Al-Hilal Saudi FC 3-0 Al-Nassr – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Nassr fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 15 sees Al-Nassr travel to King Fahd International Stadium to take on Al-Hilal Saudi FC. The game is scheduled for Friday 1 December 2023, 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 9W 1D 0L from 10 outings — a 2.80 PPG return. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 3.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's home record at King Fahd International Stadium: 8W 2D 0L from 10 Pro League appearances (2.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at King Fahd International Stadium.
Al-Nassr — All Games: 9W 1D 0L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 2.80 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.90 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Al-Nassr, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Al-Nassr have gone 7W 1D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 2.20 is notably below their overall 2.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 2.80 PPG (Al-Hilal Saudi FC) versus 2.80 (Al-Nassr). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, 1 for Al-Nassr and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 18 Apr 2023, ended 2–0 with Al-Hilal Saudi FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Al-Hilal Saudi FC trading profile (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
Al-Nassr trading profile (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; they lead at the break 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Hilal Saudi FC 43% versus Al-Nassr 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Hilal Saudi FC 52% | Al-Nassr 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.54 xG and Al-Nassr 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.297 / defence 0.626 | Al-Nassr attack 1.407 / defence 0.769. League average goals — home 1.540 / away 1.508. Al-Hilal Saudi FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.297 — their λ of 1.54 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Al-Nassr's defence strength of 0.769 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Al-Nassr have an above-average attack strength of 1.407 — the away xG of 1.33 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Al-Hilal Saudi FC's defence rating of 0.626 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 44 Al-Hilal Saudi FC games / 44 Al-Nassr games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 41% | Draw 27% | Al-Nassr 32%. Fair-value odds: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.44 | Draw 3.70 | Al-Nassr 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.86. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.86 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Hilal Saudi FC as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Hilal Saudi FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.86 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 50% | Al-Nassr 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Nassr | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: King Fahd International Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 1 Dec 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 41% | Draw 27% | Al-Nassr 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 59% | xG Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.54 / Al-Nassr 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.297 / def 0.626 | Al-Nassr attack 1.407 / def 0.769 | league avg home 1.540 / away 1.508 • Poisson stance: Al-Hilal Saudi FC (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Al-Nassr xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Nassr kick off?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Nassr kicked off at 18:00 on Friday 1 December 2023 at King Fahd International Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Nassr?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC 3 - 0 Al-Nassr.
Where is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Nassr being played?
The match is being played at King Fahd International Stadium.
What competition is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Nassr part of?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Nassr is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Nassr?
Our statistical model gives Al-Hilal Saudi FC a 41% chance of winning, Al-Nassr a 32% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Al-Hilal Saudi FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Nassr?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Nassr will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Nassr have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Nassr?
Record (4 meetings): Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2W | Draws 1 | Al-Nassr 1W.
What form are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Nassr in?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 3.30 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Al-Nassr (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 2.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Al-Hilal Saudi FC's attack rating (1.30) and Al-Nassr's defence rating (0.77), the model arrives at 1.54 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Nassr's attack versus Al-Hilal Saudi FC's defence, projects 1.33 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Hilal Saudi FC Win
41%
2.44
27%
3.64
32%
3.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
Total xG
2.86
1.33
Al-Nassr xG
2.44
41%
Home win
3.64
27%
Draw
3.17
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.44
Clean Sheet
27%
3.77
22%
4.65
Win to Nil
11%
9.20
7%
14.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 7.6 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 11.6 | 7.7 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 8.9 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.6 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Nassr?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Nassr expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Al-Hilal Saudi FC and 1.33 for Al-Nassr, a combined total of 2.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Nassr?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al-Hilal Saudi FC come into this having played 44 games, going 29W 10D 5L for 2.20 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-W. The sample for Al-Hilal Saudi FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al-Nassr sit at 2.30 PPG from 44 outings (31W 8D 5L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Al-Nassr is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al-Hilal Saudi FC on 2.20 PPG, Al-Nassr on 2.30. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's home form reads 15W 5D 2L across 22 games on their own ground, a 2.27 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Nassr have taken 2.09 points per game from 22 outings (14W 4D 4L).
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Hilal Saudi FC are averaging 2.20 goals scored and 0.84 conceded per game recently; Al-Nassr are on 2.32 scored and 0.75 conceded. Al-Hilal Saudi FC's scoring rate against Al-Nassr's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: Al-Hilal Saudi FC have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games; Al-Nassr in 45% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 44 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Blended
Al-Nassr
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Nassr in coming into this match?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 29W 10D 5L in their last 44 games (2.20 PPG), while Al-Nassr have gone 31W 8D 5L in their last 44 (2.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Hilal Saudi FC at home or Al-Nassr away?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's home record (2.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Hilal Saudi FC at home: 2.27 PPG; Al-Nassr away: 2.09 PPG.
Have Al-Hilal Saudi FC or Al-Nassr been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Al-Nassr in 45%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 12 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Mar 2022, when Al-Hilal Saudi FC won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's record when hosting Al-Nassr specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
4
Draws
2
Al-Nassr
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Nassr?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won 4, Al-Nassr have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Nassr last play each other?
They last met on 12 May 2026, when Al-Nassr 1-1 Al-Hilal Saudi FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Nassr?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Hilal Saudi FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Al-Nassr are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Hilal Saudi FC 54%, Al-Nassr 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Al-Hilal Saudi FC) and 64% (Al-Nassr). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Hilal Saudi FC keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Al-Nassr in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Hilal Saudi FC home games / Al-Nassr away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Hilal Saudi FC play Al-Nassr?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's recent matches and 41% of Al-Nassr's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Nassr usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's matches and 64% of Al-Nassr's.
Do Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Nassr tend to score early?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Al-Nassr in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al-Hilal Saudi FC run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Al-Nassr.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Hilal Saudi FC beat Al-Nassr 3-0 at King Fahd International Stadium, Regular Season - 15, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.54 xG and Al-Nassr 1.33 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Al-Hilal Saudi FC beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Al-Nassr landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.30 / defence 0.63 against Al-Nassr attack 1.41 / defence 0.77, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Hilal Saudi FC 41% | Draw 27% | Al-Nassr 32%, with Al-Hilal Saudi FC to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Hilal Saudi FC 52%, Al-Nassr 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and duly kept one.
Al-Nassr's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.20 PPG, Al-Nassr 2.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Hilal Saudi FC win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Hilal Saudi FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.18 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.82 average — tighter than their form line. Al-Nassr (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.32 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.68 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.