Al-Faisaly FC 2-2 Al Baten – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Al-Faisaly FC at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Faisaly FC vs Al Baten fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al-Faisaly FC and Al Baten meet at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 7. This fixture gets under way on Friday 1 October 2021 at 16:25 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al-Faisaly FC have collected 1.33 PPG across 6 Pro League outings this season: 2W 2D 2L. Last five: W L L W D. They are averaging 1.17 goals per game and conceding 1.33 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 83% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Al-Faisaly FC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al-Faisaly FC have posted 2W 0D 1L at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.33 — Al-Faisaly FC are significantly better at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Al Baten (all games): 1W 2D 3L across 6 Pro League outings this term — 0.83 points per game. Last five: W D L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 6 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Al Baten have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al Baten away from home this season: 0W 1D 2L from 3 away games — 0.33 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.33 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Al-Faisaly FC's 1.33 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Al Baten's 0.83 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading Data
Al-Faisaly FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (6 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games.
Al Baten goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (6 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they fail to score in 67% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Faisaly FC 83% versus Al Baten 33%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Faisaly FC 50% | Al Baten 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Faisaly FC 1.27 xG and Al Baten 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Faisaly FC attack 1.057 / defence 1.127 | Al Baten attack 0.607 / defence 1.012. League average goals — home 1.188 / away 1.223. Data: 6 Al-Faisaly FC games / 6 Al Baten games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Faisaly FC 43% | Draw 37% | Al Baten 21%. Fair-value odds: Al-Faisaly FC 2.33 | Draw 2.70 | Al Baten 4.76. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 37% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.11. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.11 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Faisaly FC at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 37% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Faisaly FC if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.11 combined xG gives a 35% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. This conflicts with form data: Al-Faisaly FC 100% | Al Baten 33% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Faisaly FC vs Al Baten | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 1 Oct 2021, 16:25 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Faisaly FC 43% | Draw 37% | Al Baten 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 45% | xG Al-Faisaly FC 1.27 / Al Baten 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Faisaly FC attack 1.057 / def 1.127 | Al Baten attack 0.607 / def 1.012 | league avg home 1.188 / away 1.223 • Poisson stance: Al-Faisaly FC (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Al-Faisaly FC xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Al Baten xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Faisaly FC vs Al Baten kick off?
Al-Faisaly FC vs Al Baten kicked off at 16:25 on Friday 1 October 2021 at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Faisaly FC vs Al Baten?
Al-Faisaly FC 2 - 2 Al Baten.
Where is Al-Faisaly FC vs Al Baten being played?
The match is being played at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Al-Faisaly FC vs Al Baten part of?
Al-Faisaly FC vs Al Baten is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Faisaly FC vs Al Baten?
Our statistical model gives Al-Faisaly FC a 43% chance of winning, Al Baten a 21% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw — making Al-Faisaly FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Faisaly FC vs Al Baten?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Al-Faisaly FC and Al Baten will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Faisaly FC vs Al Baten have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Faisaly FC and Al Baten?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al-Faisaly FC and Al Baten in?
Al-Faisaly FC (all comps): 2W-2D-2L in 6 | 1.33 PPG | GF 1.17 / GA 1.33 | L5 W-L-L-W-D. Al Baten (all comps): 1W-2D-3L in 6 | 0.83 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Al-Faisaly FC's attack at 1.06x the league average against Al Baten's defence at 1.01x — combine the two and it projects 1.27 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al Baten's attack (0.61x) against Al-Faisaly FC's defence (1.13x) — and the away total comes out at 0.84.
These ratings are built from 6/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.8%), 1-0 (13.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Faisaly FC Win
43%
2.34
37%
2.72
21%
4.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
12.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Al-Faisaly FC xG
Total xG
2.11
0.84
Al Baten xG
2.34
43%
Home win
2.72
37%
Draw
4.85
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.24
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
43%
2.31
28%
3.56
Win to Nil
18%
5.41
6%
17.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.1 | 10.2 | 4.3 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.4 | 12.9 | 5.4 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 8.2 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.2 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Faisaly FC vs Al Baten?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Al-Faisaly FC and Al Baten expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Al-Faisaly FC and 0.84 for Al Baten, a combined total of 2.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Faisaly FC vs Al Baten?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al-Faisaly FC come into this having played 6 games, going 2W 2D 2L for 1.33 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-W-D. It's still early in the season for Al-Faisaly FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Al Baten sit at 0.83 PPG from 6 outings (1W 2D 3L), a run that reads W-D-L-D-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Al Baten, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Faisaly FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.50 PPG clear of Al Baten — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Al-Faisaly FC's home form reads 2W 0D 1L across 3 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.33 PPG overall — Al-Faisaly FC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Al Baten have taken 0.33 points per game from 3 outings (0W 1D 2L). That's a step down from their 0.83 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Al Baten's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Faisaly FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Al-Faisaly FC are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Al Baten are on 0.50 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Faisaly FC have seen both teams score in 83% of their recent games.
Last 6 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Faisaly FC
Early Season
Al Baten
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Faisaly FC and Al Baten in coming into this match?
Al-Faisaly FC have gone 2W 2D 2L in their last 6 games (1.33 PPG), while Al Baten have gone 1W 2D 3L in their last 6 (0.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Faisaly FC at home or Al Baten away?
Al-Faisaly FC's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Faisaly FC at home: 2.00 PPG; Al Baten away: 0.33 PPG.
Have Al-Faisaly FC or Al Baten been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Faisaly FC have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Al Baten in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 February 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Al-Faisaly FC
1
Draws
1
Al Baten
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Faisaly FC and Al Baten?
From 2 meetings on record, Al-Faisaly FC have won 0, Al Baten have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Faisaly FC and Al Baten last play each other?
They last met on 27 February 2022, when Al Baten 1-0 Al-Faisaly FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Faisaly FC and Al Baten?
Al Baten have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al-Faisaly FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Al Baten are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 100% for Al-Faisaly FC, 33% for Al Baten — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for Al-Faisaly FC and 33% for Al Baten. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 0% and 0% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al Baten in 33%; Al Baten in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Faisaly FC home games / Al Baten away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Faisaly FC play Al Baten?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Al-Faisaly FC's games and 33% of Al Baten's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Faisaly FC vs Al Baten usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Al-Faisaly FC's matches and 33% of Al Baten's.
Do Al-Faisaly FC and Al Baten tend to score early?
Al-Faisaly FC have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Al Baten in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Faisaly FC and Al Baten share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Faisaly FC and Al Baten finished level at 2-2 at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 7, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Faisaly FC 1.27 xG and Al Baten 0.84 xG, a combined 2.11. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Al Baten outscored their 0.84 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Faisaly FC attack 1.06 / defence 1.13 against Al Baten attack 0.61 / defence 1.01, drawn from 6/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Faisaly FC 43% | Draw 37% | Al Baten 21%, with Al-Faisaly FC to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Faisaly FC 50%, Al Baten 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Faisaly FC's trading profile (6 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 83% of their matches — today it did.
Al Baten's trading profile (6 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Faisaly FC arrived the stronger side — 1.33 PPG against 0.83. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Al Baten (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.33 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.