Al Kholood vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al-Hilal Saudi FC (76%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al Kholood face Al-Hilal Saudi FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al Kholood host Al-Hilal Saudi FC at Al-Hazem Club Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off is scheduled for Thursday 26 November 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Al Kholood — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: D W L L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al Kholood, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al Kholood have posted 3W 4D 3L at Al-Hazem Club Stadium — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Hilal Saudi FC stand at 9W 0D 1L from 10 Pro League matches — 2.70 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.90 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's away record: 9W 1D 0L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (2.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Al-Hilal Saudi FC — 1.40 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.70 vs 1.30). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 4 of the last 4 encounters against Al Kholood's 0 victories.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 5.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 8 Apr 2026, ended 0–6 with Al-Hilal Saudi FC winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won 4 of 4 previous encounters, and at 5.5 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Profile
Al Kholood in-play tendencies (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 40% of games.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC in-play tendencies (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Kholood 55% versus Al-Hilal Saudi FC 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Kholood 64% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Kholood 1.01 xG and Al-Hilal Saudi FC 3.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Kholood attack 1.074 / defence 1.261 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.744 / defence 0.674. League average goals — home 1.399 / away 1.388. Al-Hilal Saudi FC's defence strength of 0.674 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Al-Hilal Saudi FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.744 — the away xG of 3.05 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 43 Al Kholood games / 42 Al-Hilal Saudi FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Kholood 8% | Draw 16% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 76%. Fair-value odds: Al Kholood 12.50 | Draw 6.25 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.32. The model has a clear lean to Al-Hilal Saudi FC (76%) — a 68pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 77% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 4.07. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 77% — a total xG of 4.07 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.01 / 3.05) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Hilal Saudi FC are the pick at 76% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 4.07 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 77% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 5.5 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates are neutral: Al Kholood 60% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Kholood vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Al-Hazem Club Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 26 Nov 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Kholood 8% | Draw 16% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 76% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 77% | BTTS 62% | xG Al Kholood 1.01 / Al-Hilal Saudi FC 3.05 • Poisson strength factors: Al Kholood attack 1.074 / def 1.261 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.744 / def 0.674 | league avg home 1.399 / away 1.388 • Poisson stance: Al-Hilal Saudi FC (76%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Al Kholood xG
Expected Goals
3.05
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
62%
BTTS
93%
Over 1.5
77%
Over 2.5
58%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Kholood vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC kick off?
Al Kholood vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC is scheduled to kick off at 17:00 on Thursday 26 November 2026 at Al-Hazem Club Stadium.
Where is Al Kholood vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC being played?
The match is being played at Al-Hazem Club Stadium.
What competition is Al Kholood vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC part of?
Al Kholood vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Kholood vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our statistical model gives Al Kholood a 8% chance of winning, Al-Hilal Saudi FC a 76% chance, and a 16% chance of a draw — making Al-Hilal Saudi FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Kholood vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Al Kholood and Al-Hilal Saudi FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al Kholood vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 77%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Kholood and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Record (4 meetings): Al Kholood 0W | Draws 0 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 4W.
What form are Al Kholood and Al-Hilal Saudi FC in?
Al Kholood (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-W-L-L-L. Al-Hilal Saudi FC (all comps): 9W-0D-1L in 10 | 2.70 PPG | GF 2.90 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Al Kholood's attack at 1.07x the league average against Al-Hilal Saudi FC's defence at 0.67x — combine the two and it projects 1.01 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Hilal Saudi FC's attack versus Al Kholood's defence, projects 3.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-3 carries the highest individual probability at 8.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-3 (8.1%), 1-2 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Hilal Saudi FC Win
8%
13.11
16%
6.24
76%
1.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 3
8.2%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 3
8.1%
Away win
1 – 2
8.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Al Kholood xG
Total xG
4.07
3.05
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
13.11
8%
Home win
6.24
16%
Draw
1.31
76%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
77%
Over 2.5
1.30
23%
Under 2.5
4.35
58%
Over 3.5
1.72
42%
Under 3.5
2.38
38%
Over 4.5
2.63
62%
Under 4.5
1.61
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.65
Clean Sheet
5%
21.18
36%
2.75
Win to Nil
0%
–
28%
3.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.7 | 5.2 | 8.0 | 8.1 | 6.2 | 3.8 |
| 1 | 1.7 | 5.3 | 8.1 | 8.2 | 6.3 | 3.8 |
| 2 | 0.9 | 2.7 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 3.2 | 1.9 |
| 3 | 0.3 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.7 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| 5 | – | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Kholood vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-3 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.2%.
How many goals are Al Kholood and Al-Hilal Saudi FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Al Kholood and 3.05 for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, a combined total of 4.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Kholood vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 76%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al Kholood come into this having played 42 games, going 12W 9D 21L for 1.07 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-L-L. The sample for Al Kholood is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al-Hilal Saudi FC sit at 2.50 PPG from 42 outings (32W 9D 1L), a run that reads W-W-L-W-W across their last five. The sample for Al-Hilal Saudi FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.43 PPG clear of Al Kholood — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Al Kholood's home form reads 6W 4D 11L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.05 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have taken 2.52 points per game from 21 outings (16W 5D 0L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Hilal Saudi FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al Kholood are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game recently; Al-Hilal Saudi FC are on 2.64 scored and 0.81 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 48% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 42 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Kholood
Blended
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Kholood and Al-Hilal Saudi FC in coming into this match?
Al Kholood have gone 12W 9D 21L in their last 42 games (1.07 PPG), while Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 32W 9D 1L in their last 42 (2.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Kholood at home or Al-Hilal Saudi FC away?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's away record (2.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Kholood at home: 1.05 PPG; Al-Hilal Saudi FC away: 2.52 PPG.
Have Al Kholood or Al-Hilal Saudi FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Kholood have kept a clean sheet in 14% of their recent games, Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 48%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 8 April 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Al-Hilal Saudi FC go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Apr 2026, when Al-Hilal Saudi FC won 6-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al Kholood's record when hosting Al-Hilal Saudi FC specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Al Kholood
0
Draws
4
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Kholood and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
From 4 meetings on record, Al Kholood have won 0, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al Kholood and Al-Hilal Saudi FC last play each other?
They last met on 8 April 2026, when Al-Hilal Saudi FC 6-0 Al Kholood.
Who has won more matches between Al Kholood and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al Kholood are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Kholood 57%, Al-Hilal Saudi FC 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Al Kholood and 62% for Al-Hilal Saudi FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 48%; Al Kholood have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Kholood home games / Al-Hilal Saudi FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Kholood play Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Al Kholood's recent matches and 52% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Kholood vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Al Kholood's matches and 62% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's.
Do Al Kholood and Al-Hilal Saudi FC tend to score early?
Al Kholood have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.