Al Khaleej Saihat 3-2 Al Wehda Club – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Khaleej Saihat at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al Wehda Club fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 13 as Al Khaleej Saihat welcome Al Wehda Club to Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium. Kick-off is set for Friday 13 January 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Khaleej Saihat stand at 2W 1D 7L from 10 Pro League matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Al Khaleej Saihat, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium, Al Khaleej Saihat have gone 1W 1D 4L this season (6 games, 0.67 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game.
Al Wehda Club — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L D D W. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Al Wehda Club, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Wehda Club's away record: 0W 1D 5L from 6 road trips in Pro League this season (0.17 PPG). Their away PPG of 0.17 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Al Wehda Club are 0.50 PPG ahead (1.20 vs 0.70), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
In-Play Data
Al Khaleej Saihat trading profile (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 54% of games.
Al Wehda Club trading profile (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 20% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (away games); they fail to score in 64% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Al Khaleej Saihat 27% | Al Wehda Club 18%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Al Khaleej Saihat 46% | Al Wehda Club 18%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Khaleej Saihat 0.88 xG and Al Wehda Club 0.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Khaleej Saihat attack 0.646 / defence 1.095 | Al Wehda Club attack 0.554 / defence 1.008. League average goals — home 1.352 / away 1.143. Al Khaleej Saihat's attack strength of 0.646 is below the league average — the 0.88 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 12 Al Khaleej Saihat games / 11 Al Wehda Club games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Khaleej Saihat 38% | Draw 35% | Al Wehda Club 27%. Fair-value odds: Al Khaleej Saihat 2.63 | Draw 2.86 | Al Wehda Club 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 21% | BTTS probability 29% | Total xG 1.57. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 79% probability — total xG of 1.57 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 71% — Al Wehda Club's lower xG of 0.69 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 29%.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al Khaleej Saihat at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Al Wehda Club (1.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Khaleej Saihat offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 1.57 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 21% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.5 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 29% on No. Form rates corroborate: Al Khaleej Saihat 33% | Al Wehda Club 0% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al Wehda Club | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 13 Jan 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Khaleej Saihat 38% | Draw 35% | Al Wehda Club 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 21% | BTTS 29% | xG Al Khaleej Saihat 0.88 / Al Wehda Club 0.69 • Poisson strength factors: Al Khaleej Saihat attack 0.646 / def 1.095 | Al Wehda Club attack 0.554 / def 1.008 | league avg home 1.352 / away 1.143 • Poisson stance: Al Khaleej Saihat (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.88
Al Khaleej Saihat xG
Expected Goals
0.69
Al Wehda Club xG
29%
BTTS
47%
Over 1.5
21%
Over 2.5
8%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al Wehda Club kick off?
Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al Wehda Club kicked off at 14:00 on Friday 13 January 2023 at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al Wehda Club?
Al Khaleej Saihat 3 - 2 Al Wehda Club.
Where is Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al Wehda Club being played?
The match is being played at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium.
What competition is Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al Wehda Club part of?
Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al Wehda Club is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al Wehda Club?
Our statistical model gives Al Khaleej Saihat a 38% chance of winning, Al Wehda Club a 27% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Al Khaleej Saihat the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al Wehda Club?
Our model estimates a 29% probability that both Al Khaleej Saihat and Al Wehda Club will score (BTTS).
Will Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al Wehda Club have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 21%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Khaleej Saihat and Al Wehda Club?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al Khaleej Saihat and Al Wehda Club in?
Al Khaleej Saihat (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-L-W. Al Wehda Club (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Al Khaleej Saihat's attack rating (0.65) and Al Wehda Club's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 0.88 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al Wehda Club's attack versus Al Khaleej Saihat's defence, projects 0.69 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 12/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 22.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (16.6%), 1-1 (14.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 53% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Khaleej Saihat Win
38%
2.66
35%
2.82
27%
3.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
20.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
18.3%
Home win
0 – 1
14.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.88
Al Khaleej Saihat xG
Total xG
1.57
0.69
Al Wehda Club xG
2.66
38%
Home win
2.82
35%
Draw
3.72
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
47%
Over 1.5
2.13
53%
Under 1.5
1.89
21%
Over 2.5
4.76
79%
Under 2.5
1.27
8%
Over 3.5
12.50
92%
Under 3.5
1.09
2%
Over 4.5
50.00
98%
Under 4.5
1.02
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
29%
BTTS Yes
3.41
71%
BTTS No
1.41
Clean Sheet
50%
2.00
41%
2.41
Win to Nil
19%
5.31
11%
8.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 20.7 | 14.4 | 5.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 18.3 | 12.7 | 4.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 8.0 | 5.6 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al Wehda Club?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 22.4%.
How many goals are Al Khaleej Saihat and Al Wehda Club expected to score?
The model projects 0.88 expected goals for Al Khaleej Saihat and 0.69 for Al Wehda Club, a combined total of 1.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al Wehda Club?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al Khaleej Saihat come into this having played 11 games, going 2W 1D 8L for 0.64 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-W. The sample for Al Khaleej Saihat is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al Wehda Club sit at 1.09 PPG from 11 outings (3W 3D 5L), a run that reads W-L-D-D-W across their last five. The sample for Al Wehda Club is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Wehda Club carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.45 PPG clear of Al Khaleej Saihat — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Al Khaleej Saihat's home form reads 1W 1D 3L across 5 games on their own ground, a 0.80 PPG return.
Away from home, Al Wehda Club have taken 0.20 points per game from 5 outings (0W 1D 4L). That's a step down from their 1.09 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Al Wehda Club's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Khaleej Saihat come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al Khaleej Saihat are averaging 0.45 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; Al Wehda Club are on 0.55 scored and 0.91 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Khaleej Saihat have seen both teams score in 27% of their recent games; Al Wehda Club in 18%.
Defensively: Al Wehda Club in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 11 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Khaleej Saihat
Blended
Al Wehda Club
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Khaleej Saihat and Al Wehda Club in coming into this match?
Al Khaleej Saihat have gone 2W 1D 8L in their last 11 games (0.64 PPG), while Al Wehda Club have gone 3W 3D 5L in their last 11 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Khaleej Saihat at home or Al Wehda Club away?
Al Khaleej Saihat's home record (0.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Khaleej Saihat at home: 0.80 PPG; Al Wehda Club away: 0.20 PPG.
Have Al Khaleej Saihat or Al Wehda Club been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Khaleej Saihat have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Al Wehda Club in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al Khaleej Saihat and Al Wehda Club runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to January 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 March 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 May 2023, when Al Khaleej Saihat won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al Khaleej Saihat's record when hosting Al Wehda Club specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Al Khaleej Saihat
0
Draws
3
Al Wehda Club
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Khaleej Saihat and Al Wehda Club?
From 6 meetings on record, Al Khaleej Saihat have won 3, Al Wehda Club have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al Khaleej Saihat and Al Wehda Club last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2025, when Al Khaleej Saihat 0-2 Al Wehda Club.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al Khaleej Saihat are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Al Wehda Club tend to start slowly — only 20% of their games have a goal by half-time.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Al Khaleej Saihat 40% BTTS, Al Wehda Club 0%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 40% for Al Khaleej Saihat and 20% for Al Wehda Club.
On the defensive side: Al Khaleej Saihat keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Al Khaleej Saihat have failed to score in 40% of games; Al Wehda Club in 100%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Khaleej Saihat home games / Al Wehda Club away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Khaleej Saihat play Al Wehda Club?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Al Khaleej Saihat's recent matches and 0% of Al Wehda Club's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al Wehda Club usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Al Khaleej Saihat's recent games and 20% of Al Wehda Club's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Khaleej Saihat and Al Wehda Club tend to score early?
Al Khaleej Saihat have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Al Wehda Club in 20% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al Khaleej Saihat edge out Al Wehda Club 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Khaleej Saihat beat Al Wehda Club 3-2 at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 13, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Khaleej Saihat 0.88 xG and Al Wehda Club 0.69 xG, a combined 1.57. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Al Khaleej Saihat beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Al Wehda Club outscored their 0.69 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Khaleej Saihat attack 0.65 / defence 1.09 against Al Wehda Club attack 0.55 / defence 1.01, drawn from 12/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Khaleej Saihat 38% | Draw 35% | Al Wehda Club 27%, with Al Khaleej Saihat to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 21%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 47% and landed. Over 3.5 was 8% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 29% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 32% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Khaleej Saihat 46%, Al Wehda Club 18%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 23%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Khaleej Saihat's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 27% of their matches — today it did.
Al Wehda Club's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 18% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Wehda Club arrived the stronger side — 1.09 PPG against 0.64. Form was overturned, with Al Khaleej Saihat winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Al Khaleej Saihat (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.60 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al Wehda Club (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.40 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.