Al-Ittihad FC 3-0 Al-Hazm – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Ittihad FC at 65% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Hazm encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 25 sees Al-Hazm travel to King Abdullah Sports City to take on Al-Ittihad FC. The game is scheduled for Friday 18 March 2022, 15:05 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Ittihad FC stand at 8W 1D 1L from 10 Pro League matches — 2.50 PPG. Last five: D W W L W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ittihad FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at King Abdullah Sports City, Al-Ittihad FC have gone 8W 1D 1L this season (10 games, 2.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at King Abdullah Sports City. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Hazm have recorded 1W 0D 9L from 10 outings — 0.30 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Hazm, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Hazm away from home this season: 1W 1D 8L from 10 away games — 0.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Al-Ittihad FC are in the better shape of the two on current Pro League data — 2.20 PPG ahead (2.50 vs 0.30). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Al-Ittihad FC's 30% rate and Al-Hazm's 30% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Al-Ittihad FC, 0 for Al-Hazm and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 28 Oct 2021, ended 1–0 with Al-Ittihad FC winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Al-Ittihad FC in-play and half-time data (24 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Al-Hazm in-play and half-time data (24 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they fail to score in 58% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ittihad FC 50% versus Al-Hazm 29%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ittihad FC 54% | Al-Hazm 29%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ittihad FC 1.65 xG and Al-Hazm 0.53 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.222 / defence 0.909 | Al-Hazm attack 0.525 / defence 1.171. League average goals — home 1.155 / away 1.117. Data: 24 Al-Ittihad FC games / 24 Al-Hazm games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ittihad FC 65% | Draw 24% | Al-Hazm 12%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ittihad FC 1.54 | Draw 4.17 | Al-Hazm 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Al-Ittihad FC (65%) — a 53pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 33% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No has firm model support at 67% — Al-Hazm's lower xG of 0.53 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 33%.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Ittihad FC as the most likely outcome at 65% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.19 combined xG gives a 37% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 33% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al-Ittihad FC 30% | Al-Hazm 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Hazm | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: King Abdullah Sports City • Kick-off: Friday 18 Mar 2022, 15:05 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ittihad FC 65% | Draw 24% | Al-Hazm 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 33% | xG Al-Ittihad FC 1.65 / Al-Hazm 0.53 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.222 / def 0.909 | Al-Hazm attack 0.525 / def 1.171 | league avg home 1.155 / away 1.117 • Poisson stance: Al-Ittihad FC (65%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.65
Al-Ittihad FC xG
Expected Goals
0.53
Al-Hazm xG
33%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Hazm kick off?
Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Hazm kicked off at 15:05 on Friday 18 March 2022 at King Abdullah Sports City.
What was the final score in Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Hazm?
Al-Ittihad FC 3 - 0 Al-Hazm.
Where is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Hazm being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sports City.
What competition is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Hazm part of?
Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Hazm is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Hazm?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ittihad FC a 65% chance of winning, Al-Hazm a 12% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Al-Ittihad FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Hazm?
Our model estimates a 33% probability that both Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Hazm will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Hazm have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Hazm?
Record (1 meetings): Al-Ittihad FC 1W | Draws 0 | Al-Hazm 0W.
What form are Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Hazm in?
Al-Ittihad FC (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-W-L-W. Al-Hazm (all comps): 1W-0D-9L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Al-Ittihad FC's attacking strength (1.22x league average) is weighed against Al-Hazm's defensive record (1.17x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.65. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Hazm's attack versus Al-Ittihad FC's defence, projects 0.53 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 24/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 17.3%. Close behind: 2-0 (15.3%), 0-0 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ittihad FC Win
65%
1.54
24%
4.25
12%
8.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
15.3%
Home win
0 – 0
11.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.65
Al-Ittihad FC xG
Total xG
2.19
0.53
Al-Hazm xG
1.54
65%
Home win
4.25
24%
Draw
8.64
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
33%
BTTS Yes
2.99
67%
BTTS No
1.50
Clean Sheet
59%
1.71
19%
5.22
Win to Nil
38%
2.63
2%
45.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.2 | 6.0 | 1.6 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 1 | 18.6 | 9.9 | 2.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 15.3 | 8.2 | 2.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 8.5 | 4.5 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Hazm?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.3%.
How many goals are Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Hazm expected to score?
The model projects 1.65 expected goals for Al-Ittihad FC and 0.53 for Al-Hazm, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Hazm?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al-Ittihad FC come into this having played 24 games, going 18W 3D 3L for 2.38 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-L-W. The sample for Al-Ittihad FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al-Hazm sit at 0.58 PPG from 24 outings (3W 5D 16L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Al-Hazm is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Ittihad FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.80 PPG clear of Al-Hazm — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Al-Ittihad FC's home form reads 10W 1D 1L across 12 games on their own ground, a 2.58 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Hazm have taken 0.33 points per game from 12 outings (1W 1D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ittihad FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Ittihad FC are averaging 2.12 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per game recently; Al-Hazm are on 0.62 scored and 1.29 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Hazm in 29%.
Defensively: Al-Ittihad FC have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 24 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ittihad FC
Blended
Al-Hazm
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Hazm in coming into this match?
Al-Ittihad FC have gone 18W 3D 3L in their last 24 games (2.38 PPG), while Al-Hazm have gone 3W 5D 16L in their last 24 (0.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ittihad FC at home or Al-Hazm away?
Al-Ittihad FC's home record (2.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ittihad FC at home: 2.58 PPG; Al-Hazm away: 0.33 PPG.
Have Al-Ittihad FC or Al-Hazm been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Ittihad FC have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Al-Hazm in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 3 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Mar 2022, when Al-Ittihad FC won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Ittihad FC's record when hosting Al-Hazm specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Al-Ittihad FC
2
Draws
0
Al-Hazm
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Hazm?
From 6 meetings on record, Al-Ittihad FC have won 4, Al-Hazm have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Hazm last play each other?
They last met on 3 April 2026, when Al-Ittihad FC 1-0 Al-Hazm.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Hazm?
Al-Ittihad FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Ittihad FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 58% of the time.
Al-Hazm see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Al-Ittihad FC 33% BTTS, Al-Hazm 25%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Al-Ittihad FC) and 25% (Al-Hazm).
On the defensive side: Al-Ittihad FC keep a clean sheet in 58% of their matches; Al-Hazm in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ittihad FC home games / Al-Hazm away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ittihad FC play Al-Hazm?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Al-Ittihad FC's recent matches and 25% of Al-Hazm's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Hazm usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Al-Ittihad FC's recent games and 25% of Al-Hazm's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Hazm tend to score early?
Al-Ittihad FC have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Al-Hazm in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al-Ittihad FC run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Al-Hazm.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ittihad FC beat Al-Hazm 3-0 at King Abdullah Sports City, Regular Season - 25, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ittihad FC 1.65 xG and Al-Hazm 0.53 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Al-Ittihad FC beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.22 / defence 0.91 against Al-Hazm attack 0.53 / defence 1.17, drawn from 24/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ittihad FC 65% | Draw 24% | Al-Hazm 12%, with Al-Ittihad FC to win its most likely call at 65%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 33% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ittihad FC 54%, Al-Hazm 29%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ittihad FC's trading profile (24 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.
Al-Hazm's trading profile (24 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 58% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Ittihad FC arrived the stronger side — 2.38 PPG against 0.58. That form edge translated into the three points. Al-Hazm (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.