beat Al-Faisaly FC 4-0 at Mrsool Park, Regular Season - 17, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Nassr 1.49 xG and Al-Faisaly FC 0.89 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Al-Nassr beat their projection by 2.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Al-Faisaly FC landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Nassr attack 1.05 / defence 1.20 against Al-Faisaly FC attack 0.62 / defence 1.30, drawn from 16/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Nassr 50% | Draw 28% | Al-Faisaly FC 22%, with Al-Nassr to win its most likely call at 50%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Nassr 53%, Al-Faisaly FC 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Nassr's trading profile (15 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Al-Faisaly FC's trading profile (15 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Nassr arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 1.07. Form held, and they took the win. Al-Nassr (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. Al-Faisaly FC (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.