Al-Ittihad FC 2-5 Al-Nassr – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Nassr at 51% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Nassr encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Al-Ittihad FC welcome Al-Nassr to Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium in Pro League (matchday 17). Kick-off is Tuesday 26 December 2023 at 18:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Al-Ittihad FC — last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: W D W L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Al-Ittihad FC have gone 6W 1D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Al-Ittihad FC are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, Al-Nassr have recorded 8W 1D 1L — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Al-Nassr away from home: 7W 1D 2L from their last 10 away games — 2.20 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.50 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. Al-Nassr's 2.50 PPG return is 1.50 points per game ahead of Al-Ittihad FC's 1.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Al-Ittihad FC's games and 70% of Al-Nassr's (from Al-Ittihad FC's last 10 home games and Al-Nassr's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Al-Ittihad FC, 0 for Al-Nassr and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Scoring has been limited in the 3 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.3 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 9 Mar 2023, ended Al-Ittihad FC 1–0 Al-Nassr — a Al-Ittihad FC win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Al-Ittihad FC trading profile (last 47 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time.
Al-Nassr trading profile (last 47 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 57% of the time; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 75%; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ittihad FC 40% versus Al-Nassr 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ittihad FC 57% | Al-Nassr 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ittihad FC 1.67 xG and Al-Nassr 2.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.226 / defence 1.213 | Al-Nassr attack 1.354 / defence 0.892. League average goals — home 1.526 / away 1.383. Al-Nassr have an above-average attack rating of 1.354, which lifts their away xG to 2.27. Al-Ittihad FC's defence rating of 1.213 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Al-Nassr's projected output up. Data: built from Al-Ittihad FC's last 47 games and Al-Nassr's last 47.
Result probabilities: Al-Ittihad FC 28% | Draw 21% | Al-Nassr 51%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ittihad FC 3.57 | Draw 4.81 | Al-Nassr 1.95. Al-Nassr hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 75% | BTTS Yes probability 73% | Total xG 3.94. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 75% — a total xG of 3.94 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 73% — both xG figures (1.67 / 2.27) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Nassr at 51% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.94 combined xG gives a 75% probability to Over 2.5 — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Al-Ittihad FC's last 10 home games and Al-Nassr's last 10 away games) averaging 3.6 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging only 1.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 73% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al-Ittihad FC 60% (last 10 home games) | Al-Nassr 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Nassr | Competition: Pro League, matchday 17 | Venue: Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 26 December 2023 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ittihad FC 28% | Draw 21% | Al-Nassr 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 75% (Under 25%) | BTTS Yes 73% (No 27%) | xG Al-Ittihad FC 1.67 / Al-Nassr 2.27 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.226 / def 1.213 | Al-Nassr attack 1.354 / def 0.892 | league avg home 1.526 / away 1.383 • Poisson stance: Al-Nassr (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
Al-Ittihad FC xG
Expected Goals
2.27
Al-Nassr xG
73%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
75%
Over 2.5
55%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Nassr FAQs
What time does Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Nassr kick off?
Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Nassr kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Tuesday 26 December 2023 at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Nassr?
Al-Ittihad FC 2 - 5 Al-Nassr.
Where is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Nassr being played?
The match is being played at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium.
What competition is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Nassr part of?
Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Nassr is a Pro League fixture (matchday 17) (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Nassr?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ittihad FC a 28% chance of winning, Al-Nassr a 51% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Al-Nassr the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Nassr?
Our model estimates a 73% probability that both Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Nassr will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Nassr have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 75%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Al-Ittihad FC's attack at 1.23x the league average against Al-Nassr's defence at 0.89x — combine the two and it projects 1.67 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Nassr's attack versus Al-Ittihad FC's defence, projects 2.27 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Al-Ittihad FC's last 47 games and Al-Nassr's last 47 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-2 carries the highest individual probability at 8.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (8.3%), 2-2 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Nassr Win
28%
3.57
21%
4.81
51%
1.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
8.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.4%
Draw
2 – 2
7.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.67
Al-Ittihad FC xG
Total xG
3.94
2.27
Al-Nassr xG
3.57
28%
Home win
4.81
21%
Draw
1.95
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
75%
Over 2.5
1.33
25%
Under 2.5
4.00
55%
Over 3.5
1.82
45%
Under 3.5
2.22
36%
Over 4.5
2.78
64%
Under 4.5
1.56
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
73%
BTTS Yes
1.37
27%
BTTS No
3.72
Clean Sheet
10%
9.69
19%
5.30
Win to Nil
3%
34.57
10%
10.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.9 | 4.4 | 5.0 | 3.8 | 2.2 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 3.2 | 7.4 | 8.4 | 6.3 | 3.6 | 1.6 |
| 2 | 2.7 | 6.2 | 7.0 | 5.3 | 3.0 | 1.4 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 3.4 | 3.9 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 0.8 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Nassr Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Nassr?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.4%.
How many goals are Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Nassr expected to score?
The model projects 1.67 expected goals for Al-Ittihad FC and 2.27 for Al-Nassr, a combined total of 3.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Nassr?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 47 outings, Al-Ittihad FC have picked up 2.13 PPG on a 30W 10D 7L record — W-D-W-L-L across the most recent five.
Al-Nassr's form line: 33W 8D 6L from 47 games, 2.28 PPG, last five W-W-L-W-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al-Ittihad FC on 2.13 PPG, Al-Nassr on 2.28. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Al-Ittihad FC have posted 2.22 PPG from their last 23 home games (16W 3D 4L).
On the road, Al-Nassr have gone 14W 4D 5L from their last 23 away games — 2.00 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Al-Ittihad FC are averaging 1.96 goals scored and 0.72 conceded per game recently; Al-Nassr are on 2.32 scored and 0.81 conceded. Al-Ittihad FC's scoring rate against Al-Nassr's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: Al-Ittihad FC have kept a clean sheet in 53% of their games; Al-Nassr in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 47 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ittihad FC
Blended
Al-Nassr
Blended
Al-Ittihad FC (Home) vs Al-Nassr (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Al-Ittihad FC
Blended
Al-Nassr
Blended
❓ Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Nassr Form FAQs
What form are Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Nassr in coming into this match?
Al-Ittihad FC have gone 30W 10D 7L in their last 47 games (2.13 PPG), while Al-Nassr have gone 33W 8D 6L in their last 47 (2.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ittihad FC at home or Al-Nassr away?
Al-Ittihad FC's home record (2.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ittihad FC at home: 2.22 PPG; Al-Nassr away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Al-Ittihad FC or Al-Nassr been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Ittihad FC have kept a clean sheet in 53% of their recent games, Al-Nassr in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to February 2022. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent was as recently as 5 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 11 Feb 2022, when Al-Ittihad FC won Al-Ittihad FC 3-0 Al-Nassr.
Al-Ittihad FC's record when hosting Al-Nassr specifically: 4W 0D 2L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Al-Ittihad FC
1
Draws
4
Al-Nassr
Recent Meetings
❓ Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Nassr H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Nassr?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Al-Ittihad FC have won 5, Al-Nassr have won 4, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Nassr last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 5 September 2026: Al-Ittihad FC 2-1 Al-Nassr.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Nassr?
Al-Ittihad FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Ittihad FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 61% of the time.
Al-Nassr are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ittihad FC 35%, Al-Nassr 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 56% for Al-Ittihad FC and 65% for Al-Nassr. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Ittihad FC keep a clean sheet in 56% of their matches; Al-Nassr in 44%; Al-Nassr in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ittihad FC home games / Al-Nassr away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Nassr Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Nassr matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 35% of Al-Ittihad FC's recent matches and 39% of Al-Nassr's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Nassr matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Al-Ittihad FC's matches and 65% of Al-Nassr's.
Do Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Nassr matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 74% of Al-Ittihad FC's recent matches and 70% of Al-Nassr's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al-Nassr run riot with a 2-5 hammering of Al-Ittihad FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Nassr beat Al-Ittihad FC 2-5 at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ittihad FC 1.67 xG and Al-Nassr 2.27 xG, a combined 3.94. The scoreboard read 2-5 for 7 actual goals. Al-Nassr outscored their 2.27 projection by 2.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.23 / defence 1.21 against Al-Nassr attack 1.35 / defence 0.89, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ittihad FC 28% | Draw 21% | Al-Nassr 51%, with Al-Nassr to win its most likely call at 51%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 75%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 55% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 73% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ittihad FC 57%, Al-Nassr 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ittihad FC's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time, and conceded here.
Al-Nassr's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Ittihad FC 2.13 PPG, Al-Nassr 2.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Nassr win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Ittihad FC (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 0.78 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Nassr (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.22 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.78 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.