Al-Fateh 0-2 Al Taawon – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Taawon at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Fateh vs Al Taawon fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 1 as Al-Fateh welcome Al Taawon to Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 27 August 2022 at 16:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Al-Fateh — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: D L W L L. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Al-Fateh haven't played a Pro League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Al-Fateh's home record at Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Pro League appearances (1.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al Taawon have recorded 2W 7D 1L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Al Taawon haven't played a Pro League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Al Taawon's away record: 3W 4D 3L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Al-Fateh at 1.40 PPG versus Al Taawon's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Al-Fateh have won 1, Al Taawon 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Mar 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Al-Fateh in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Al Taawon in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 88% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Fateh 43% versus Al Taawon 73%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fateh 50% | Al Taawon 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fateh 1.40 xG and Al Taawon 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fateh attack 1.154 / defence 1.148 | Al Taawon attack 1.008 / defence 0.981. League average goals — home 1.240 / away 1.286. Data: 30 Al-Fateh games / 30 Al Taawon games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Al-Fateh 36% | Draw 25% | Al Taawon 40%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fateh 2.78 | Draw 4.00 | Al Taawon 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al Taawon at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Taawon offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.89 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al-Fateh 50% | Al Taawon 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (30 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Fateh vs Al Taawon | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Aug 2022, 16:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Fateh 36% | Draw 25% | Al Taawon 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 58% | xG Al-Fateh 1.40 / Al Taawon 1.49 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Fateh attack 1.154 / def 1.148 | Al Taawon attack 1.008 / def 0.981 | league avg home 1.240 / away 1.286 • Poisson stance: Al Taawon (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Al-Fateh xG
Expected Goals
1.49
Al Taawon xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Fateh vs Al Taawon kick off?
Al-Fateh vs Al Taawon kicked off at 16:45 on Saturday 27 August 2022 at Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Fateh vs Al Taawon?
Al-Fateh 0 - 2 Al Taawon.
Where is Al-Fateh vs Al Taawon being played?
The match is being played at Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Al-Fateh vs Al Taawon part of?
Al-Fateh vs Al Taawon is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Fateh vs Al Taawon?
Our statistical model gives Al-Fateh a 36% chance of winning, Al Taawon a 40% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Al Taawon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Fateh vs Al Taawon?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Al-Fateh and Al Taawon will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Fateh vs Al Taawon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fateh and Al Taawon?
Record (2 meetings): Al-Fateh 1W | Draws 1 | Al Taawon 0W.
What form are Al-Fateh and Al Taawon in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Al-Fateh (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Al-Fateh's attack at 1.15x the league average against Al Taawon's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 1.40 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al Taawon's attack versus Al-Fateh's defence, projects 1.49 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Taawon Win
36%
2.80
25%
4.03
40%
2.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
0 – 1
8.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Al-Fateh xG
Total xG
2.89
1.49
Al Taawon xG
2.80
36%
Home win
4.03
25%
Draw
2.53
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.71
42%
BTTS No
2.40
Clean Sheet
23%
4.43
25%
4.06
Win to Nil
8%
12.41
10%
10.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 8.3 | 6.2 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 11.6 | 8.6 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 8.1 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.8 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Fateh vs Al Taawon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Al-Fateh and Al Taawon expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Al-Fateh and 1.49 for Al Taawon, a combined total of 2.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Fateh vs Al Taawon?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al-Fateh come into this having played 30 games, going 9W 8D 13L for 1.17 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-L-L. Al-Fateh haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
On the other side, Al Taawon sit at 1.13 PPG from 30 outings (7W 13D 10L), a run that reads L-W-W-D-D across their last five. Al Taawon haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al-Fateh on 1.17 PPG, Al Taawon on 1.13. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Al-Fateh's home form reads 5W 3D 7L across 15 games on their own ground, a 1.20 PPG return.
Away from home, Al Taawon have taken 1.07 points per game from 15 outings (3W 7D 5L).
The Goals Picture
Al-Fateh are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Al Taawon are on 1.43 scored and 1.60 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Taawon in 73%.
Last 30 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Fateh
Pre-Season
Al Taawon
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Fateh and Al Taawon in coming into this match?
Al-Fateh have gone 9W 8D 13L in their last 30 games (1.17 PPG), while Al Taawon have gone 7W 13D 10L in their last 30 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Fateh at home or Al Taawon away?
Al-Fateh's home record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Fateh at home: 1.20 PPG; Al Taawon away: 1.07 PPG.
Have Al-Fateh or Al Taawon been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Fateh have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Al Taawon in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Fateh and Al Taawon runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 6 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Al Taawon have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Oct 2021, when Al-Fateh won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Fateh's record when hosting Al Taawon specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Al-Fateh
2
Draws
5
Al Taawon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fateh and Al Taawon?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Fateh have won 3, Al Taawon have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Fateh and Al Taawon last play each other?
They last met on 6 March 2026, when Al Taawon 3-2 Al-Fateh.
Who has won more matches between Al-Fateh and Al Taawon?
Al Taawon have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Fateh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Al Taawon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Fateh 47%, Al Taawon 80% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Al-Fateh and 60% for Al Taawon. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 47% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Fateh have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Fateh home games / Al Taawon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Fateh play Al Taawon?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 47% of Al-Fateh's games and 80% of Al Taawon's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Fateh vs Al Taawon usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Al-Fateh's matches and 60% of Al Taawon's.
Do Al-Fateh and Al Taawon tend to score early?
Al-Fateh have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Al Taawon in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al Taawon cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Al-Fateh.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Taawon beat Al-Fateh 0-2 at Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 1, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Fateh 1.40 xG and Al Taawon 1.49 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Al-Fateh fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Fateh attack 1.15 / defence 1.15 against Al Taawon attack 1.01 / defence 0.98, drawn from 30/30 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Fateh 36% | Draw 25% | Al Taawon 40%, with Al Taawon to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Fateh 50%, Al Taawon 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Fateh's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Al Taawon's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Fateh 1.17 PPG, Al Taawon 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al Taawon win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Fateh (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.07 scoring average — below par going forward. Al Taawon (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.73 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.