Al-Hilal Saudi FC 6-1 Al Riyadh – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 67% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Riyadh encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 6 as Al-Hilal Saudi FC welcome Al Riyadh to Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium. Kick-off is set for Friday 15 September 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Hilal Saudi FC stand at 7W 2D 1L from 10 Pro League matches — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Al-Hilal Saudi FC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 6W 3D 1L this season (10 games, 2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al Riyadh have recorded 1W 1D 3L from 5 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 5 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. Al Riyadh have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.30 vs 0.80. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
In-Play Data
Al-Hilal Saudi FC trading profile (5 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games; Over 3.5 in 60%; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Al Riyadh trading profile (5 games): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games; Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 60% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Hilal Saudi FC 60% versus Al Riyadh 20%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Hilal Saudi FC 60% | Al Riyadh 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.17 xG and Al Riyadh 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.172 / defence 0.834 | Al Riyadh attack 0.768 / defence 1.362. League average goals — home 1.363 / away 1.392. Al Riyadh bring a strong defensive rating of 1.362 — this is suppressing Al-Hilal Saudi FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 35 Al-Hilal Saudi FC games / 5 Al Riyadh games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 67% | Draw 19% | Al Riyadh 14%. Fair-value odds: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.49 | Draw 5.26 | Al Riyadh 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Al-Hilal Saudi FC (67%) — a 53pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 3.07. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.07 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Hilal Saudi FC are the pick at 67% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.07 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 60% | Al Riyadh 20% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Riyadh | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 15 Sep 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 67% | Draw 19% | Al Riyadh 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 52% | xG Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.17 / Al Riyadh 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.172 / def 0.834 | Al Riyadh attack 0.768 / def 1.362 | league avg home 1.363 / away 1.392 • Poisson stance: Al-Hilal Saudi FC (67%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.17
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Al Riyadh xG
52%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Riyadh kick off?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Riyadh kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 15 September 2023 at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Riyadh?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC 6 - 1 Al Riyadh.
Where is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Riyadh being played?
The match is being played at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium.
What competition is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Riyadh part of?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Riyadh is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Riyadh?
Our statistical model gives Al-Hilal Saudi FC a 67% chance of winning, Al Riyadh a 14% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Al-Hilal Saudi FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Riyadh?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Riyadh will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Riyadh have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Riyadh?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Riyadh in?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-W-W-W. Al Riyadh (all comps): 1W-1D-3L in 5 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Al-Hilal Saudi FC's attack rating (1.17) and Al Riyadh's defence rating (1.36), the model arrives at 2.17 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al Riyadh's attack versus Al-Hilal Saudi FC's defence, projects 0.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 35/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.0%. Close behind: 1-1 (10.2%), 2-1 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Hilal Saudi FC Win
67%
1.50
19%
5.22
14%
7.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.17
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
Total xG
3.07
0.89
Al Riyadh xG
1.50
67%
Home win
5.22
19%
Draw
7.05
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
41%
2.44
11%
8.80
Win to Nil
27%
3.66
2%
62.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 10.1 | 9.0 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.0 | 9.8 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.0 | 7.1 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 4.3 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Riyadh?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Riyadh expected to score?
The model projects 2.17 expected goals for Al-Hilal Saudi FC and 0.89 for Al Riyadh, a combined total of 3.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Riyadh?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 67%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's recent record stands at 4W 1D 0L from 5 games, a 2.60 PPG return, with W-D-W-W-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al Riyadh, meanwhile, have gone 1W 1D 3L across 5 games — 0.80 PPG, with W-D-L-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Al Riyadh, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Hilal Saudi FC by 1.80 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al Riyadh heading into this one.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Hilal Saudi FC are averaging 2.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Al Riyadh are on 0.60 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Hilal Saudi FC have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Al Riyadh in 20%.
Defensively: Al-Hilal Saudi FC have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 5 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Early Season
Al Riyadh
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Riyadh in coming into this match?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 4W 1D 0L in their last 5 games (2.60 PPG), while Al Riyadh have gone 1W 1D 3L in their last 5 (0.80 PPG).
Have Al-Hilal Saudi FC or Al Riyadh been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Al Riyadh in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 25 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 Sep 2023, when Al-Hilal Saudi FC won 6-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's record when hosting Al Riyadh specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
2
Draws
0
Al Riyadh
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Riyadh?
From 6 meetings on record, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won 4, Al Riyadh have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Riyadh last play each other?
They last met on 25 January 2026, when Al Riyadh 1-1 Al-Hilal Saudi FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Riyadh?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Hilal Saudi FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Al Riyadh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Hilal Saudi FC 60%, Al Riyadh 20% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Al-Hilal Saudi FC and 60% for Al Riyadh. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 60% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Hilal Saudi FC keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Al Riyadh in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Hilal Saudi FC home games / Al Riyadh away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Hilal Saudi FC play Al Riyadh?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's recent matches and 20% of Al Riyadh's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Riyadh usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's matches and 60% of Al Riyadh's.
Do Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Riyadh tend to score early?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Al Riyadh in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al-Hilal Saudi FC run riot with a 6-1 hammering of Al Riyadh.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Hilal Saudi FC beat Al Riyadh 6-1 at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 6, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.17 xG and Al Riyadh 0.89 xG, a combined 3.07. The scoreboard read 6-1 for 7 actual goals. Al-Hilal Saudi FC beat their projection by 3.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.17 / defence 0.83 against Al Riyadh attack 0.77 / defence 1.36, drawn from 35/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Hilal Saudi FC 67% | Draw 19% | Al Riyadh 14%, with Al-Hilal Saudi FC to win its most likely call at 67%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Hilal Saudi FC 60%, Al Riyadh 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Al Riyadh's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 20% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Hilal Saudi FC arrived the stronger side — 2.60 PPG against 0.80. That form edge translated into the three points. Al-Hilal Saudi FC scored 6 against a 2.80 average — above their attacking norm. Al Riyadh shipped 6 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.