Al-Ittihad FC 2-1 Damac – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Ittihad FC at 49% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Ittihad FC vs Damac encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al-Ittihad FC and Damac meet at King Abdullah Sports City in Pro League, Regular Season - 32. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 10 May 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al-Ittihad FC have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: L W L W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Al-Ittihad FC's home record at King Abdullah Sports City: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Pro League appearances (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at King Abdullah Sports City. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Al-Ittihad FC are significantly better at King Abdullah Sports City than their overall form suggests.
Damac's overall Pro League record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L D W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Damac's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.50 for Al-Ittihad FC, 1.10 for Damac — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 9 meetings: Al-Ittihad FC 4W, Damac 2W, 3D.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Jan 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Al-Ittihad FC — key trading statistics (64 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 95% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 55% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Damac — key trading statistics (64 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ittihad FC 62% versus Damac 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ittihad FC 55% | Damac 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ittihad FC 1.35 xG and Damac 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ittihad FC attack 0.847 / defence 0.817 | Damac attack 0.689 / defence 1.054. League average goals — home 1.509 / away 1.444. Data: 64 Al-Ittihad FC games / 65 Damac games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ittihad FC 49% | Draw 29% | Damac 22%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ittihad FC 2.04 | Draw 3.45 | Damac 4.55. Al-Ittihad FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.16. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.16 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Ittihad FC at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Ittihad FC if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.16 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 37% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. Form rates corroborate: Al-Ittihad FC 30% | Damac 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ittihad FC vs Damac | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: King Abdullah Sports City • Kick-off: Sunday 10 May 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ittihad FC 49% | Draw 29% | Damac 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 42% | xG Al-Ittihad FC 1.35 / Damac 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ittihad FC attack 0.847 / def 0.817 | Damac attack 0.689 / def 1.054 | league avg home 1.509 / away 1.444 • Poisson stance: Al-Ittihad FC (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Al-Ittihad FC xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Damac xG
42%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ittihad FC vs Damac kick off?
Al-Ittihad FC vs Damac kicked off at 19:00 on Sunday 10 May 2026 at King Abdullah Sports City.
What was the final score in Al-Ittihad FC vs Damac?
Al-Ittihad FC 2 - 1 Damac.
Where is Al-Ittihad FC vs Damac being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sports City.
What competition is Al-Ittihad FC vs Damac part of?
Al-Ittihad FC vs Damac is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ittihad FC vs Damac?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ittihad FC a 49% chance of winning, Damac a 22% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Al-Ittihad FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ittihad FC vs Damac?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Al-Ittihad FC and Damac will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ittihad FC vs Damac have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad FC and Damac?
Record (9 meetings): Al-Ittihad FC 4W | Draws 3 | Damac 2W.
What form are Al-Ittihad FC and Damac in?
Al-Ittihad FC (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-W-D. Damac (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Al-Ittihad FC's attack at 0.85x the league average against Damac's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 1.35 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Damac's attack (0.69x) against Al-Ittihad FC's defence (0.82x) — and the away total comes out at 0.81.
These ratings are built from 64/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (13.9%), 0-0 (13.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ittihad FC Win
49%
2.05
29%
3.41
22%
4.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 0
11.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Al-Ittihad FC xG
Total xG
2.16
0.81
Damac xG
2.05
49%
Home win
3.41
29%
Draw
4.56
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.39
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
44%
2.25
26%
3.85
Win to Nil
22%
4.62
6%
17.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.5 | 9.4 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.5 | 12.6 | 5.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.5 | 8.5 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.7 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ittihad FC vs Damac?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Al-Ittihad FC and Damac expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Al-Ittihad FC and 0.81 for Damac, a combined total of 2.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ittihad FC vs Damac?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Al-Ittihad FC's recent record stands at 40W 12D 12L from 64 games, a 2.06 PPG return, with L-W-L-W-D in the last five.
Damac, meanwhile, have gone 14W 19D 31L across 64 games — 0.95 PPG, with L-D-W-L-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Ittihad FC by 1.11 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Damac heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Al-Ittihad FC have managed 25W 2D 5L from 32 games — 2.41 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Damac's away record stands at 5W 9D 18L across 32 trips, a 0.75 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ittihad FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al-Ittihad FC are averaging 1.97 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Damac are on 1.00 scored and 1.53 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Ittihad FC have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 64 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ittihad FC
Current Season
Damac
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ittihad FC and Damac in coming into this match?
Al-Ittihad FC have gone 40W 12D 12L in their last 64 games (2.06 PPG), while Damac have gone 14W 19D 31L in their last 64 (0.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ittihad FC at home or Damac away?
Al-Ittihad FC's home record (2.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ittihad FC at home: 2.41 PPG; Damac away: 0.75 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 10 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Ittihad FC won 3-0 on 4 Apr 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Ittihad FC have gone 5W 0D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Damac — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Al-Ittihad FC
3
Draws
2
Damac
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad FC and Damac?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Ittihad FC have won 5, Damac have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ittihad FC and Damac last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Al-Ittihad FC 2-1 Damac.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ittihad FC and Damac?
Al-Ittihad FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al-Ittihad FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Damac are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ittihad FC 53%, Damac 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Al-Ittihad FC) and 47% (Damac).
On the defensive side: Al-Ittihad FC keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Damac in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ittihad FC home games / Damac away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ittihad FC play Damac?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Al-Ittihad FC's recent matches and 53% of Damac's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Ittihad FC vs Damac usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Al-Ittihad FC's recent games and 47% of Damac's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Ittihad FC and Damac tend to score early?
Al-Ittihad FC have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, Damac in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Ittihad FC edge out Damac 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ittihad FC beat Damac 2-1 at King Abdullah Sports City, Regular Season - 32, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ittihad FC 1.35 xG and Damac 0.81 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ittihad FC attack 0.85 / defence 0.82 against Damac attack 0.69 / defence 1.05, drawn from 64/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ittihad FC 49% | Draw 29% | Damac 22%, with Al-Ittihad FC to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ittihad FC 55%, Damac 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ittihad FC's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Damac's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Ittihad FC arrived the stronger side — 2.06 PPG against 0.95. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.