Al-Fateh 2-5 Al Kholood – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Fateh at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Fateh vs Al Kholood encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Al Kholood make the trip to Al Fateh club stadium to face Al-Fateh in Pro League, Regular Season - 17. The match kicks off on Tuesday 20 January 2026 at 17:30 UTC.
Current Form
Al-Fateh's overall Pro League record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: W W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fateh, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Fateh's home record at Al Fateh club stadium: 6W 0D 4L from 10 Pro League appearances (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Al Kholood have collected 0.30 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 1W 0D 9L. Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Al Kholood, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Kholood's form when playing away from home: 3W 0D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 exceeds their overall 0.30 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form ledger tips toward Al-Fateh. A 1.70 PPG lead over Al Kholood (2.00 vs 0.30) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Al-Fateh 0W, Al Kholood 1W, 1D.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Mar 2025, ended 1–2 with Al Kholood winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Al-Fateh — key trading statistics (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 79% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
Al Kholood — key trading statistics (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Fateh 67% and Al Kholood 55% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fateh 59% | Al Kholood 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fateh 1.83 xG and Al Kholood 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fateh attack 1.189 / defence 1.007 | Al Kholood attack 0.995 / defence 1.008. League average goals — home 1.527 / away 1.444. Data: 49 Al-Fateh games / 49 Al Kholood games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Fateh 46% | Draw 23% | Al Kholood 30%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fateh 2.17 | Draw 4.35 | Al Kholood 3.33. Al-Fateh hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.28. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.28 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.83 / 1.45) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Fateh as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Fateh if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.28 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 64% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al-Fateh 80% | Al Kholood 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Fateh vs Al Kholood | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Al Fateh club stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 20 Jan 2026, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Fateh 46% | Draw 23% | Al Kholood 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 64% | xG Al-Fateh 1.83 / Al Kholood 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Fateh attack 1.189 / def 1.007 | Al Kholood attack 0.995 / def 1.008 | league avg home 1.527 / away 1.444 • Poisson stance: Al-Fateh (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.83
Al-Fateh xG
Expected Goals
1.45
Al Kholood xG
64%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Fateh vs Al Kholood kick off?
Al-Fateh vs Al Kholood kicked off at 17:30 on Tuesday 20 January 2026 at Al Fateh club stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Fateh vs Al Kholood?
Al-Fateh 2 - 5 Al Kholood.
Where is Al-Fateh vs Al Kholood being played?
The match is being played at Al Fateh club stadium.
What competition is Al-Fateh vs Al Kholood part of?
Al-Fateh vs Al Kholood is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Fateh vs Al Kholood?
Our statistical model gives Al-Fateh a 46% chance of winning, Al Kholood a 30% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Al-Fateh the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Fateh vs Al Kholood?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Al-Fateh and Al Kholood will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Fateh vs Al Kholood have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fateh and Al Kholood?
Record (2 meetings): Al-Fateh 0W | Draws 1 | Al Kholood 1W.
What form are Al-Fateh and Al Kholood in?
Al-Fateh (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-W-D. Al Kholood (all comps): 1W-0D-9L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Al-Fateh's attacking strength (1.19x league average) is weighed against Al Kholood's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.83. Flip it around — Al Kholood's attack (0.99x) against Al-Fateh's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.45.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Fateh Win
46%
2.15
23%
4.31
30%
3.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 2
7.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.83
Al-Fateh xG
Total xG
3.28
1.45
Al Kholood xG
2.15
46%
Home win
4.31
23%
Draw
3.29
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.55
36%
BTTS No
2.81
Clean Sheet
24%
4.25
16%
6.23
Win to Nil
11%
9.15
5%
20.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 5.5 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 10.0 | 7.2 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 9.1 | 6.6 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 5.6 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Fateh vs Al Kholood?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Al-Fateh and Al Kholood expected to score?
The model projects 1.83 expected goals for Al-Fateh and 1.45 for Al Kholood, a combined total of 3.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Fateh vs Al Kholood?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al-Fateh's recent record stands at 17W 9D 23L from 49 games, a 1.22 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-D in the last five. The sample for Al-Fateh is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Kholood, meanwhile, have gone 16W 4D 29L across 49 games — 1.06 PPG, with L-W-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Al Kholood is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.22 PPG for Al-Fateh against 1.06 for Al Kholood. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Al-Fateh have managed 11W 3D 10L from 24 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al Kholood's away record stands at 6W 2D 16L across 24 trips, a 0.83 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Fateh come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Al-Fateh are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.73 conceded per game recently; Al Kholood are on 1.24 scored and 1.88 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Fateh have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 49 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Fateh
Blended
Al Kholood
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Fateh and Al Kholood in coming into this match?
Al-Fateh have gone 17W 9D 23L in their last 49 games (1.22 PPG), while Al Kholood have gone 16W 4D 29L in their last 49 (1.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Fateh at home or Al Kholood away?
Al-Fateh's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Fateh at home: 1.50 PPG; Al Kholood away: 0.83 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 21 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al Kholood won 2-5 on 20 Jan 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Fateh have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Al Kholood — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Al-Fateh
2
Draws
2
Al Kholood
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fateh and Al Kholood?
From 4 meetings on record, Al-Fateh have won 0, Al Kholood have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Fateh and Al Kholood last play each other?
They last met on 21 May 2026, when Al Kholood 0-0 Al-Fateh.
Who has won more matches between Al-Fateh and Al Kholood?
Al Kholood have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al-Fateh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Al Kholood are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 79% for Al-Fateh, 58% for Al Kholood — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Al-Fateh and 58% for Al Kholood. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al Kholood in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Fateh home games / Al Kholood away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Fateh play Al Kholood?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 79% of Al-Fateh's games and 58% of Al Kholood's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Fateh vs Al Kholood usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Al-Fateh's matches and 58% of Al Kholood's.
Do Al-Fateh and Al Kholood tend to score early?
Al-Fateh have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Al Kholood in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al Kholood run riot with a 2-5 hammering of Al-Fateh.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Kholood beat Al-Fateh 2-5 at Al Fateh club stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Fateh 1.83 xG and Al Kholood 1.45 xG, a combined 3.28. The scoreboard read 2-5 for 7 actual goals. Al Kholood outscored their 1.45 projection by 3.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Fateh attack 1.19 / defence 1.01 against Al Kholood attack 0.99 / defence 1.01, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Fateh 46% | Draw 23% | Al Kholood 30%, with Al-Fateh to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Al Kholood win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Fateh 59%, Al Kholood 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Fateh's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Al Kholood's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Fateh 1.22 PPG, Al Kholood 1.06 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al Kholood win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Fateh (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.54 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al Kholood (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.