Al-Nassr 3-1 Al Baten – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Al-Nassr (71%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al-Nassr face Al Baten.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al-Nassr host Al Baten at Mrsool Park in Pro League, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 3 March 2023 at 17:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Nassr have gone 7W 3D 0L from 10 outings — a 2.40 PPG return. Last five: W D W W W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Al-Nassr, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Nassr's home record at Mrsool Park: 8W 2D 0L from 10 Pro League appearances (2.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Mrsool Park.
Al Baten — All Games: 1W 2D 7L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 0.50 PPG. Last five: D L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al Baten, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Baten's away record: 0W 3D 7L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Al-Nassr carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.90 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.40 vs 0.50. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Al-Nassr: 3 wins from 3 previous clashes against 0 for Al Baten, with 0 draws across those contests.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 15 Sep 2022, ended 4–0 with Al-Nassr winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Al-Nassr and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 3 meetings, combined with an average of 4.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Patterns
Al-Nassr in-play and half-time data (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Al Baten in-play and half-time data (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 48% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Nassr 50% versus Al Baten 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Nassr 65% | Al Baten 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Nassr 2.17 xG and Al Baten 0.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Nassr attack 1.178 / defence 0.784 | Al Baten attack 0.740 / defence 1.270. League average goals — home 1.451 / away 1.208. Al Baten bring a strong defensive rating of 1.270 — this is suppressing Al-Nassr's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Al-Nassr's defence rating of 0.784 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 48 Al-Nassr games / 48 Al Baten games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Nassr 71% | Draw 19% | Al Baten 10%. Fair-value odds: Al-Nassr 1.41 | Draw 5.26 | Al Baten 10.00. The model has a clear lean to Al-Nassr (71%) — a 61pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Nassr as the most likely outcome at 71% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.87 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al-Nassr 50% | Al Baten 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Nassr vs Al Baten | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Mrsool Park • Kick-off: Friday 3 Mar 2023, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Nassr 71% | Draw 19% | Al Baten 10% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 45% | xG Al-Nassr 2.17 / Al Baten 0.70 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Nassr attack 1.178 / def 0.784 | Al Baten attack 0.740 / def 1.270 | league avg home 1.451 / away 1.208 • Poisson stance: Al-Nassr (71%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.17
Al-Nassr xG
Expected Goals
0.70
Al Baten xG
45%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Nassr vs Al Baten kick off?
Al-Nassr vs Al Baten kicked off at 17:30 on Friday 3 March 2023 at Mrsool Park.
What was the final score in Al-Nassr vs Al Baten?
Al-Nassr 3 - 1 Al Baten.
Where is Al-Nassr vs Al Baten being played?
The match is being played at Mrsool Park.
What competition is Al-Nassr vs Al Baten part of?
Al-Nassr vs Al Baten is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Nassr vs Al Baten?
Our statistical model gives Al-Nassr a 71% chance of winning, Al Baten a 10% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Al-Nassr the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Nassr vs Al Baten?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Al-Nassr and Al Baten will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Nassr vs Al Baten have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Nassr and Al Baten?
Record (3 meetings): Al-Nassr 3W | Draws 0 | Al Baten 0W.
What form are Al-Nassr and Al Baten in?
Al-Nassr (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-D-W-W-W. Al Baten (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Al-Nassr's attack at 1.18x the league average against Al Baten's defence at 1.27x — combine the two and it projects 2.17 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al Baten's attack versus Al-Nassr's defence, projects 0.70 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.2%), 1-1 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Nassr Win
71%
1.41
19%
5.38
10%
9.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
13.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
3 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.17
Al-Nassr xG
Total xG
2.87
0.70
Al Baten xG
1.41
71%
Home win
5.38
19%
Draw
9.58
10%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.23
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
50%
2.02
11%
8.78
Win to Nil
35%
2.84
1%
84.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.3 | 8.6 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.3 | 9.3 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 9.7 | 6.8 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 5.2 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Nassr vs Al Baten?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Al-Nassr and Al Baten expected to score?
The model projects 2.17 expected goals for Al-Nassr and 0.70 for Al Baten, a combined total of 2.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Nassr vs Al Baten?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 71%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 48 outings, Al-Nassr have picked up 2.17 PPG on a 32W 8D 8L record — W-D-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Al-Nassr is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Baten's form line: 9W 12D 27L from 48 games, 0.81 PPG, last five D-L-L-L-W. The sample for Al Baten is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Al-Nassr are the form team by 1.36 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al Baten.
Venue Form
On home soil, Al-Nassr have posted 2.29 PPG from 24 outings (17W 4D 3L).
On the road, Al Baten have gone 2W 6D 16L from 24 away games — 0.50 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Nassr come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Nassr are averaging 2.02 goals scored and 0.94 conceded per game recently; Al Baten are on 0.90 scored and 1.77 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Nassr have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 48 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Nassr
Blended
Al Baten
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Nassr and Al Baten in coming into this match?
Al-Nassr have gone 32W 8D 8L in their last 48 games (2.17 PPG), while Al Baten have gone 9W 12D 27L in their last 48 (0.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Nassr at home or Al Baten away?
Al-Nassr's home record (2.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Nassr at home: 2.29 PPG; Al Baten away: 0.50 PPG.
Have Al-Nassr or Al Baten been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Nassr have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Al Baten in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Al-Nassr go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 Sep 2022, when Al-Nassr won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Nassr's record when hosting Al Baten specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
4
Al-Nassr
0
Draws
0
Al Baten
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Nassr and Al Baten?
From 4 meetings on record, Al-Nassr have won 4, Al Baten have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al-Nassr and Al Baten last play each other?
They last met on 3 March 2023, when Al-Nassr 3-1 Al Baten.
Who has won more matches between Al-Nassr and Al Baten?
Al-Nassr have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Nassr are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time.
Al Baten see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Nassr 58%, Al Baten 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Al-Nassr) and 46% (Al Baten). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Nassr keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Al Baten in 62%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Nassr home games / Al Baten away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Nassr play Al Baten?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Al-Nassr's recent matches and 38% of Al Baten's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Nassr vs Al Baten usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Al-Nassr's matches and 46% of Al Baten's.
Do Al-Nassr and Al Baten tend to score early?
Al-Nassr have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Al Baten in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Nassr cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Al Baten.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Nassr beat Al Baten 3-1 at Mrsool Park, Regular Season - 19, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Nassr 2.17 xG and Al Baten 0.70 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Al-Nassr beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Nassr attack 1.18 / defence 0.78 against Al Baten attack 0.74 / defence 1.27, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Nassr 71% | Draw 19% | Al Baten 10%, with Al-Nassr to win its most likely call at 71%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Nassr 65%, Al Baten 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Nassr's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Al Baten's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Nassr arrived the stronger side — 2.17 PPG against 0.81. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Al-Nassr (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.04 average — above their attacking norm. Al Baten (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.79 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.