Al-Fayha 0-2 Al-Hilal Saudi FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Fayha vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al-Fayha and Al-Hilal Saudi FC meet at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 17. This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 4 April 2023 at 20:00 UTC.
Form
Al-Fayha (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D D W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fayha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al-Fayha have posted 3W 3D 4L at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's overall Pro League record this term: 6W 3D 1L from 10 games (2.10 PPG). Last five: D L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have posted 6W 4D 0L from 10 away outings — 2.20 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Al-Hilal Saudi FC are 0.50 PPG clear of Al-Fayha in recent Pro League fixtures (2.10 vs 1.60). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Al-Fayha lead 1W to 1W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 3 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 31 Aug 2022, ended 0–2 with Al-Hilal Saudi FC winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Al-Fayha — key trading statistics (50 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 21% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC — key trading statistics (50 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Fayha 44% versus Al-Hilal Saudi FC 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fayha 30% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fayha 1.19 xG and Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.63 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fayha attack 0.940 / defence 0.913 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.343 / defence 0.898. League average goals — home 1.404 / away 1.326. Al-Hilal Saudi FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.343 — the away xG of 1.63 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 50 Al-Fayha games / 50 Al-Hilal Saudi FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Fayha 27% | Draw 26% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 47%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fayha 3.70 | Draw 3.85 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.13. Al-Hilal Saudi FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Hilal Saudi FC as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Hilal Saudi FC if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.81 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 1.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Al-Fayha 50% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Fayha vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 4 Apr 2023, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Fayha 27% | Draw 26% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 56% | xG Al-Fayha 1.19 / Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.63 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Fayha attack 0.940 / def 0.913 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.343 / def 0.898 | league avg home 1.404 / away 1.326 • Poisson stance: Al-Hilal Saudi FC (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Al-Fayha xG
Expected Goals
1.63
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
56%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Fayha vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC kick off?
Al-Fayha vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC kicked off at 20:00 on Tuesday 4 April 2023 at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Fayha vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Al-Fayha 0 - 2 Al-Hilal Saudi FC.
Where is Al-Fayha vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC being played?
The match is being played at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Al-Fayha vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC part of?
Al-Fayha vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Fayha vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our statistical model gives Al-Fayha a 27% chance of winning, Al-Hilal Saudi FC a 47% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Al-Hilal Saudi FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Fayha vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Al-Fayha and Al-Hilal Saudi FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Fayha vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fayha and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Record (3 meetings): Al-Fayha 1W | Draws 1 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1W.
What form are Al-Fayha and Al-Hilal Saudi FC in?
Al-Fayha (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-W-L-D. Al-Hilal Saudi FC (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Al-Fayha's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against Al-Hilal Saudi FC's defensive record (0.90x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.19. Flip it around — Al-Hilal Saudi FC's attack (1.34x) against Al-Fayha's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 1.63.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-1 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Hilal Saudi FC Win
27%
3.68
26%
3.87
47%
2.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Al-Fayha xG
Total xG
2.81
1.63
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
3.68
27%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
2.13
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.77
44%
BTTS No
2.29
Clean Sheet
20%
5.08
31%
3.27
Win to Nil
5%
18.69
14%
6.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 9.8 | 8.0 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 11.6 | 9.4 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 6.9 | 5.6 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.7 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Fayha vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Al-Fayha and Al-Hilal Saudi FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Al-Fayha and 1.63 for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Fayha vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al-Fayha's recent record stands at 14W 17D 19L from 50 games, a 1.18 PPG return, with D-D-W-L-D in the last five. The sample for Al-Fayha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC, meanwhile, have gone 32W 13D 5L across 50 games — 2.18 PPG, with D-L-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Al-Hilal Saudi FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Hilal Saudi FC by 1.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al-Fayha heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Al-Fayha have managed 10W 8D 6L from 24 games — 1.58 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.18 PPG overall — Al-Fayha are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's away record stands at 14W 9D 1L across 24 trips, a 2.12 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Hilal Saudi FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Al-Fayha are averaging 0.92 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Al-Hilal Saudi FC are on 2.04 scored and 0.90 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 50 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Fayha
Blended
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Fayha and Al-Hilal Saudi FC in coming into this match?
Al-Fayha have gone 14W 17D 19L in their last 50 games (1.18 PPG), while Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 32W 13D 5L in their last 50 (2.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Fayha at home or Al-Hilal Saudi FC away?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's away record (2.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Fayha at home: 1.58 PPG; Al-Hilal Saudi FC away: 2.12 PPG.
Have Al-Fayha or Al-Hilal Saudi FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Fayha have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 21 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won the last 5 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Hilal Saudi FC won 3-0 on 18 Oct 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Fayha have gone 1W 0D 4L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Al-Hilal Saudi FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Al-Fayha
2
Draws
7
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fayha and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Fayha have won 1, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Fayha and Al-Hilal Saudi FC last play each other?
They last met on 21 May 2026, when Al-Fayha 0-1 Al-Hilal Saudi FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Fayha and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al-Fayha see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Fayha 29%, Al-Hilal Saudi FC 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 21% (Al-Fayha) and 50% (Al-Hilal Saudi FC).
On the defensive side: Al-Fayha keep a clean sheet in 54% of their matches; Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 42%; Al-Fayha have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Fayha home games / Al-Hilal Saudi FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Fayha play Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 29% of Al-Fayha's recent matches and 54% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Fayha vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 21% of Al-Fayha's recent games and 50% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Fayha and Al-Hilal Saudi FC tend to score early?
Al-Fayha have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Al-Fayha.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Hilal Saudi FC beat Al-Fayha 0-2 at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Fayha 1.19 xG and Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.63 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Al-Fayha fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Fayha attack 0.94 / defence 0.91 against Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.34 / defence 0.90, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Fayha 27% | Draw 26% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 47%, with Al-Hilal Saudi FC to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Fayha 30%, Al-Hilal Saudi FC 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Fayha's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Hilal Saudi FC arrived the stronger side — 2.18 PPG against 1.18. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Al-Fayha (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.92 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Hilal Saudi FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.88 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.