Al-Hazm 1-1 Al Riyadh – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Al Riyadh at 42% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Al-Hazm face Al Riyadh.

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Analysis

Al Riyadh make the trip to Ar-Rass Stadium to face Al-Hazm in Pro League (matchday 32). The match kicks off on Saturday 18 May 2024 at 18:20 UK time.

Form

Al-Hazm (all games): 1W 3D 6L across their last 10 — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L W D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.

Al-Hazm's home record over their last 10 home games: 1W 3D 6L (0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game.

Al Riyadh's record over their last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L (1.00 PPG). Last five: L L W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Al Riyadh's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across their last 10 road games (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

A near-identical PPG reading — 0.60 for Al-Hazm, 1.00 for Al Riyadh — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

H2H History

Neither side has dominated the 1 H2H match in our data: 0 wins for Al-Hazm, 0 for Al Riyadh and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 0.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 30 Nov 2023, ended Al-Hazm 0–0 Al Riyadh — a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

Trading & In-Play

Al-Hazm — key trading statistics (last 31 games, 15 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%; they fail to score in 36% of games.

Al Riyadh — key trading statistics (last 31 games, 15 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 93% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 5 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 32%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Hazm 58% versus Al Riyadh 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Hazm 55% | Al Riyadh 52%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Hazm 1.10 xG and Al Riyadh 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Hazm attack 0.667 / defence 1.384 | Al Riyadh attack 0.737 / defence 1.160. League average goals — home 1.421 / away 1.380. Al-Hazm's attack rating of 0.667 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.10. Al Riyadh's attack rating of 0.737 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.41. Al-Hazm's defence rating of 1.384 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Al Riyadh's projected output up. Data: built from Al-Hazm's last 31 games and Al Riyadh's last 31.

Result probabilities: Al-Hazm 27% | Draw 31% | Al Riyadh 42%. Fair-value odds: Al-Hazm 3.68 | Draw 3.23 | Al Riyadh 2.39. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Al Riyadh are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al Riyadh if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 2.51 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 54% — low conviction — though recent form (Al-Hazm's last 10 home games and Al Riyadh's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game points the other way.

Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Al-Hazm 40% (last 10 home games) | Al Riyadh 60% (last 10 away games).

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