Al-Ittihad FC 2-1 Al-Fateh – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al-Ittihad FC (42%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al-Ittihad FC face Al-Fateh.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al-Ittihad FC host Al-Fateh at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off is scheduled for Thursday 21 September 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Ittihad FC stand at 8W 1D 1L from 10 Pro League matches — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 8 clean sheets from 10 games (80%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. Al-Ittihad FC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al-Ittihad FC have posted 8W 1D 1L at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium — 2.50 PPG. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 8 clean sheets from 10 home games (80%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Al-Fateh — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Al-Fateh have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Fateh have posted 5W 2D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support.
Al-Ittihad FC are in the better shape of the two on current Pro League data — 1.00 PPG ahead (2.50 vs 1.50). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The fixture history tells a clear story: Al-Ittihad FC have dominated this rivalry, winning 3 of 4 past contests while Al-Fateh have managed just 0 wins.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 5.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 18 Mar 2023, ended 5–1 with Al-Ittihad FC winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Al-Ittihad FC and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 4 meetings, combined with an average of 5.2 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Patterns
Al-Ittihad FC in-play and half-time data (36 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 18% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time.
Al-Fateh in-play and half-time data (36 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 82% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ittihad FC 31% versus Al-Fateh 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ittihad FC 58% | Al-Fateh 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ittihad FC 1.86 xG and Al-Fateh 1.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.249 / defence 0.934 | Al-Fateh attack 1.264 / defence 1.026. League average goals — home 1.456 / away 1.448. Al-Fateh have an above-average attack strength of 1.264 — the away xG of 1.71 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 36 Al-Ittihad FC games / 36 Al-Fateh games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ittihad FC 42% | Draw 22% | Al-Fateh 36%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ittihad FC 2.38 | Draw 4.55 | Al-Fateh 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 22% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.57. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.57 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (1.86 / 1.71) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Ittihad FC are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Ittihad FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.57 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 69% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 5.2 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 69%. This conflicts with form data: Al-Ittihad FC 20% | Al-Fateh 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fateh | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 21 Sep 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ittihad FC 42% | Draw 22% | Al-Fateh 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 69% | xG Al-Ittihad FC 1.86 / Al-Fateh 1.71 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.249 / def 0.934 | Al-Fateh attack 1.264 / def 1.026 | league avg home 1.456 / away 1.448 • Poisson stance: Al-Ittihad FC (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.86
Al-Ittihad FC xG
Expected Goals
1.71
Al-Fateh xG
69%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fateh kick off?
Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fateh kicked off at 19:00 on Thursday 21 September 2023 at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fateh?
Al-Ittihad FC 2 - 1 Al-Fateh.
Where is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fateh being played?
The match is being played at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium.
What competition is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fateh part of?
Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fateh is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fateh?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ittihad FC a 42% chance of winning, Al-Fateh a 36% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Al-Ittihad FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fateh?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Fateh will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fateh have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Fateh?
Record (4 meetings): Al-Ittihad FC 3W | Draws 1 | Al-Fateh 0W.
What form are Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Fateh in?
Al-Ittihad FC (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-W-L-W. Al-Fateh (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Al-Ittihad FC's attacking strength (1.25x league average) is weighed against Al-Fateh's defensive record (1.03x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.86. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Fateh's attack versus Al-Ittihad FC's defence, projects 1.71 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 36/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.3%), 1-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ittihad FC Win
42%
2.37
22%
4.55
36%
2.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.3%
Home win
1 – 2
7.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.86
Al-Ittihad FC xG
Total xG
3.57
1.71
Al-Fateh xG
2.37
42%
Home win
4.55
22%
Draw
2.79
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.45
31%
BTTS No
3.25
Clean Sheet
18%
5.52
15%
6.46
Win to Nil
8%
13.08
6%
18.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 4.8 | 4.1 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 5.2 | 8.9 | 7.6 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 8.3 | 7.1 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 5.2 | 4.4 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fateh?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.1%.
How many goals are Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Fateh expected to score?
The model projects 1.86 expected goals for Al-Ittihad FC and 1.71 for Al-Fateh, a combined total of 3.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fateh?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al-Ittihad FC come into this having played 36 games, going 27W 6D 3L for 2.42 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-L-W. It's still early in the season for Al-Ittihad FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Al-Fateh sit at 1.50 PPG from 36 outings (16W 6D 14L), a run that reads W-L-D-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Fateh, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Ittihad FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.92 PPG clear of Al-Fateh — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Al-Ittihad FC's home form reads 13W 2D 2L across 17 games on their own ground, a 2.41 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Fateh have taken 1.53 points per game from 17 outings (8W 2D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ittihad FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al-Ittihad FC are averaging 2.11 goals scored and 0.47 conceded per game recently; Al-Fateh are on 1.72 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Ittihad FC have kept a clean sheet in 67% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 36 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ittihad FC
Early Season
Al-Fateh
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Fateh in coming into this match?
Al-Ittihad FC have gone 27W 6D 3L in their last 36 games (2.42 PPG), while Al-Fateh have gone 16W 6D 14L in their last 36 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ittihad FC at home or Al-Fateh away?
Al-Ittihad FC's home record (2.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ittihad FC at home: 2.41 PPG; Al-Fateh away: 1.53 PPG.
Have Al-Ittihad FC or Al-Fateh been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Ittihad FC have kept a clean sheet in 67% of their recent games, Al-Fateh in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Fateh runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 29 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Mar 2023, when Al-Ittihad FC won 1-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Ittihad FC's record when hosting Al-Fateh specifically: 5W 0D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Al-Ittihad FC
2
Draws
1
Al-Fateh
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Fateh?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Ittihad FC have won 7, Al-Fateh have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Fateh last play each other?
They last met on 29 January 2026, when Al-Fateh 2-2 Al-Ittihad FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Fateh?
Al-Ittihad FC have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Ittihad FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 59% of the time.
Al-Fateh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ittihad FC 18%, Al-Fateh 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 47% for Al-Ittihad FC and 82% for Al-Fateh. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 24% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Ittihad FC keep a clean sheet in 76% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ittihad FC home games / Al-Fateh away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ittihad FC play Al-Fateh?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 18% of Al-Ittihad FC's recent matches and 59% of Al-Fateh's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fateh usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 47% of Al-Ittihad FC's matches and 82% of Al-Fateh's.
Do Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Fateh tend to score early?
Al-Ittihad FC have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Al-Fateh in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Ittihad FC edge out Al-Fateh 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ittihad FC beat Al-Fateh 2-1 at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium, Regular Season - 7, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ittihad FC 1.86 xG and Al-Fateh 1.71 xG, a combined 3.57. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.25 / defence 0.93 against Al-Fateh attack 1.26 / defence 1.03, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ittihad FC 42% | Draw 22% | Al-Fateh 36%, with Al-Ittihad FC to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ittihad FC 58%, Al-Fateh 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ittihad FC's trading profile (36 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 31% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time, and conceded here.
Al-Fateh's trading profile (36 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Ittihad FC arrived the stronger side — 2.42 PPG against 1.50. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.