Al-Fayha 2-0 Al Wehda Club – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Fayha at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Fayha vs Al Wehda Club fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al-Fayha host Al Wehda Club at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 4 February 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Al-Fayha — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: W W D W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fayha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium, Al-Fayha have gone 2W 3D 5L this season (10 games, 0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al Wehda Club have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D W L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Al Wehda Club, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Wehda Club's away record: 0W 1D 6L from 7 road trips in Pro League this season (0.14 PPG). Away from home they average 0.29 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 14% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.14 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Al-Fayha at 1.30 PPG versus Al Wehda Club's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Trading Patterns
Al-Fayha in-play and half-time data (14 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 83% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Al Wehda Club in-play and half-time data (14 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 17% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 57% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Fayha 57% versus Al Wehda Club 21%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fayha 64% | Al Wehda Club 21%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fayha 1.47 xG and Al Wehda Club 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fayha attack 0.915 / defence 1.193 | Al Wehda Club attack 0.726 / defence 1.148. League average goals — home 1.399 / away 1.128. Data: 44 Al-Fayha games / 14 Al Wehda Club games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Fayha 49% | Draw 26% | Al Wehda Club 25%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fayha 2.04 | Draw 3.85 | Al Wehda Club 4.00. Al-Fayha hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Fayha are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Fayha offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.45 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates corroborate: Al-Fayha 40% | Al Wehda Club 14% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Fayha vs Al Wehda Club | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Feb 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Fayha 49% | Draw 26% | Al Wehda Club 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 48% | xG Al-Fayha 1.47 / Al Wehda Club 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Fayha attack 0.915 / def 1.193 | Al Wehda Club attack 0.726 / def 1.148 | league avg home 1.399 / away 1.128 • Poisson stance: Al-Fayha (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Al-Fayha xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Al Wehda Club xG
48%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Fayha vs Al Wehda Club kick off?
Al-Fayha vs Al Wehda Club kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 4 February 2023 at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Fayha vs Al Wehda Club?
Al-Fayha 2 - 0 Al Wehda Club.
Where is Al-Fayha vs Al Wehda Club being played?
The match is being played at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Al-Fayha vs Al Wehda Club part of?
Al-Fayha vs Al Wehda Club is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Fayha vs Al Wehda Club?
Our statistical model gives Al-Fayha a 49% chance of winning, Al Wehda Club a 25% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Al-Fayha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Fayha vs Al Wehda Club?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Al-Fayha and Al Wehda Club will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Fayha vs Al Wehda Club have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fayha and Al Wehda Club?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al-Fayha and Al Wehda Club in?
Al-Fayha (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-W-D-W-L. Al Wehda Club (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Al-Fayha's attacking strength (0.92x league average) is weighed against Al Wehda Club's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.47. The same calculation in reverse, Al Wehda Club's attack versus Al-Fayha's defence, projects 0.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.1%), 0-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Fayha Win
49%
2.06
26%
3.80
25%
3.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
2 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Al-Fayha xG
Total xG
2.45
0.98
Al Wehda Club xG
2.06
49%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
3.99
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
38%
2.65
23%
4.35
Win to Nil
18%
5.46
6%
17.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 8.5 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 12.4 | 6.1 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.1 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 4.5 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Fayha vs Al Wehda Club?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Al-Fayha and Al Wehda Club expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Al-Fayha and 0.98 for Al Wehda Club, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Fayha vs Al Wehda Club?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al-Fayha come into this having played 14 games, going 4W 3D 7L for 1.07 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-W-L. The sample for Al-Fayha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al Wehda Club sit at 1.07 PPG from 14 outings (4W 3D 7L), a run that reads D-W-L-W-L across their last five. The sample for Al Wehda Club is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al-Fayha on 1.07 PPG, Al Wehda Club on 1.07. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Al-Fayha's home form reads 1W 2D 3L across 6 games on their own ground, a 0.83 PPG return.
Away from home, Al Wehda Club have taken 0.17 points per game from 6 outings (0W 1D 5L). That's a step down from their 1.07 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Al Wehda Club's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Fayha come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al-Fayha are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.79 conceded per game recently; Al Wehda Club are on 0.64 scored and 1.07 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Wehda Club in 21%.
Defensively: Al Wehda Club in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 14 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Fayha
Blended
Al Wehda Club
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Fayha and Al Wehda Club in coming into this match?
Al-Fayha have gone 4W 3D 7L in their last 14 games (1.07 PPG), while Al Wehda Club have gone 4W 3D 7L in their last 14 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Fayha at home or Al Wehda Club away?
Al-Fayha's home record (0.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Fayha at home: 0.83 PPG; Al Wehda Club away: 0.17 PPG.
Have Al-Fayha or Al Wehda Club been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Fayha have kept a clean sheet in 7% of their recent games, Al Wehda Club in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Fayha and Al Wehda Club runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to February 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 March 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Al-Fayha's record when hosting Al Wehda Club specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Al-Fayha
3
Draws
1
Al Wehda Club
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fayha and Al Wehda Club?
From 6 meetings on record, Al-Fayha have won 2, Al Wehda Club have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Al-Fayha and Al Wehda Club last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2025, when Al-Fayha 0-0 Al Wehda Club.
Who has won more matches between Al-Fayha and Al Wehda Club?
Al-Fayha have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Fayha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Al Wehda Club see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Fayha 67%, Al Wehda Club 17% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Al-Fayha) and 33% (Al Wehda Club).
On the defensive side: Al-Fayha have failed to score in 33% of games; Al Wehda Club in 83%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Fayha home games / Al Wehda Club away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Fayha play Al Wehda Club?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Al-Fayha's recent matches and 17% of Al Wehda Club's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Fayha vs Al Wehda Club usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Al-Fayha's recent games and 33% of Al Wehda Club's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Fayha and Al Wehda Club tend to score early?
Al-Fayha have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Al Wehda Club in 33% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Fayha cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Al Wehda Club.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Fayha beat Al Wehda Club 2-0 at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 15, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Fayha 1.47 xG and Al Wehda Club 0.98 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Al Wehda Club landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Fayha attack 0.92 / defence 1.19 against Al Wehda Club attack 0.73 / defence 1.15, drawn from 44/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Fayha 49% | Draw 26% | Al Wehda Club 25%, with Al-Fayha to win its most likely call at 49%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Fayha 64%, Al Wehda Club 21%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 39%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Fayha's trading profile (14 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Al Wehda Club's trading profile (14 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 21% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 57% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Fayha 1.07 PPG, Al Wehda Club 1.07 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Fayha win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Fayha (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.