Al Khaleej Saihat 1-4 Al-Ahli Jeddah – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al-Ahli Jeddah (56%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al Khaleej Saihat face Al-Ahli Jeddah.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al Khaleej Saihat host Al-Ahli Jeddah at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 34. Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday 20 May 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Al Khaleej Saihat have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: W W L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al Khaleej Saihat have posted 3W 1D 6L at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Ahli Jeddah stand at 7W 1D 2L from 10 Pro League matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: L W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Al-Ahli Jeddah away from home this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 away games — 2.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Al-Ahli Jeddah — 1.20 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.20 vs 1.00). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
The previous 5 encounters between these sides heavily favour Al-Ahli Jeddah, who boast 4 victories compared to 0 for Al Khaleej Saihat.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 3.4 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 20 Jan 2026, ended 1–4 with Al-Ahli Jeddah winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Al-Ahli Jeddah have won 4 of 5 previous encounters, and at 3.4 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
Al Khaleej Saihat in-play and half-time data (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Al-Ahli Jeddah in-play and half-time data (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 55% of those occasions; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Khaleej Saihat 61% versus Al-Ahli Jeddah 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Khaleej Saihat 64% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Khaleej Saihat 1.06 xG and Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Khaleej Saihat attack 0.915 / defence 1.331 | Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.026 / defence 0.761. League average goals — home 1.529 / away 1.398. Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence strength of 0.761 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 67 Al Khaleej Saihat games / 67 Al-Ahli Jeddah games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Khaleej Saihat 20% | Draw 24% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 56%. Fair-value odds: Al Khaleej Saihat 5.00 | Draw 4.17 | Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.79. The model has a clear lean to Al-Ahli Jeddah (56%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.97. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.97 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Ahli Jeddah are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.97 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.4 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Al Khaleej Saihat 50% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Ahli Jeddah | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 20 May 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Khaleej Saihat 20% | Draw 24% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 56% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 57% | xG Al Khaleej Saihat 1.06 / Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.91 • Poisson strength factors: Al Khaleej Saihat attack 0.915 / def 1.331 | Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.026 / def 0.761 | league avg home 1.529 / away 1.398 • Poisson stance: Al-Ahli Jeddah (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Al Khaleej Saihat xG
Expected Goals
1.91
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
57%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Ahli Jeddah kick off?
Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Ahli Jeddah kicked off at 19:00 on Wednesday 20 May 2026 at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Al Khaleej Saihat 1 - 4 Al-Ahli Jeddah.
Where is Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Ahli Jeddah being played?
The match is being played at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium.
What competition is Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Ahli Jeddah part of?
Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Ahli Jeddah is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our statistical model gives Al Khaleej Saihat a 20% chance of winning, Al-Ahli Jeddah a 56% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Al-Ahli Jeddah the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Ahli Jeddah will score (BTTS).
Will Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Ahli Jeddah have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Record (5 meetings): Al Khaleej Saihat 0W | Draws 1 | Al-Ahli Jeddah 4W.
What form are Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Ahli Jeddah in?
Al Khaleej Saihat (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-W-L-L-L. Al-Ahli Jeddah (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Al Khaleej Saihat's attack at 0.92x the league average against Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence at 0.76x — combine the two and it projects 1.06 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Ahli Jeddah's attack versus Al Khaleej Saihat's defence, projects 1.91 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 67/67 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.9%), 0-2 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ahli Jeddah Win
20%
5.08
24%
4.10
56%
1.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Al Khaleej Saihat xG
Total xG
2.97
1.91
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
5.08
20%
Home win
4.10
24%
Draw
1.79
56%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
15%
6.75
34%
2.90
Win to Nil
3%
34.30
19%
5.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 9.8 | 9.3 | 5.9 | 2.8 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 5.4 | 10.4 | 9.9 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 2.9 | 5.5 | 5.3 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Ahli Jeddah expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Al Khaleej Saihat and 1.91 for Al-Ahli Jeddah, a combined total of 2.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al Khaleej Saihat's recent record stands at 20W 14D 33L from 67 games, a 1.10 PPG return, with W-W-L-L-L in the last five.
Al-Ahli Jeddah, meanwhile, have gone 45W 10D 12L across 67 games — 2.16 PPG, with L-W-W-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Ahli Jeddah by 1.06 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al Khaleej Saihat heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Al Khaleej Saihat have managed 10W 6D 17L from 33 games — 1.09 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Ahli Jeddah's away record stands at 20W 4D 9L across 33 trips, a 1.94 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ahli Jeddah come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al Khaleej Saihat are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 1.72 conceded per game recently; Al-Ahli Jeddah are on 2.03 scored and 0.90 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Khaleej Saihat have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Defensively: Al-Ahli Jeddah in 45% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 67 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Khaleej Saihat
Current Season
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Ahli Jeddah in coming into this match?
Al Khaleej Saihat have gone 20W 14D 33L in their last 67 games (1.10 PPG), while Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 45W 10D 12L in their last 67 (2.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Khaleej Saihat at home or Al-Ahli Jeddah away?
Al-Ahli Jeddah's away record (1.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Khaleej Saihat at home: 1.09 PPG; Al-Ahli Jeddah away: 1.94 PPG.
Have Al Khaleej Saihat or Al-Ahli Jeddah been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Khaleej Saihat have kept a clean sheet in 15% of their recent games, Al-Ahli Jeddah in 45%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Ahli Jeddah runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 20 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Al-Ahli Jeddah go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Oct 2024, when Al-Ahli Jeddah won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al Khaleej Saihat's record when hosting Al-Ahli Jeddah specifically: 0W 0D 3L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Al Khaleej Saihat
1
Draws
5
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
From 6 meetings on record, Al Khaleej Saihat have won 0, Al-Ahli Jeddah have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Ahli Jeddah last play each other?
They last met on 20 May 2026, when Al Khaleej Saihat 1-4 Al-Ahli Jeddah.
Who has won more matches between Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al Khaleej Saihat are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Al-Ahli Jeddah see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Khaleej Saihat 48%, Al-Ahli Jeddah 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Al Khaleej Saihat) and 36% (Al-Ahli Jeddah).
On the defensive side: Al-Ahli Jeddah in 48%; Al Khaleej Saihat have failed to score in 36% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Khaleej Saihat home games / Al-Ahli Jeddah away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Khaleej Saihat play Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Al Khaleej Saihat's recent matches and 36% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Ahli Jeddah usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 61% of Al Khaleej Saihat's recent games and 36% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Ahli Jeddah tend to score early?
Al Khaleej Saihat have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Al-Ahli Jeddah in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al-Ahli Jeddah run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Al Khaleej Saihat.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ahli Jeddah beat Al Khaleej Saihat 1-4 at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 34, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Khaleej Saihat 1.06 xG and Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.91 xG, a combined 2.97. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Al-Ahli Jeddah outscored their 1.91 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Khaleej Saihat attack 0.92 / defence 1.33 against Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.03 / defence 0.76, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Khaleej Saihat 20% | Draw 24% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 56%, with Al-Ahli Jeddah to win its most likely call at 56%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Khaleej Saihat 64%, Al-Ahli Jeddah 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Khaleej Saihat's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Ahli Jeddah's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Ahli Jeddah arrived the stronger side — 2.16 PPG against 1.10. That form edge translated into the three points. Al Khaleej Saihat (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.64 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Ahli Jeddah (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.45 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.