Al-Fayha 1-1 NEOM – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Fayha at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Fayha vs NEOM fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al-Fayha host NEOM at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday 25 February 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Al-Fayha — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: W L W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fayha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al-Fayha have posted 4W 4D 2L at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium.
Across all Pro League games this season, NEOM have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W D W L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for NEOM, so this record blends games from this season and last.
NEOM away from home this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 away games — 1.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.80 exceeds their overall 1.10 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Al-Fayha 1.40 PPG, NEOM 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Trading Patterns
Al-Fayha in-play and half-time data (22 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
NEOM in-play and half-time data (22 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Fayha 54% versus NEOM 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fayha 59% | NEOM 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fayha 1.19 xG and NEOM 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fayha attack 0.935 / defence 0.911 | NEOM attack 0.798 / defence 0.855. League average goals — home 1.492 / away 1.369. Data: 56 Al-Fayha games / 22 NEOM games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Fayha 40% | Draw 31% | NEOM 30%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fayha 2.50 | Draw 3.23 | NEOM 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Fayha at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Fayha offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.19 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 37% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates are neutral: Al-Fayha 40% | NEOM 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Fayha vs NEOM | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: King Abdullah Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 25 Feb 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Fayha 40% | Draw 31% | NEOM 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 45% | xG Al-Fayha 1.19 / NEOM 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Fayha attack 0.935 / def 0.911 | NEOM attack 0.798 / def 0.855 | league avg home 1.492 / away 1.369 • Poisson stance: Al-Fayha (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Al-Fayha xG
Expected Goals
0.99
NEOM xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Fayha vs NEOM kick off?
Al-Fayha vs NEOM kicked off at 19:00 on Wednesday 25 February 2026 at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Fayha vs NEOM?
Al-Fayha 1 - 1 NEOM.
Where is Al-Fayha vs NEOM being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Al-Fayha vs NEOM part of?
Al-Fayha vs NEOM is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Fayha vs NEOM?
Our statistical model gives Al-Fayha a 40% chance of winning, NEOM a 30% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Al-Fayha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Fayha vs NEOM?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Al-Fayha and NEOM will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Fayha vs NEOM have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fayha and NEOM?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al-Fayha and NEOM in?
Al-Fayha (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-W-L-W. NEOM (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Al-Fayha's attack at 0.94x the league average against NEOM's defence at 0.85x — combine the two and it projects 1.19 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, NEOM's attack versus Al-Fayha's defence, projects 0.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 56/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.0%), 1-0 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Fayha Win
40%
2.52
31%
3.28
30%
3.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
11.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Al-Fayha xG
Total xG
2.19
0.99
NEOM xG
2.52
40%
Home win
3.28
31%
Draw
3.36
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.24
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
37%
2.70
30%
3.29
Win to Nil
15%
6.81
9%
11.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.2 | 11.2 | 5.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.4 | 13.3 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 7.9 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Fayha vs NEOM?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Al-Fayha and NEOM expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Al-Fayha and 0.99 for NEOM, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Fayha vs NEOM?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al-Fayha come into this having played 22 games, going 7W 5D 10L for 1.18 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-L-W. The sample for Al-Fayha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, NEOM sit at 1.41 PPG from 22 outings (9W 4D 9L), a run that reads W-D-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for NEOM is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al-Fayha on 1.18 PPG, NEOM on 1.41. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Al-Fayha's home form reads 4W 4D 2L across 10 games on their own ground, a 1.60 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.18 PPG overall — Al-Fayha are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, NEOM have taken 1.80 points per game from 10 outings (5W 3D 2L).
The Goals Picture
Al-Fayha are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.68 conceded per game recently; NEOM are on 1.23 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Last 22 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Fayha
Blended
NEOM
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Fayha and NEOM in coming into this match?
Al-Fayha have gone 7W 5D 10L in their last 22 games (1.18 PPG), while NEOM have gone 9W 4D 9L in their last 22 (1.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Fayha at home or NEOM away?
NEOM's away record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Fayha at home: 1.60 PPG; NEOM away: 1.80 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Fayha and NEOM runs to 3 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to February 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 14 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
NEOM go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Last 3 Meetings
0
Al-Fayha
1
Draws
2
NEOM
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fayha and NEOM?
From 3 meetings on record, Al-Fayha have won 0, NEOM have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Fayha and NEOM last play each other?
They last met on 14 August 2026, when NEOM 2-1 Al-Fayha.
Who has won more matches between Al-Fayha and NEOM?
NEOM have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Fayha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
NEOM see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Fayha 40%, NEOM 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Al-Fayha) and 50% (NEOM).
On the defensive side: Al-Fayha keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Al-Fayha have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Fayha home games / NEOM away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Fayha play NEOM?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 40% of Al-Fayha's games and 70% of NEOM's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Fayha vs NEOM usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Al-Fayha's recent games and 50% of NEOM's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Fayha and NEOM tend to score early?
Al-Fayha have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, NEOM in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Fayha and NEOM share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Fayha and NEOM finished level at 1-1 at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Fayha 1.19 xG and NEOM 0.99 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Fayha attack 0.94 / defence 0.91 against NEOM attack 0.80 / defence 0.85, drawn from 56/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Fayha 40% | Draw 31% | NEOM 30%, with Al-Fayha to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Fayha 59%, NEOM 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Fayha's trading profile (22 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
NEOM's trading profile (22 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Fayha 1.18 PPG, NEOM 1.41 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.