Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Faisaly FC – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al-Ittihad FC (60%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al-Ittihad FC face Al-Faisaly FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Al-Faisaly FC make the trip to King Abdullah Sports City to face Al-Ittihad FC in Pro League, Regular Season - 24. The match kicks off on Friday 2 April 2027 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al-Ittihad FC have collected 2.30 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 7W 2D 1L. Last five: W L W W D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ittihad FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Ittihad FC's home record at King Abdullah Sports City: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Pro League appearances (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Al-Faisaly FC (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: W D L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Faisaly FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Faisaly FC's away record: 1W 2D 3L from 6 road trips in Pro League this season (0.83 PPG). Away from home they average 1.17 goals scored and 2.17 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The points-per-game gap of 1.30 in Al-Ittihad FC's favour (2.30 vs 1.00) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Al-Ittihad FC have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Al-Faisaly FC in 67%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Across 3 previous meetings, Al-Ittihad FC are the stronger side on paper — 3 victories to 0, with 0 draws in between.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Sep 2026, ended 3–1 with Al-Ittihad FC winning.
The historical record gives Al-Ittihad FC a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 3 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Al-Ittihad FC — key trading statistics (12 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Al-Faisaly FC — key trading statistics (12 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 58%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Ittihad FC 75% and Al-Faisaly FC 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ittihad FC 58% | Al-Faisaly FC 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ittihad FC 2.08 xG and Al-Faisaly FC 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.098 / defence 0.856 | Al-Faisaly FC attack 0.798 / defence 1.256. League average goals — home 1.505 / away 1.475. Al-Faisaly FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.256 — this is suppressing Al-Ittihad FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 45 Al-Ittihad FC games / 12 Al-Faisaly FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ittihad FC 60% | Draw 24% | Al-Faisaly FC 16%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ittihad FC 1.67 | Draw 4.17 | Al-Faisaly FC 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Al-Ittihad FC (60%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.08. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.08 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Ittihad FC as the most likely outcome at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.08 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al-Ittihad FC 70% | Al-Faisaly FC 67% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Faisaly FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: King Abdullah Sports City • Kick-off: Friday 2 Apr 2027, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ittihad FC 60% | Draw 24% | Al-Faisaly FC 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 57% | xG Al-Ittihad FC 2.08 / Al-Faisaly FC 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.098 / def 0.856 | Al-Faisaly FC attack 0.798 / def 1.256 | league avg home 1.505 / away 1.475 • Poisson stance: Al-Ittihad FC (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.08
Al-Ittihad FC xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Al-Faisaly FC xG
57%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Faisaly FC kick off?
Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Faisaly FC is scheduled to kick off at 18:00 on Friday 2 April 2027 at King Abdullah Sports City.
Where is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Faisaly FC being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sports City.
What competition is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Faisaly FC part of?
Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Faisaly FC is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Faisaly FC?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ittihad FC a 60% chance of winning, Al-Faisaly FC a 16% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Al-Ittihad FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Faisaly FC?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Faisaly FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Faisaly FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Faisaly FC?
Record (3 meetings): Al-Ittihad FC 3W | Draws 0 | Al-Faisaly FC 0W.
What form are Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Faisaly FC in?
Al-Ittihad FC (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-W-D. Al-Faisaly FC (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Al-Ittihad FC's attack rating (1.10) and Al-Faisaly FC's defence rating (1.26), the model arrives at 2.08 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al-Faisaly FC's attack (0.80x) against Al-Ittihad FC's defence (0.86x) — and the away total comes out at 1.01.
These ratings are built from 45/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ittihad FC Win
60%
1.67
24%
4.11
16%
6.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 1
9.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.08
Al-Ittihad FC xG
Total xG
3.08
1.01
Al-Faisaly FC xG
1.67
60%
Home win
4.11
24%
Draw
6.40
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
36%
2.74
13%
7.97
Win to Nil
22%
4.56
2%
51.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 9.5 | 9.6 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 9.9 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.8 | 6.9 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.5 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Faisaly FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Faisaly FC expected to score?
The model projects 2.08 expected goals for Al-Ittihad FC and 1.01 for Al-Faisaly FC, a combined total of 3.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Faisaly FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al-Ittihad FC's recent record stands at 7W 3D 2L from 12 games, a 2.00 PPG return, with W-L-W-W-D in the last five. The sample for Al-Ittihad FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Faisaly FC, meanwhile, have gone 2W 4D 6L across 12 games — 0.83 PPG, with W-D-L-W-L in their last five. The sample for Al-Faisaly FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Ittihad FC by 1.17 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al-Faisaly FC heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Al-Ittihad FC have managed 4W 1D 1L from 6 games — 2.17 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Faisaly FC's away record stands at 1W 2D 3L across 6 trips, a 0.83 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ittihad FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Al-Ittihad FC are averaging 1.83 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Al-Faisaly FC are on 1.08 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Ittihad FC have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games; Al-Faisaly FC in 67%.
Last 12 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ittihad FC
Blended
Al-Faisaly FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Faisaly FC in coming into this match?
Al-Ittihad FC have gone 7W 3D 2L in their last 12 games (2.00 PPG), while Al-Faisaly FC have gone 2W 4D 6L in their last 12 (0.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ittihad FC at home or Al-Faisaly FC away?
Al-Ittihad FC's home record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ittihad FC at home: 2.17 PPG; Al-Faisaly FC away: 0.83 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 3 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 5 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 11 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Al-Ittihad FC have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
Last 3 Meetings
3
Al-Ittihad FC
0
Draws
0
Al-Faisaly FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Faisaly FC?
From 3 meetings on record, Al-Ittihad FC have won 3, Al-Faisaly FC have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Faisaly FC last play each other?
They last met on 11 September 2026, when Al-Faisaly FC 1-3 Al-Ittihad FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Faisaly FC?
Al-Ittihad FC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al-Ittihad FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Al-Faisaly FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 83% for Al-Ittihad FC, 67% for Al-Faisaly FC — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Al-Ittihad FC and 67% for Al-Faisaly FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 67% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Faisaly FC in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ittihad FC home games / Al-Faisaly FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ittihad FC play Al-Faisaly FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 83% of Al-Ittihad FC's games and 67% of Al-Faisaly FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Faisaly FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Al-Ittihad FC's matches and 67% of Al-Faisaly FC's.
Do Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Faisaly FC tend to score early?
Al-Ittihad FC have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Al-Faisaly FC in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.