Al-Hazm 1-4 Al Khaleej Saihat – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Khaleej Saihat at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Hazm vs Al Khaleej Saihat fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 8 as Al-Hazm welcome Al Khaleej Saihat to Al-Hazem Club Stadium. Kick-off is set for Thursday 6 November 2025 at 14:55 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Hazm have gone 1W 3D 3L from 7 outings — a 0.86 PPG return. Last five: D L W L D. They are averaging 0.71 goals per game and conceding 1.29 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 7 outings provides some defensive foundation. Al-Hazm have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Al-Hazem Club Stadium, Al-Hazm have gone 0W 1D 2L this season (3 games, 0.33 PPG). Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.33 lags behind their overall 0.86 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Al-Hazem Club Stadium this season.
Al Khaleej Saihat — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L W D D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Al Khaleej Saihat have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al Khaleej Saihat's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Al Khaleej Saihat are 0.54 PPG ahead (1.40 vs 0.86), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Al-Hazm, 0 for Al Khaleej Saihat and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Feb 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Al-Hazm in-play and half-time data (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games; they fail to score in 57% of games.
Al Khaleej Saihat in-play and half-time data (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures; they lead at the break 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games; Over 3.5 in 43%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Hazm 43% versus Al Khaleej Saihat 71%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Hazm 29% | Al Khaleej Saihat 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Hazm 0.83 xG and Al Khaleej Saihat 1.57 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Hazm attack 0.547 / defence 1.045 | Al Khaleej Saihat attack 1.032 / defence 1.013. League average goals — home 1.495 / away 1.462. Al-Hazm's attack strength of 0.547 is below the league average — the 0.83 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 7 Al-Hazm games / 41 Al Khaleej Saihat games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Hazm 19% | Draw 26% | Al Khaleej Saihat 54%. Fair-value odds: Al-Hazm 5.26 | Draw 3.85 | Al Khaleej Saihat 1.85. Al Khaleej Saihat hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al Khaleej Saihat at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Khaleej Saihat offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.40 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al-Hazm 0% | Al Khaleej Saihat 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Hazm vs Al Khaleej Saihat | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Al-Hazem Club Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 6 Nov 2025, 14:55 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Hazm 19% | Draw 26% | Al Khaleej Saihat 54% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 45% | xG Al-Hazm 0.83 / Al Khaleej Saihat 1.57 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Hazm attack 0.547 / def 1.045 | Al Khaleej Saihat attack 1.032 / def 1.013 | league avg home 1.495 / away 1.462 • Poisson stance: Al Khaleej Saihat (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.83
Al-Hazm xG
Expected Goals
1.57
Al Khaleej Saihat xG
45%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Hazm vs Al Khaleej Saihat kick off?
Al-Hazm vs Al Khaleej Saihat kicked off at 14:55 on Thursday 6 November 2025 at Al-Hazem Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Hazm vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Al-Hazm 1 - 4 Al Khaleej Saihat.
Where is Al-Hazm vs Al Khaleej Saihat being played?
The match is being played at Al-Hazem Club Stadium.
What competition is Al-Hazm vs Al Khaleej Saihat part of?
Al-Hazm vs Al Khaleej Saihat is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Hazm vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Our statistical model gives Al-Hazm a 19% chance of winning, Al Khaleej Saihat a 54% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Al Khaleej Saihat the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Hazm vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Al-Hazm and Al Khaleej Saihat will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Hazm vs Al Khaleej Saihat have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hazm and Al Khaleej Saihat?
Record (2 meetings): Al-Hazm 0W | Draws 2 | Al Khaleej Saihat 0W.
What form are Al-Hazm and Al Khaleej Saihat in?
Al-Hazm (all comps): 1W-3D-3L in 7 | 0.86 PPG | GF 0.71 / GA 1.29 | L5 D-L-W-L-D. Al Khaleej Saihat (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Al-Hazm's attack rating (0.55) and Al Khaleej Saihat's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 0.83 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al Khaleej Saihat's attack versus Al-Hazm's defence, projects 1.57 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 7/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 0-1 (12.7%), 0-2 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Khaleej Saihat Win
19%
5.22
26%
3.80
54%
1.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
0 – 2
11.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.83
Al-Hazm xG
Total xG
2.40
1.57
Al Khaleej Saihat xG
5.22
19%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
1.84
54%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
21%
4.83
44%
2.29
Win to Nil
4%
25.20
24%
4.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 14.2 | 11.2 | 5.9 | 2.3 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 11.8 | 9.3 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 3.1 | 4.9 | 3.8 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Hazm vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Al-Hazm and Al Khaleej Saihat expected to score?
The model projects 0.83 expected goals for Al-Hazm and 1.57 for Al Khaleej Saihat, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Hazm vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al-Hazm come into this having played 7 games, going 1W 3D 3L for 0.86 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-L-D. It's still early in the season for Al-Hazm, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Al Khaleej Saihat sit at 1.57 PPG from 7 outings (3W 2D 2L), a run that reads L-L-W-D-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Al Khaleej Saihat, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al Khaleej Saihat carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.71 PPG clear of Al-Hazm — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Al-Hazm's home form reads 0W 1D 2L across 3 games on their own ground, a 0.33 PPG return. That actually lags their 0.86 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Away from home, Al Khaleej Saihat have taken 1.33 points per game from 3 outings (1W 1D 1L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Khaleej Saihat come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Hazm are averaging 0.71 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Al Khaleej Saihat are on 2.43 scored and 1.43 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Khaleej Saihat in 71%.
Last 7 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Hazm
Early Season
Al Khaleej Saihat
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Hazm and Al Khaleej Saihat in coming into this match?
Al-Hazm have gone 1W 3D 3L in their last 7 games (0.86 PPG), while Al Khaleej Saihat have gone 3W 2D 2L in their last 7 (1.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Hazm at home or Al Khaleej Saihat away?
Al Khaleej Saihat's away record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Hazm at home: 0.33 PPG; Al Khaleej Saihat away: 1.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 6 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Al Khaleej Saihat have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Nov 2025, when Al Khaleej Saihat won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Hazm's record when hosting Al Khaleej Saihat specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Al-Hazm
2
Draws
2
Al Khaleej Saihat
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hazm and Al Khaleej Saihat?
From 4 meetings on record, Al-Hazm have won 0, Al Khaleej Saihat have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Hazm and Al Khaleej Saihat last play each other?
They last met on 6 March 2026, when Al Khaleej Saihat 2-1 Al-Hazm.
Who has won more matches between Al-Hazm and Al Khaleej Saihat?
Al Khaleej Saihat have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Hazm see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Al Khaleej Saihat are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Hazm 0%, Al Khaleej Saihat 100% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 0% for Al-Hazm and 67% for Al Khaleej Saihat.
On the defensive side: Al-Hazm keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Al-Hazm have failed to score in 100% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Hazm home games / Al Khaleej Saihat away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Hazm play Al Khaleej Saihat?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Al-Hazm's recent matches and 100% of Al Khaleej Saihat's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Hazm vs Al Khaleej Saihat usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Al-Hazm's recent games and 67% of Al Khaleej Saihat's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Hazm and Al Khaleej Saihat tend to score early?
Al-Hazm have had a goal before half-time in 33% of their recent matches, Al Khaleej Saihat in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al Khaleej Saihat run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Al-Hazm.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Khaleej Saihat beat Al-Hazm 1-4 at Al-Hazem Club Stadium, Regular Season - 8, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Hazm 0.83 xG and Al Khaleej Saihat 1.57 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Al Khaleej Saihat outscored their 1.57 projection by 2.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Hazm attack 0.55 / defence 1.04 against Al Khaleej Saihat attack 1.03 / defence 1.01, drawn from 7/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Hazm 19% | Draw 26% | Al Khaleej Saihat 54%, with Al Khaleej Saihat to win its most likely call at 54%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Hazm 29%, Al Khaleej Saihat 71%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Hazm's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Al Khaleej Saihat's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Khaleej Saihat arrived the stronger side — 1.57 PPG against 0.86. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Al-Hazm (home/away splits) scored 1 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al Khaleej Saihat (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.