Al-Hilal Saudi FC 3-1 Al Baten – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 62% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Baten encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Baten meet at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 9. This fixture gets under way on Friday 16 December 2022 at 16:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have collected 2.30 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 7W 2D 1L. Last five: W L D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.60 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 8W 1D 1L this season (10 games, 2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium.
Al Baten's overall Pro League record this term: 1W 2D 7L from 10 games (0.50 PPG). Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 2.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Al Baten, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Baten's away record: 1W 1D 8L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form favours the hosts. Al-Hilal Saudi FC's 2.30 PPG return is 1.80 points per game ahead of Al Baten's 0.50 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, 0 for Al Baten and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 2 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 21 Jan 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Al-Hilal Saudi FC half-time and goal-timing data (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
Al Baten half-time and goal-timing data (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 53% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Hilal Saudi FC 50% versus Al Baten 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Hilal Saudi FC 50% | Al Baten 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.79 xG and Al Baten 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.155 / defence 0.923 | Al Baten attack 0.723 / defence 1.209. League average goals — home 1.280 / away 1.151. Al Baten bring a strong defensive rating of 1.209 — this is suppressing Al-Hilal Saudi FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 38 Al-Hilal Saudi FC games / 38 Al Baten games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 62% | Draw 23% | Al Baten 16%. Fair-value odds: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.61 | Draw 4.35 | Al Baten 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Al-Hilal Saudi FC (62%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.55 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates corroborate: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 50% | Al Baten 20% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Baten | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 16 Dec 2022, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 62% | Draw 23% | Al Baten 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 45% | xG Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.79 / Al Baten 0.77 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.155 / def 0.923 | Al Baten attack 0.723 / def 1.209 | league avg home 1.280 / away 1.151 • Poisson stance: Al-Hilal Saudi FC (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.79
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
Expected Goals
0.77
Al Baten xG
45%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Baten kick off?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Baten kicked off at 16:30 on Friday 16 December 2022 at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Baten?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC 3 - 1 Al Baten.
Where is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Baten being played?
The match is being played at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium.
What competition is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Baten part of?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Baten is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Baten?
Our statistical model gives Al-Hilal Saudi FC a 62% chance of winning, Al Baten a 16% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Al-Hilal Saudi FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Baten?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Baten will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Baten have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Baten?
Record (2 meetings): Al-Hilal Saudi FC 0W | Draws 2 | Al Baten 0W.
What form are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Baten in?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-L-D-D-W. Al Baten (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Al-Hilal Saudi FC's attack at 1.16x the league average against Al Baten's defence at 1.21x — combine the two and it projects 1.79 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al Baten's attack (0.72x) against Al-Hilal Saudi FC's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 0.77.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 12.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (12.4%), 1-1 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Hilal Saudi FC Win
62%
1.62
23%
4.41
16%
6.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.4%
Home win
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.79
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
Total xG
2.55
0.77
Al Baten xG
1.62
62%
Home win
4.41
23%
Draw
6.40
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.24
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
46%
2.16
17%
5.97
Win to Nil
29%
3.50
3%
38.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 6.0 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 13.9 | 10.7 | 4.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.4 | 9.5 | 3.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.4 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.3 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Baten?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Baten expected to score?
The model projects 1.79 expected goals for Al-Hilal Saudi FC and 0.77 for Al Baten, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Baten?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's recent record stands at 25W 9D 4L from 38 games, a 2.21 PPG return, with W-L-D-D-W in the last five. The sample for Al-Hilal Saudi FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Baten, meanwhile, have gone 8W 10D 20L across 38 games — 0.89 PPG, with L-L-D-L-L in their last five. The sample for Al Baten is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Hilal Saudi FC by 1.32 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al Baten heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have managed 13W 3D 3L from 19 games — 2.21 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al Baten's away record stands at 2W 4D 13L across 19 trips, a 0.53 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Hilal Saudi FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al-Hilal Saudi FC are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 0.87 conceded per game recently; Al Baten are on 0.89 scored and 1.68 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Hilal Saudi FC have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Blended
Al Baten
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Baten in coming into this match?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 25W 9D 4L in their last 38 games (2.21 PPG), while Al Baten have gone 8W 10D 20L in their last 38 (0.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Hilal Saudi FC at home or Al Baten away?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's home record (2.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Hilal Saudi FC at home: 2.21 PPG; Al Baten away: 0.53 PPG.
Have Al-Hilal Saudi FC or Al Baten been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, Al Baten in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Al Baten — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
2
Draws
1
Al Baten
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Baten?
From 4 meetings on record, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won 1, Al Baten have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Baten last play each other?
They last met on 14 April 2023, when Al Baten 1-0 Al-Hilal Saudi FC.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al-Hilal Saudi FC see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Al Baten see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Hilal Saudi FC 47%, Al Baten 32% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Al-Hilal Saudi FC) and 42% (Al Baten).
On the defensive side: Al-Hilal Saudi FC keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Al Baten in 68%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Hilal Saudi FC home games / Al Baten away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Hilal Saudi FC play Al Baten?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's recent matches and 32% of Al Baten's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Baten usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's recent games and 42% of Al Baten's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Al Baten.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Hilal Saudi FC beat Al Baten 3-1 at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 9, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.79 xG and Al Baten 0.77 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Al-Hilal Saudi FC beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.16 / defence 0.92 against Al Baten attack 0.72 / defence 1.21, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Hilal Saudi FC 62% | Draw 23% | Al Baten 16%, with Al-Hilal Saudi FC to win its most likely call at 62%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Hilal Saudi FC 50%, Al Baten 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.
Al Baten's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Hilal Saudi FC arrived the stronger side — 2.21 PPG against 0.89. That form edge translated into the three points. Al-Hilal Saudi FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm. Al Baten (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.63 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.