Al-Ettifaq 1-0 Al Shabab – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Ettifaq at 41%, yet in-form Al Shabab provide a compelling counter-argument — this Al-Ettifaq vs Al Shabab fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Al Shabab make the trip to Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium to face Al-Ettifaq in Pro League, Regular Season - 26. The match kicks off on Sunday 14 May 2023 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al-Ettifaq have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L D W W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ettifaq, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Ettifaq's home record at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Pro League appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Al-Ettifaq are significantly better at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Al Shabab's overall Pro League record this term: 7W 1D 2L from 10 games (2.20 PPG). Last five: D W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al Shabab, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Al Shabab have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Al Shabab are the stronger side — 1.10 PPG clear of the hosts (2.20 vs 1.10). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Al-Ettifaq lead 0W to 1W over the last 3 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.3 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Dec 2022, ended 0–3 with Al Shabab winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Al-Ettifaq — key trading statistics (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Al Shabab — key trading statistics (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; they lead at the break 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ettifaq 46% versus Al Shabab 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ettifaq 49% | Al Shabab 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ettifaq 1.53 xG and Al Shabab 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ettifaq attack 0.931 / defence 0.872 | Al Shabab attack 1.262 / defence 1.092. League average goals — home 1.502 / away 1.239. Al Shabab have an above-average attack strength of 1.262 — the away xG of 1.36 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 55 Al-Ettifaq games / 55 Al Shabab games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 41% | Draw 25% | Al Shabab 34%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ettifaq 2.44 | Draw 4.00 | Al Shabab 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Ettifaq are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Al Shabab (2.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Ettifaq if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.89 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.3 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: Al-Ettifaq 40% | Al Shabab 100% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ettifaq vs Al Shabab | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 14 May 2023, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 41% | Draw 25% | Al Shabab 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 58% | xG Al-Ettifaq 1.53 / Al Shabab 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ettifaq attack 0.931 / def 0.872 | Al Shabab attack 1.262 / def 1.092 | league avg home 1.502 / away 1.239 • Poisson stance: Al-Ettifaq (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Al-Ettifaq xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Al Shabab xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ettifaq vs Al Shabab kick off?
Al-Ettifaq vs Al Shabab kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 14 May 2023 at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Ettifaq vs Al Shabab?
Al-Ettifaq 1 - 0 Al Shabab.
Where is Al-Ettifaq vs Al Shabab being played?
The match is being played at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium.
What competition is Al-Ettifaq vs Al Shabab part of?
Al-Ettifaq vs Al Shabab is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ettifaq vs Al Shabab?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ettifaq a 41% chance of winning, Al Shabab a 34% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Al-Ettifaq the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ettifaq vs Al Shabab?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Al-Ettifaq and Al Shabab will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ettifaq vs Al Shabab have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ettifaq and Al Shabab?
Record (3 meetings): Al-Ettifaq 0W | Draws 2 | Al Shabab 1W.
What form are Al-Ettifaq and Al Shabab in?
Al-Ettifaq (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-W-W-L. Al Shabab (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Al-Ettifaq's attack rating (0.93) and Al Shabab's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 1.53 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al Shabab's attack (1.26x) against Al-Ettifaq's defence (0.87x) — and the away total comes out at 1.36.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ettifaq Win
41%
2.42
25%
4.04
34%
2.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Al-Ettifaq xG
Total xG
2.89
1.36
Al Shabab xG
2.42
41%
Home win
4.04
25%
Draw
2.94
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.39
Clean Sheet
26%
3.91
22%
4.60
Win to Nil
11%
9.46
7%
13.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 7.6 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 11.6 | 7.9 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 8.8 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.5 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ettifaq vs Al Shabab?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Al-Ettifaq and Al Shabab expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Al-Ettifaq and 1.36 for Al Shabab, a combined total of 2.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ettifaq vs Al Shabab?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 55 outings, Al-Ettifaq have picked up 1.16 PPG on a 16W 16D 23L record — L-D-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Al-Ettifaq is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Shabab's form line: 31W 15D 9L from 55 games, 1.96 PPG, last five D-W-W-L-W. The sample for Al Shabab is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Al Shabab are the form team by 0.80 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al-Ettifaq.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Al-Ettifaq have posted 1.37 PPG from 27 outings (10W 7D 10L).
On the road, Al Shabab have gone 12W 8D 7L from 27 away games — 1.63 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al-Ettifaq are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Al Shabab are on 1.87 scored and 1.09 conceded.
Defensively: Al Shabab in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 55 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ettifaq
Blended
Al Shabab
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ettifaq and Al Shabab in coming into this match?
Al-Ettifaq have gone 16W 16D 23L in their last 55 games (1.16 PPG), while Al Shabab have gone 31W 15D 9L in their last 55 (1.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ettifaq at home or Al Shabab away?
Al Shabab's away record (1.63 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ettifaq at home: 1.37 PPG; Al Shabab away: 1.63 PPG.
Have Al-Ettifaq or Al Shabab been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Ettifaq have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Al Shabab in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al Shabab won 3-0 on 30 Dec 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Ettifaq have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Al Shabab — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Al-Ettifaq
5
Draws
1
Al Shabab
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ettifaq and Al Shabab?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Ettifaq have won 4, Al Shabab have won 1, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ettifaq and Al Shabab last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when Al-Ettifaq 1-1 Al Shabab.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ettifaq and Al Shabab?
Al-Ettifaq have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al-Ettifaq are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Al Shabab are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ettifaq 52%, Al Shabab 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Al-Ettifaq) and 67% (Al Shabab). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 26% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Ettifaq have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ettifaq home games / Al Shabab away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ettifaq play Al Shabab?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Al-Ettifaq's games and 70% of Al Shabab's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Ettifaq vs Al Shabab usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of Al-Ettifaq's matches and 67% of Al Shabab's.
Do Al-Ettifaq and Al Shabab tend to score early?
Al-Ettifaq have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Al Shabab in 93% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Ettifaq edge out Al Shabab 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ettifaq beat Al Shabab 1-0 at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 26, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ettifaq 1.53 xG and Al Shabab 1.36 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Al Shabab landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ettifaq attack 0.93 / defence 0.87 against Al Shabab attack 1.26 / defence 1.09, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ettifaq 41% | Draw 25% | Al Shabab 34%, with Al-Ettifaq to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ettifaq 49%, Al Shabab 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ettifaq's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not.
Al Shabab's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Shabab arrived the stronger side — 1.96 PPG against 1.16. Form was overturned, with Al-Ettifaq winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Al-Ettifaq (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.26 average — tighter than their form line. Al Shabab (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.74 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.