Al-Hilal Saudi FC 3-2 Al-Ettifaq – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 36% as Al-Hilal Saudi FC take on Al-Ettifaq.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Ettifaq meet at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 5. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 18 September 2021 at 16:30 UTC.
Current Form
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's overall Pro League record this term: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games (2.33 PPG). Last five: W W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.33 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 3 games (67%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Al-Hilal Saudi FC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Ettifaq (all games): 1W 3D 0L across 4 Pro League outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: W D D D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Al-Ettifaq have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Form favours the hosts. Al-Hilal Saudi FC's 2.33 PPG return is 0.83 points per game ahead of Al-Ettifaq's 1.50 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading
Al-Hilal Saudi FC half-time and goal-timing data (3 games): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Al-Ettifaq half-time and goal-timing data (3 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; Over 3.5 in 67%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Hilal Saudi FC 33% and Al-Ettifaq 100% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Hilal Saudi FC 33% | Al-Ettifaq 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.23 xG and Al-Ettifaq 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 0.758 / defence 0.944 | Al-Ettifaq attack 1.039 / defence 1.241. League average goals — home 1.306 / away 1.127. Al-Hilal Saudi FC's attack strength of 0.758 is below the league average — the 1.23 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Al-Ettifaq bring a strong defensive rating of 1.241 — this is suppressing Al-Hilal Saudi FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 3 Al-Hilal Saudi FC games / 4 Al-Ettifaq games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 35% | Draw 36% | Al-Ettifaq 29%. Fair-value odds: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.86 | Draw 2.78 | Al-Ettifaq 3.45. The draw (36%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 36% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 35% and away win at 29% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.33 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 33% | Al-Ettifaq 100% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ettifaq | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Sep 2021, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 35% | Draw 36% | Al-Ettifaq 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 51% | xG Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.23 / Al-Ettifaq 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 0.758 / def 0.944 | Al-Ettifaq attack 1.039 / def 1.241 | league avg home 1.306 / away 1.127 • Poisson stance: Draw (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Al-Ettifaq xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ettifaq kick off?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ettifaq kicked off at 16:30 on Saturday 18 September 2021 at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ettifaq?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC 3 - 2 Al-Ettifaq.
Where is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ettifaq being played?
The match is being played at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium.
What competition is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ettifaq part of?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ettifaq is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our statistical model gives Al-Hilal Saudi FC a 35% chance of winning, Al-Ettifaq a 29% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Ettifaq will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ettifaq have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Ettifaq?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Ettifaq in?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC (all comps): 2W-1D-0L in 3 | 2.33 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.33 | L5 W-W-D. Al-Ettifaq (all comps): 1W-3D-0L in 4 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.75 | L5 W-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's attacking strength (0.76x league average) is weighed against Al-Ettifaq's defensive record (1.24x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.23. Flip it around — Al-Ettifaq's attack (1.04x) against Al-Hilal Saudi FC's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 1.10.
These ratings are built from 3/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.4%), 1-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
35%
2.86
36%
2.78
29%
3.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
0 – 1
10.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
Total xG
2.33
1.10
Al-Ettifaq xG
2.86
35%
Home win
2.78
36%
Draw
3.45
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
33%
3.02
29%
3.41
Win to Nil
12%
8.62
8%
11.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 10.7 | 5.9 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 13.2 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 8.1 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Ettifaq expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Al-Hilal Saudi FC and 1.10 for Al-Ettifaq, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ettifaq?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's recent record stands at 2W 1D 0L from 3 games, a 2.33 PPG return, with W-W-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Ettifaq, meanwhile, have gone 0W 3D 0L across 3 games — 1.00 PPG, with D-D-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Ettifaq, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Hilal Saudi FC by 1.33 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al-Ettifaq heading into this one.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al-Hilal Saudi FC are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.33 conceded per game recently; Al-Ettifaq are on 2.00 scored and 2.00 conceded. Al-Ettifaq's attacking output running into Al-Hilal Saudi FC's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Ettifaq in 100%.
Defensively: Al-Hilal Saudi FC have kept a clean sheet in 67% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 3 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Early Season
Al-Ettifaq
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Ettifaq in coming into this match?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 2W 1D 0L in their last 3 games (2.33 PPG), while Al-Ettifaq have gone 0W 3D 0L in their last 3 (1.00 PPG).
Have Al-Hilal Saudi FC or Al-Ettifaq been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have kept a clean sheet in 67% of their recent games, Al-Ettifaq in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 13 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Hilal Saudi FC won 0-5 on 18 Oct 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 5W 0D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Al-Ettifaq — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
2
Draws
0
Al-Ettifaq
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Ettifaq?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won 8, Al-Ettifaq have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Ettifaq last play each other?
They last met on 13 February 2026, when Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2-0 Al-Ettifaq.
Who has won more matches between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Ettifaq?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al-Hilal Saudi FC see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Al-Ettifaq are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 33% for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, 100% for Al-Ettifaq — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Al-Hilal Saudi FC) and 67% (Al-Ettifaq).
On the defensive side: Al-Hilal Saudi FC keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches; Al-Hilal Saudi FC have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Hilal Saudi FC home games / Al-Ettifaq away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Hilal Saudi FC play Al-Ettifaq?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 33% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's games and 100% of Al-Ettifaq's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ettifaq usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's recent games and 67% of Al-Ettifaq's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Ettifaq tend to score early?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have had a goal before half-time in 33% of their recent matches, Al-Ettifaq in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Hilal Saudi FC edge out Al-Ettifaq 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Hilal Saudi FC beat Al-Ettifaq 3-2 at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 5, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.23 xG and Al-Ettifaq 1.10 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Al-Hilal Saudi FC beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Al-Ettifaq outscored their 1.10 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 0.76 / defence 0.94 against Al-Ettifaq attack 1.04 / defence 1.24, drawn from 3/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Hilal Saudi FC 35% | Draw 36% | Al-Ettifaq 29%, with the draw its most likely call at 36%. The actual Al-Hilal Saudi FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Hilal Saudi FC 33%, Al-Ettifaq 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time, and conceded here.
Al-Ettifaq's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 100% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Hilal Saudi FC arrived the stronger side — 2.33 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Al-Hilal Saudi FC scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Ettifaq shipped 3 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.