Al Khaleej Saihat 3-0 Al-Raed – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Raed at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Raed fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al Khaleej Saihat host Al-Raed at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 20 January 2023 at 11:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Al Khaleej Saihat — All Games: 3W 0D 7L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: L L L W W. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Al Khaleej Saihat, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Khaleej Saihat's home record at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium: 2W 1D 4L from 7 Pro League appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.86 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Raed stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Raed, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Al-Raed have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Al Khaleej Saihat at 0.90 PPG versus Al-Raed's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Profile
Al Khaleej Saihat in-play tendencies (13 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 54% of games.
Al-Raed in-play tendencies (13 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Khaleej Saihat 31% versus Al-Raed 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Khaleej Saihat 46% | Al-Raed 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Khaleej Saihat 1.07 xG and Al-Raed 1.53 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Khaleej Saihat attack 0.829 / defence 1.219 | Al-Raed attack 1.089 / defence 0.934. League average goals — home 1.387 / away 1.156. Data: 13 Al Khaleej Saihat games / 44 Al-Raed games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Khaleej Saihat 26% | Draw 27% | Al-Raed 47%. Fair-value odds: Al Khaleej Saihat 3.85 | Draw 3.70 | Al-Raed 2.13. Al-Raed hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Raed are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Raed offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.61 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: Al Khaleej Saihat 43% | Al-Raed 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Raed | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 20 Jan 2023, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Khaleej Saihat 26% | Draw 27% | Al-Raed 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 52% | xG Al Khaleej Saihat 1.07 / Al-Raed 1.53 • Poisson strength factors: Al Khaleej Saihat attack 0.829 / def 1.219 | Al-Raed attack 1.089 / def 0.934 | league avg home 1.387 / away 1.156 • Poisson stance: Al-Raed (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Al Khaleej Saihat xG
Expected Goals
1.53
Al-Raed xG
52%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Raed kick off?
Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Raed kicked off at 11:30 on Friday 20 January 2023 at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Raed?
Al Khaleej Saihat 3 - 0 Al-Raed.
Where is Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Raed being played?
The match is being played at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium.
What competition is Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Raed part of?
Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Raed is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Raed?
Our statistical model gives Al Khaleej Saihat a 26% chance of winning, Al-Raed a 47% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Al-Raed the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Raed?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Raed will score (BTTS).
Will Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Raed have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Raed?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Raed in?
Al Khaleej Saihat (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-W-W. Al-Raed (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Al Khaleej Saihat's attack at 0.83x the league average against Al-Raed's defence at 0.93x — combine the two and it projects 1.07 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Raed's attack versus Al Khaleej Saihat's defence, projects 1.53 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 13/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (9.7%), 1-2 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Raed Win
26%
3.84
27%
3.76
47%
2.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.3%
Away win
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Al Khaleej Saihat xG
Total xG
2.61
1.53
Al-Raed xG
3.84
26%
Home win
3.76
27%
Draw
2.11
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
22%
4.64
34%
2.93
Win to Nil
6%
17.84
16%
6.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 11.3 | 8.7 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 12.1 | 9.3 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 6.5 | 5.0 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Raed?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Raed expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Al Khaleej Saihat and 1.53 for Al-Raed, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Raed?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 13 outings, Al Khaleej Saihat have picked up 0.77 PPG on a 3W 1D 9L record — L-L-L-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Al Khaleej Saihat is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Raed's form line: 5W 1D 7L from 13 games, 1.23 PPG, last five W-L-W-D-L. The sample for Al-Raed is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Al-Raed are the form team by 0.46 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al Khaleej Saihat.
Venue Form
On home soil, Al Khaleej Saihat have posted 1.20 PPG from 5 outings (2W 0D 3L). That's noticeably better than their 0.77 PPG overall — Al Khaleej Saihat are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Al-Raed have gone 3W 0D 2L from 5 away games — 1.80 PPG when travelling. That's actually stronger than their 1.23 PPG overall record — Al-Raed travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Raed come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al Khaleej Saihat are averaging 0.62 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Al-Raed are on 1.15 scored and 1.62 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Raed in 62%.
Last 13 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Khaleej Saihat
Blended
Al-Raed
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Raed in coming into this match?
Al Khaleej Saihat have gone 3W 1D 9L in their last 13 games (0.77 PPG), while Al-Raed have gone 5W 1D 7L in their last 13 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Khaleej Saihat at home or Al-Raed away?
Al-Raed's away record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Khaleej Saihat at home: 1.20 PPG; Al-Raed away: 1.80 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to January 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 April 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Al Khaleej Saihat go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Nov 2024, when Al Khaleej Saihat won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al Khaleej Saihat's record when hosting Al-Raed specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Al Khaleej Saihat
2
Draws
0
Al-Raed
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Raed?
From 6 meetings on record, Al Khaleej Saihat have won 4, Al-Raed have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Raed last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2025, when Al-Raed 1-2 Al Khaleej Saihat.
Who has won more matches between Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Raed?
Al Khaleej Saihat have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al Khaleej Saihat are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Al-Raed are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Khaleej Saihat 60%, Al-Raed 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Al Khaleej Saihat and 60% for Al-Raed. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 0% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Raed in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Khaleej Saihat home games / Al-Raed away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Khaleej Saihat play Al-Raed?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Al Khaleej Saihat's games and 60% of Al-Raed's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Raed usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Al Khaleej Saihat's matches and 60% of Al-Raed's.
Do Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Raed tend to score early?
Al Khaleej Saihat have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Al-Raed in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al Khaleej Saihat run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Al-Raed.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Khaleej Saihat beat Al-Raed 3-0 at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 14, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Khaleej Saihat 1.07 xG and Al-Raed 1.53 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Al Khaleej Saihat beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Al-Raed landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Khaleej Saihat attack 0.83 / defence 1.22 against Al-Raed attack 1.09 / defence 0.93, drawn from 13/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Khaleej Saihat 26% | Draw 27% | Al-Raed 47%, with Al-Raed to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual Al Khaleej Saihat win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Khaleej Saihat 46%, Al-Raed 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Khaleej Saihat's trading profile (13 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 31% of their matches — today it did not.
Al-Raed's trading profile (13 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Raed arrived the stronger side — 1.23 PPG against 0.77. Form was overturned, with Al Khaleej Saihat winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Al Khaleej Saihat (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line. Al-Raed (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.