Al Khaleej Saihat 1-2 Al-Fateh – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Fateh at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Fateh fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 7 as Al Khaleej Saihat welcome Al-Fateh to Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 11 October 2022 at 18:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Khaleej Saihat stand at 1W 1D 4L from 6 Pro League matches — 0.67 PPG. Last five: L D L W L. They are averaging 0.33 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 6 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 17% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. Al Khaleej Saihat have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium, Al Khaleej Saihat have gone 1W 1D 1L this season (3 games, 1.33 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.33 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 3 home games (67%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium. Their home PPG of 1.33 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.67 — Al Khaleej Saihat are significantly better at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Fateh have recorded 3W 0D 7L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Al-Fateh have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Fateh's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.67 PPG (Al Khaleej Saihat) versus 0.90 (Al-Fateh). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Data
Al Khaleej Saihat trading profile (6 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 17% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they fail to score in 67% of games.
Al-Fateh trading profile (6 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 17% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; they fail to score in 50% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Al Khaleej Saihat 17% | Al-Fateh 17%). The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Khaleej Saihat 33% | Al-Fateh 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Khaleej Saihat 0.82 xG and Al-Fateh 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Khaleej Saihat attack 0.658 / defence 1.024 | Al-Fateh attack 1.244 / defence 1.037. League average goals — home 1.197 / away 1.038. Al Khaleej Saihat's attack strength of 0.658 is below the league average — the 0.82 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Al-Fateh have an above-average attack strength of 1.244 — the away xG of 1.32 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 6 Al Khaleej Saihat games / 36 Al-Fateh games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Khaleej Saihat 22% | Draw 30% | Al-Fateh 48%. Fair-value odds: Al Khaleej Saihat 4.55 | Draw 3.33 | Al-Fateh 2.08. Al-Fateh hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.14. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.14 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Fateh as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Fateh offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.14 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 36% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.6 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. Form rates corroborate: Al Khaleej Saihat 0% | Al-Fateh 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Fateh | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 11 Oct 2022, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Khaleej Saihat 22% | Draw 30% | Al-Fateh 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 42% | xG Al Khaleej Saihat 0.82 / Al-Fateh 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Al Khaleej Saihat attack 0.658 / def 1.024 | Al-Fateh attack 1.244 / def 1.037 | league avg home 1.197 / away 1.038 • Poisson stance: Al-Fateh (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.82
Al Khaleej Saihat xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Al-Fateh xG
42%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Fateh kick off?
Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Fateh kicked off at 18:30 on Tuesday 11 October 2022 at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Fateh?
Al Khaleej Saihat 1 - 2 Al-Fateh.
Where is Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Fateh being played?
The match is being played at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium.
What competition is Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Fateh part of?
Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Fateh is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Fateh?
Our statistical model gives Al Khaleej Saihat a 22% chance of winning, Al-Fateh a 48% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Al-Fateh the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Fateh?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Fateh will score (BTTS).
Will Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Fateh have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Fateh?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Fateh in?
Al Khaleej Saihat (all comps): 1W-1D-4L in 6 | 0.67 PPG | GF 0.33 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-L-W-L. Al-Fateh (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Al Khaleej Saihat's attack rating (0.66) and Al-Fateh's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 0.82 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Fateh's attack versus Al Khaleej Saihat's defence, projects 1.32 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 6/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-1 (13.9%), 0-0 (13.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Fateh Win
22%
4.46
30%
3.36
48%
2.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
11.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.82
Al Khaleej Saihat xG
Total xG
2.14
1.32
Al-Fateh xG
4.46
22%
Home win
3.36
30%
Draw
2.09
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.40
58%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
27%
3.75
44%
2.26
Win to Nil
6%
16.75
21%
4.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.8 | 15.6 | 10.3 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.7 | 8.4 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 5.2 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Fateh?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Fateh expected to score?
The model projects 0.82 expected goals for Al Khaleej Saihat and 1.32 for Al-Fateh, a combined total of 2.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Fateh?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al Khaleej Saihat come into this having played 6 games, going 1W 1D 4L for 0.67 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-W-L. It's still early in the season for Al Khaleej Saihat, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Al-Fateh sit at 1.00 PPG from 6 outings (2W 0D 4L), a run that reads W-L-L-W-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Fateh, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al Khaleej Saihat on 0.67 PPG, Al-Fateh on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Al Khaleej Saihat's home form reads 1W 1D 1L across 3 games on their own ground, a 1.33 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.67 PPG overall — Al Khaleej Saihat are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Al-Fateh have taken 1.00 points per game from 3 outings (1W 0D 2L).
Goals in Recent Form
Al Khaleej Saihat are averaging 0.33 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Al-Fateh are on 1.50 scored and 1.17 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Khaleej Saihat have seen both teams score in 17% of their recent games; Al-Fateh in 17%.
Last 6 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Khaleej Saihat
Early Season
Al-Fateh
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Fateh in coming into this match?
Al Khaleej Saihat have gone 1W 1D 4L in their last 6 games (0.67 PPG), while Al-Fateh have gone 2W 0D 4L in their last 6 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Khaleej Saihat at home or Al-Fateh away?
Al Khaleej Saihat's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Khaleej Saihat at home: 1.33 PPG; Al-Fateh away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Al Khaleej Saihat or Al-Fateh been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Khaleej Saihat have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Al-Fateh in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 24 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Al-Fateh have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 Apr 2025, when Al-Fateh won 1-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al Khaleej Saihat's record when hosting Al-Fateh specifically: 0W 0D 4L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Al Khaleej Saihat
0
Draws
6
Al-Fateh
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Fateh?
From 8 meetings on record, Al Khaleej Saihat have won 2, Al-Fateh have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Fateh last play each other?
They last met on 24 April 2026, when Al-Fateh 1-0 Al Khaleej Saihat.
Who has won more matches between Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Fateh?
Al-Fateh have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al Khaleej Saihat see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Al-Fateh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Al Khaleej Saihat 0% BTTS, Al-Fateh 33%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 0% for Al Khaleej Saihat and 67% for Al-Fateh.
On the defensive side: Al Khaleej Saihat keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches; Al-Fateh in 33%; Al Khaleej Saihat have failed to score in 67% of games; Al-Fateh in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Khaleej Saihat home games / Al-Fateh away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Khaleej Saihat play Al-Fateh?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Al Khaleej Saihat's recent matches and 33% of Al-Fateh's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Fateh usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Al Khaleej Saihat's recent games and 67% of Al-Fateh's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Fateh tend to score early?
Al Khaleej Saihat have had a goal before half-time in 33% of their recent matches, Al-Fateh in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Fateh edge out Al Khaleej Saihat 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Fateh beat Al Khaleej Saihat 1-2 at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 7, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Khaleej Saihat 0.82 xG and Al-Fateh 1.32 xG, a combined 2.14. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Khaleej Saihat attack 0.66 / defence 1.02 against Al-Fateh attack 1.24 / defence 1.04, drawn from 6/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Khaleej Saihat 22% | Draw 30% | Al-Fateh 48%, with Al-Fateh to win its most likely call at 48%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Khaleej Saihat 33%, Al-Fateh 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 17%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Khaleej Saihat's trading profile (6 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 17% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Al-Fateh's trading profile (6 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 17% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al Khaleej Saihat 0.67 PPG, Al-Fateh 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Fateh win broke the near-deadlock. Al Khaleej Saihat (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.