Al Kholood vs Al-Fateh – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al Kholood (40%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al Kholood face Al-Fateh.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Al-Fateh make the trip to Al-Hazem Club Stadium to face Al Kholood in Pro League, Regular Season - 33. The match kicks off on Monday 24 May 2027 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Al Kholood's overall Pro League record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: D W L L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al Kholood, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al Kholood have posted 3W 4D 3L at Al-Hazem Club Stadium — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Al-Fateh have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fateh, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Fateh away from home this season: 1W 4D 5L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Al Kholood. A 0.70 PPG lead over Al-Fateh (1.30 vs 0.60) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Al Kholood 2W, Al-Fateh 0W, 2D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 4 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 21 May 2026, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Al Kholood — key trading statistics (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 40% of games.
Al-Fateh — key trading statistics (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Kholood 56% versus Al-Fateh 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Kholood 65% | Al-Fateh 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Kholood 1.83 xG and Al-Fateh 1.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Kholood attack 1.067 / defence 1.230 | Al-Fateh attack 0.948 / defence 1.205. League average goals — home 1.423 / away 1.432. Al-Fateh bring a strong defensive rating of 1.205 — this is suppressing Al Kholood's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 43 Al Kholood games / 45 Al-Fateh games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Kholood 40% | Draw 26% | Al-Fateh 34%. Fair-value odds: Al Kholood 2.50 | Draw 3.85 | Al-Fateh 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 70% | Total xG 3.50. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.50 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% reflects that both xG figures (1.83 / 1.67) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Al Kholood as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al Kholood if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.50 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 68% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 70% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al Kholood 60% | Al-Fateh 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Kholood vs Al-Fateh | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Al-Hazem Club Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 24 May 2027, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Kholood 40% | Draw 26% | Al-Fateh 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 70% | xG Al Kholood 1.83 / Al-Fateh 1.67 • Poisson strength factors: Al Kholood attack 1.067 / def 1.230 | Al-Fateh attack 0.948 / def 1.205 | league avg home 1.423 / away 1.432 • Poisson stance: Al Kholood (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.83
Al Kholood xG
Expected Goals
1.67
Al-Fateh xG
70%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Kholood vs Al-Fateh kick off?
Al Kholood vs Al-Fateh is scheduled to kick off at 18:00 on Monday 24 May 2027 at Al-Hazem Club Stadium.
Where is Al Kholood vs Al-Fateh being played?
The match is being played at Al-Hazem Club Stadium.
What competition is Al Kholood vs Al-Fateh part of?
Al Kholood vs Al-Fateh is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Kholood vs Al-Fateh?
Our statistical model gives Al Kholood a 40% chance of winning, Al-Fateh a 34% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Al Kholood the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Kholood vs Al-Fateh?
Our model estimates a 70% probability that both Al Kholood and Al-Fateh will score (BTTS).
Will Al Kholood vs Al-Fateh have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Kholood and Al-Fateh?
Record (4 meetings): Al Kholood 2W | Draws 2 | Al-Fateh 0W.
What form are Al Kholood and Al-Fateh in?
Al Kholood (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-W-L-L-L. Al-Fateh (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Al Kholood's attacking strength (1.07x league average) is weighed against Al-Fateh's defensive record (1.21x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.83. Flip it around — Al-Fateh's attack (0.95x) against Al Kholood's defence (1.23x) — and the away total comes out at 1.67.
These ratings are built from 43/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.4%), 1-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Kholood Win
40%
2.49
26%
3.83
34%
2.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.4%
Home win
1 – 2
7.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.83
Al Kholood xG
Total xG
3.50
1.67
Al-Fateh xG
2.49
40%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
2.97
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
70%
BTTS Yes
1.43
30%
BTTS No
3.34
Clean Sheet
19%
5.32
16%
6.23
Win to Nil
8%
13.23
5%
18.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 5.0 | 4.2 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 5.5 | 9.2 | 7.7 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 8.4 | 7.1 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 5.1 | 4.3 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Kholood vs Al-Fateh?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.4%.
How many goals are Al Kholood and Al-Fateh expected to score?
The model projects 1.83 expected goals for Al Kholood and 1.67 for Al-Fateh, a combined total of 3.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Kholood vs Al-Fateh?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al Kholood come into this having played 43 games, going 12W 9D 22L for 1.05 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-L-L. The sample for Al Kholood is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al-Fateh sit at 1.00 PPG from 43 outings (10W 13D 20L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for Al-Fateh is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.05 PPG for Al Kholood against 1.00 for Al-Fateh. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Al Kholood's home form reads 6W 4D 11L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.05 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Fateh have taken 0.81 points per game from 21 outings (3W 8D 10L).
Attack vs Defence
Al Kholood are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.84 conceded per game recently; Al-Fateh are on 1.12 scored and 1.67 conceded.
Last 43 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Kholood
Blended
Al-Fateh
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Kholood and Al-Fateh in coming into this match?
Al Kholood have gone 12W 9D 22L in their last 43 games (1.05 PPG), while Al-Fateh have gone 10W 13D 20L in their last 43 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Kholood at home or Al-Fateh away?
Al Kholood's home record (1.05 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Kholood at home: 1.05 PPG; Al-Fateh away: 0.81 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 21 May 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al Kholood won 2-5 on 20 Jan 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Kholood have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Al-Fateh — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Al Kholood
2
Draws
0
Al-Fateh
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Kholood and Al-Fateh?
From 4 meetings on record, Al Kholood have won 2, Al-Fateh have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al Kholood and Al-Fateh last play each other?
They last met on 21 May 2026, when Al Kholood 0-0 Al-Fateh.
Who has won more matches between Al Kholood and Al-Fateh?
Al Kholood have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al Kholood are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
Al-Fateh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Kholood 57%, Al-Fateh 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Al Kholood) and 38% (Al-Fateh).
On the defensive side: Al Kholood have failed to score in 38% of games; Al-Fateh in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Kholood home games / Al-Fateh away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Kholood play Al-Fateh?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Al Kholood's games and 57% of Al-Fateh's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Kholood vs Al-Fateh usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Al Kholood's recent games and 38% of Al-Fateh's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Kholood and Al-Fateh tend to score early?
Al Kholood have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Al-Fateh in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.