Al-Ettifaq 1-3 Al-Ittihad FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Ittihad FC at 41% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Ittihad FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Al-Ittihad FC make the trip to Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium to face Al-Ettifaq in Pro League, Regular Season - 33. The match kicks off on Thursday 14 May 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Al-Ettifaq (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al-Ettifaq have posted 5W 3D 2L at Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Al-Ettifaq are significantly better at Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Al-Ittihad FC's overall Pro League record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W L W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Al-Ittihad FC away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for Al-Ettifaq, 1.50 for Al-Ittihad FC — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Al-Ittihad FC hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 5 wins from 9 meetings. The hosts have won just 2 times in that span.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.2 per game across 9 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 16 Jan 2026, ended 1–0 with Al-Ettifaq winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Al-Ittihad FC have won 5 of 9 previous encounters, and at 3.2 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading
Al-Ettifaq half-time and goal-timing data (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Al-Ittihad FC half-time and goal-timing data (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 95% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 55% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Ettifaq 57% and Al-Ittihad FC 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ettifaq 57% | Al-Ittihad FC 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ettifaq 1.40 xG and Al-Ittihad FC 1.58 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ettifaq attack 0.969 / defence 1.005 | Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.098 / defence 0.958. League average goals — home 1.504 / away 1.429. Data: 66 Al-Ettifaq games / 65 Al-Ittihad FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 33% | Draw 26% | Al-Ittihad FC 41%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ettifaq 3.03 | Draw 3.85 | Al-Ittihad FC 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 2.97. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.97 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.40 / 1.58) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Ittihad FC are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Ittihad FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.97 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al-Ettifaq 50% | Al-Ittihad FC 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Ittihad FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 14 May 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 33% | Draw 26% | Al-Ittihad FC 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 61% | xG Al-Ettifaq 1.40 / Al-Ittihad FC 1.58 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ettifaq attack 0.969 / def 1.005 | Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.098 / def 0.958 | league avg home 1.504 / away 1.429 • Poisson stance: Al-Ittihad FC (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Al-Ettifaq xG
Expected Goals
1.58
Al-Ittihad FC xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Ittihad FC kick off?
Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Ittihad FC kicked off at 19:00 on Thursday 14 May 2026 at Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Al-Ettifaq 1 - 3 Al-Ittihad FC.
Where is Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Ittihad FC being played?
The match is being played at Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium.
What competition is Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Ittihad FC part of?
Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Ittihad FC is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ettifaq a 33% chance of winning, Al-Ittihad FC a 41% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Al-Ittihad FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Al-Ettifaq and Al-Ittihad FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Ittihad FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ettifaq and Al-Ittihad FC?
Record (9 meetings): Al-Ettifaq 2W | Draws 2 | Al-Ittihad FC 5W.
What form are Al-Ettifaq and Al-Ittihad FC in?
Al-Ettifaq (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-W-D-W. Al-Ittihad FC (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Al-Ettifaq's attack rating (0.97) and Al-Ittihad FC's defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 1.40 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al-Ittihad FC's attack (1.10x) against Al-Ettifaq's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.58.
These ratings are built from 66/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 2-1 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ittihad FC Win
33%
3.04
26%
3.80
41%
2.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
0 – 1
8.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Al-Ettifaq xG
Total xG
2.97
1.58
Al-Ittihad FC xG
3.04
33%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
2.45
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.55
Clean Sheet
21%
4.84
25%
4.04
Win to Nil
7%
14.71
10%
9.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 8.1 | 6.4 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 11.3 | 8.9 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 7.9 | 6.2 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.7 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Al-Ettifaq and Al-Ittihad FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Al-Ettifaq and 1.58 for Al-Ittihad FC, a combined total of 2.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al-Ettifaq's recent record stands at 27W 15D 23L from 65 games, a 1.48 PPG return, with L-L-W-D-W in the last five.
Al-Ittihad FC, meanwhile, have gone 41W 12D 12L across 65 games — 2.08 PPG, with W-L-W-D-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Ittihad FC by 0.60 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al-Ettifaq heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Al-Ettifaq have managed 12W 8D 12L from 32 games — 1.38 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Ittihad FC's away record stands at 15W 10D 7L across 32 trips, a 1.72 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Al-Ettifaq are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Al-Ittihad FC are on 1.97 scored and 1.14 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Ittihad FC in 63%.
Last 65 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ettifaq
Current Season
Al-Ittihad FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ettifaq and Al-Ittihad FC in coming into this match?
Al-Ettifaq have gone 27W 15D 23L in their last 65 games (1.48 PPG), while Al-Ittihad FC have gone 41W 12D 12L in their last 65 (2.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ettifaq at home or Al-Ittihad FC away?
Al-Ittihad FC's away record (1.72 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ettifaq at home: 1.38 PPG; Al-Ittihad FC away: 1.72 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 14 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Ettifaq won 0-5 on 10 May 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Ettifaq have gone 0W 1D 4L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Al-Ittihad FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Al-Ettifaq
2
Draws
6
Al-Ittihad FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ettifaq and Al-Ittihad FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Ettifaq have won 2, Al-Ittihad FC have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ettifaq and Al-Ittihad FC last play each other?
They last met on 14 May 2026, when Al-Ettifaq 1-3 Al-Ittihad FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ettifaq and Al-Ittihad FC?
Al-Ittihad FC have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al-Ettifaq are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Al-Ittihad FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ettifaq 53%, Al-Ittihad FC 72% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Al-Ettifaq) and 56% (Al-Ittihad FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 34% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Ettifaq have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ettifaq home games / Al-Ittihad FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ettifaq play Al-Ittihad FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Al-Ettifaq's games and 72% of Al-Ittihad FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Ittihad FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Al-Ettifaq's matches and 56% of Al-Ittihad FC's.
Do Al-Ettifaq and Al-Ittihad FC tend to score early?
Al-Ettifaq have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Al-Ittihad FC in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Ittihad FC cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Al-Ettifaq.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ittihad FC beat Al-Ettifaq 1-3 at Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium, Regular Season - 33, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ettifaq 1.40 xG and Al-Ittihad FC 1.58 xG, a combined 2.97. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Al-Ittihad FC outscored their 1.58 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ettifaq attack 0.97 / defence 1.00 against Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.10 / defence 0.96, drawn from 66/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ettifaq 33% | Draw 26% | Al-Ittihad FC 41%, with Al-Ittihad FC to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ettifaq 57%, Al-Ittihad FC 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ettifaq's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Ittihad FC's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Ittihad FC arrived the stronger side — 2.08 PPG against 1.48. Form held, and they took the win. Al-Ettifaq (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.53 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Ittihad FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.88 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.