Al-Fateh 2-3 Al Baten – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Fateh at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Fateh vs Al Baten fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 19 as Al-Fateh welcome Al Baten to Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 6 February 2022 at 14:05 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Fateh stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Pro League matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L L D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fateh, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Fateh at Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium this season: 2W 2D 3L from 7 home games — 1.14 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.86 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al Baten have recorded 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Al Baten, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Al Baten have gone 0W 3D 5L from 8 away fixtures this term (0.38 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.38 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.90 PPG (Al-Fateh) versus 1.00 (Al Baten). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Al-Fateh, 0 for Al Baten and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Sep 2021, ended 2–0 with Al-Fateh winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Al-Fateh trading profile (17 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Al Baten trading profile (17 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 14% of games (away games); they fail to score in 59% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Fateh 41% versus Al Baten 35%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Al-Fateh 35% | Al Baten 29%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fateh 1.34 xG and Al Baten 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fateh attack 1.119 / defence 1.452 | Al Baten attack 0.615 / defence 1.109. League average goals — home 1.083 / away 1.159. Data: 17 Al-Fateh games / 18 Al Baten games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Fateh 42% | Draw 31% | Al Baten 27%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fateh 2.38 | Draw 3.23 | Al Baten 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Fateh are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Fateh offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.38 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al-Fateh 43% | Al Baten 38% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Fateh vs Al Baten | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Feb 2022, 14:05 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Fateh 42% | Draw 31% | Al Baten 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 49% | xG Al-Fateh 1.34 / Al Baten 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Fateh attack 1.119 / def 1.452 | Al Baten attack 0.615 / def 1.109 | league avg home 1.083 / away 1.159 • Poisson stance: Al-Fateh (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Al-Fateh xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Al Baten xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Fateh vs Al Baten kick off?
Al-Fateh vs Al Baten kicked off at 14:05 on Sunday 6 February 2022 at Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Fateh vs Al Baten?
Al-Fateh 2 - 3 Al Baten.
Where is Al-Fateh vs Al Baten being played?
The match is being played at Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Al-Fateh vs Al Baten part of?
Al-Fateh vs Al Baten is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Fateh vs Al Baten?
Our statistical model gives Al-Fateh a 42% chance of winning, Al Baten a 27% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Al-Fateh the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Fateh vs Al Baten?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Al-Fateh and Al Baten will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Fateh vs Al Baten have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fateh and Al Baten?
Record (1 meetings): Al-Fateh 1W | Draws 0 | Al Baten 0W.
What form are Al-Fateh and Al Baten in?
Al-Fateh (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-L-D-D. Al Baten (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Al-Fateh's attack rating (1.12) and Al Baten's defence rating (1.11), the model arrives at 1.34 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al Baten's attack versus Al-Fateh's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 17/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.0%), 1-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Fateh Win
42%
2.37
31%
3.25
27%
3.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Al-Fateh xG
Total xG
2.38
1.03
Al Baten xG
2.37
42%
Home win
3.25
31%
Draw
3.69
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
36%
2.81
26%
3.83
Win to Nil
15%
6.68
7%
14.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 9.6 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 12.9 | 6.7 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 8.7 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 3.9 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Fateh vs Al Baten?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Al-Fateh and Al Baten expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Al-Fateh and 1.03 for Al Baten, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Fateh vs Al Baten?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 17 outings, Al-Fateh have picked up 1.06 PPG on a 4W 6D 7L record — W-L-L-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Al-Fateh is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Baten's form line: 3W 7D 7L from 17 games, 0.94 PPG, last five D-L-D-L-D. The sample for Al Baten is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al-Fateh on 1.06 PPG, Al Baten on 0.94. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Al-Fateh have posted 1.14 PPG from 7 outings (2W 2D 3L).
On the road, Al Baten have gone 0W 3D 4L from 7 away games — 0.43 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 0.94 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Al Baten's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Fateh come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Fateh are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Al Baten are on 0.76 scored and 1.12 conceded.
Last 17 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Fateh
Blended
Al Baten
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Fateh and Al Baten in coming into this match?
Al-Fateh have gone 4W 6D 7L in their last 17 games (1.06 PPG), while Al Baten have gone 3W 7D 7L in their last 17 (0.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Fateh at home or Al Baten away?
Al-Fateh's home record (1.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Fateh at home: 1.14 PPG; Al Baten away: 0.43 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Al-Fateh have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 31 Aug 2022, when Al-Fateh won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Fateh's record when hosting Al Baten specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Al-Fateh
0
Draws
1
Al Baten
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fateh and Al Baten?
From 4 meetings on record, Al-Fateh have won 3, Al Baten have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al-Fateh and Al Baten last play each other?
They last met on 18 February 2023, when Al-Fateh 2-0 Al Baten.
Who has won more matches between Al-Fateh and Al Baten?
Al-Fateh have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Fateh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Al Baten see a goal before the break in 43% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Fateh 43%, Al Baten 29% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 43% for Al-Fateh and 14% for Al Baten.
On the defensive side: Al-Fateh have failed to score in 29% of games; Al Baten in 71%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Fateh home games / Al Baten away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Fateh play Al Baten?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Al-Fateh's recent matches and 29% of Al Baten's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Fateh vs Al Baten usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Al-Fateh's recent games and 14% of Al Baten's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Fateh and Al Baten tend to score early?
Al-Fateh have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Al Baten in 43% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Al Baten defy the odds to beat Al-Fateh 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Baten beat Al-Fateh 2-3 at Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 19, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Fateh 1.34 xG and Al Baten 1.03 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Al Baten outscored their 1.03 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Fateh attack 1.12 / defence 1.45 against Al Baten attack 0.61 / defence 1.11, drawn from 17/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Fateh 42% | Draw 31% | Al Baten 27%, with Al-Fateh to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Al Baten win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 32% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Fateh 35%, Al Baten 29%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Fateh's trading profile (17 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did.
Al Baten's trading profile (17 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Fateh 1.06 PPG, Al Baten 0.94 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al Baten win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Fateh (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.57 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al Baten (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.43 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.