Al-Fayha 2-0 Al Taee – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Fayha at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Fayha vs Al Taee fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Al Taee make the trip to Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium to face Al-Fayha in Pro League, Regular Season - 18. The match kicks off on Saturday 22 January 2022 at 11:35 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al-Fayha have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 1W 6D 3L. Last five: D D D L D. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fayha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Fayha's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 0L across 7 games at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium this term (2.14 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.86 goals scored and 0.14 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 7 home games (86%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 14% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.14 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Al-Fayha are significantly better at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Al Taee's overall Pro League record this term: 4W 0D 6L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: W W W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Al Taee, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Taee's away record: 2W 1D 5L from 8 road trips in Pro League this season (0.88 PPG). Away from home they average 0.38 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 12% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.90 PPG for Al-Fayha against 1.20 for Al Taee. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Both sides have a strong clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — Al-Fayha have seen both teams score in just 14% of their games, Al Taee in only 12%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from both squads' form records.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Al-Fayha, 0 for Al Taee and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Aug 2021, ended 3–1 with Al-Fayha winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Al-Fayha goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (17 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 14% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time; they fail to score in 35% of games.
Al Taee goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (17 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 14% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Fayha 41% versus Al Taee 41%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Al-Fayha 18% | Al Taee 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fayha 0.92 xG and Al Taee 0.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fayha attack 0.706 / defence 0.754 | Al Taee attack 0.623 / defence 1.202. League average goals — home 1.087 / away 1.164. Al-Fayha's attack strength of 0.706 is below the league average — the 0.92 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Al Taee bring a strong defensive rating of 1.202 — this is suppressing Al-Fayha's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Al-Fayha's defence rating of 0.754 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 17 Al-Fayha games / 17 Al Taee games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Fayha 42% | Draw 38% | Al Taee 20%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fayha 2.38 | Draw 2.63 | Al Taee 5.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 38% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 18% | BTTS probability 26% | Total xG 1.47. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 82% probability — total xG of 1.47 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 74% — Al Taee's lower xG of 0.55 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 26%.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Fayha as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 38% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Fayha if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.47 combined xG gives a 18% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.4 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 26%. Form rates corroborate: Al-Fayha 14% | Al Taee 12% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Fayha vs Al Taee | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Jan 2022, 11:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Fayha 42% | Draw 38% | Al Taee 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 18% | BTTS 26% | xG Al-Fayha 0.92 / Al Taee 0.55 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Fayha attack 0.706 / def 0.754 | Al Taee attack 0.623 / def 1.202 | league avg home 1.087 / away 1.164 • Poisson stance: Al-Fayha (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.92
Al-Fayha xG
Expected Goals
0.55
Al Taee xG
26%
BTTS
44%
Over 1.5
18%
Over 2.5
6%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Fayha vs Al Taee kick off?
Al-Fayha vs Al Taee kicked off at 11:35 on Saturday 22 January 2022 at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Fayha vs Al Taee?
Al-Fayha 2 - 0 Al Taee.
Where is Al-Fayha vs Al Taee being played?
The match is being played at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Al-Fayha vs Al Taee part of?
Al-Fayha vs Al Taee is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Fayha vs Al Taee?
Our statistical model gives Al-Fayha a 42% chance of winning, Al Taee a 20% chance, and a 38% chance of a draw — making Al-Fayha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Fayha vs Al Taee?
Our model estimates a 26% probability that both Al-Fayha and Al Taee will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Fayha vs Al Taee have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 18%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fayha and Al Taee?
Record (1 meetings): Al-Fayha 1W | Draws 0 | Al Taee 0W.
What form are Al-Fayha and Al Taee in?
Al-Fayha (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-D-D-L-D. Al Taee (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Al-Fayha's attack rating (0.71) and Al Taee's defence rating (1.20), the model arrives at 0.92 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al Taee's attack (0.62x) against Al-Fayha's defence (0.75x) — and the away total comes out at 0.55.
These ratings are built from 17/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 24.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (19.7%), 1-1 (13.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 57% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Fayha Win
42%
2.38
38%
2.64
20%
4.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
23.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
21.2%
Home win
0 – 1
12.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.92
Al-Fayha xG
Total xG
1.47
0.55
Al Taee xG
2.38
42%
Home win
2.64
38%
Draw
4.99
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
43%
Over 1.5
2.33
57%
Under 1.5
1.75
18%
Over 2.5
5.56
82%
Under 2.5
1.22
6%
Over 3.5
16.67
94%
Under 3.5
1.06
2%
Over 4.5
50.00
98%
Under 4.5
1.02
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
26%
BTTS Yes
3.81
74%
BTTS No
1.36
Clean Sheet
58%
1.73
40%
2.51
Win to Nil
24%
4.11
8%
12.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 23.0 | 12.6 | 3.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 21.2 | 11.6 | 3.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 9.8 | 5.4 | 1.5 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 3 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Fayha vs Al Taee?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 24.5%.
How many goals are Al-Fayha and Al Taee expected to score?
The model projects 0.92 expected goals for Al-Fayha and 0.55 for Al Taee, a combined total of 1.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Fayha vs Al Taee?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 17 outings, Al-Fayha have picked up 1.29 PPG on a 5W 7D 5L record — D-D-D-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Al-Fayha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Taee's form line: 6W 1D 10L from 17 games, 1.12 PPG, last five W-W-W-L-L. The sample for Al Taee is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.29 PPG for Al-Fayha against 1.12 for Al Taee. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Al-Fayha have posted 2.14 PPG from 7 outings (4W 3D 0L). That's noticeably better than their 1.29 PPG overall — Al-Fayha are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Al Taee have gone 2W 1D 4L from 7 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Fayha come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al-Fayha are averaging 0.82 goals scored and 0.82 conceded per game recently; Al Taee are on 0.94 scored and 1.59 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Fayha have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 17 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Fayha
Blended
Al Taee
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Fayha and Al Taee in coming into this match?
Al-Fayha have gone 5W 7D 5L in their last 17 games (1.29 PPG), while Al Taee have gone 6W 1D 10L in their last 17 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Fayha at home or Al Taee away?
Al-Fayha's home record (2.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Fayha at home: 2.14 PPG; Al Taee away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Al-Fayha or Al Taee been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Fayha have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Al Taee in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Fayha have gone 3W 0D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Al Taee — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Al-Fayha
1
Draws
1
Al Taee
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fayha and Al Taee?
From 6 meetings on record, Al-Fayha have won 4, Al Taee have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Fayha and Al Taee last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2024, when Al-Fayha 1-0 Al Taee.
Who has won more matches between Al-Fayha and Al Taee?
Al-Fayha have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al-Fayha see a goal before the break in 43% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Al Taee see a goal before the break in 43% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 14% (Al-Fayha) and 14% (Al Taee) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 0% for Al-Fayha and 43% for Al Taee.
On the defensive side: Al-Fayha keep a clean sheet in 86% of their matches; Al-Fayha have failed to score in 29% of games; Al Taee in 71%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Fayha home games / Al Taee away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Fayha play Al Taee?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 14% of Al-Fayha's recent matches and 14% of Al Taee's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Fayha vs Al Taee usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Al-Fayha's recent games and 43% of Al Taee's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Al-Fayha cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Al Taee.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Fayha beat Al Taee 2-0 at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 18, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Fayha 0.92 xG and Al Taee 0.55 xG, a combined 1.47. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Al-Fayha beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Fayha attack 0.71 / defence 0.75 against Al Taee attack 0.62 / defence 1.20, drawn from 17/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Fayha 42% | Draw 38% | Al Taee 20%, with Al-Fayha to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 18%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 44% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 26% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Fayha 18%, Al Taee 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Fayha's trading profile (17 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one.
Al Taee's trading profile (17 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 47% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Fayha 1.29 PPG, Al Taee 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Fayha win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Fayha (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.86 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.