Al-Fateh 0-5 Al-Nassr – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Al-Nassr at 42% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Al-Fateh face Al-Nassr.

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Full Analysis

Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium plays host to Al-Fateh versus Al-Nassr in Pro League (matchday 3). Kick-off: Friday 25 August 2023 at 20:00 UK time.

Current Form

Al-Fateh's record over their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). Last five: W D L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

Al-Fateh's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Al-Nassr (all games): 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 — 1.50 points per game. Last five: W D W L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.

When travelling, Al-Nassr have posted 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 1.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

Head-to-Head

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, Al-Nassr edge it 2 wins to 0, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.3 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 31 May 2023, ended Al-Fateh 0–3 Al-Nassr — a Al-Nassr win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.3 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading

Al-Fateh half-time and goal-timing data (last 32 games, 16 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 88% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).

Al-Nassr half-time and goal-timing data (last 32 games, 16 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 71%; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Fateh 50% versus Al-Nassr 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fateh 59% | Al-Nassr 56%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fateh 1.27 xG and Al-Nassr 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fateh attack 1.071 / defence 1.016 | Al-Nassr attack 1.027 / defence 0.967. League average goals — home 1.227 / away 1.410. Data: built from Al-Fateh's last 32 games and Al-Nassr's last 32. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Al-Fateh 33% | Draw 26% | Al-Nassr 42%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fateh 3.06 | Draw 3.91 | Al-Nassr 2.39. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Al-Nassr as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Nassr if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.74 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Al-Fateh's last 10 home games and Al-Nassr's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.

Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Al-Fateh 70% (last 10 home games) | Al-Nassr 30% (last 10 away games).

The Poisson model's sample (Al-Fateh 32 games, Al-Nassr 32) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.

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